2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[LarryWx]

Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th:

As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42).

If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 6th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67).

One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations.

[Hammy]

Something worth noting, the Euro is a good model to watch for when the switch flips--every prior season that I've followed the models, leading up to the switch, it would start trying to develop tropical storms over Africa before gradually moving up the timeline (and moving them over water)

So far it's still showing them coming off at around 20 latitude, so we could see a week or so delay with the bell, thanks to the monsoon trough positioning. But when that starts showing up, we'll pretty much know for sure it's go time.

[Category5Kaiju]

Something worth noting, the Euro is a good model to watch for when the switch flips--every prior season that I've followed the models, leading up to the switch, it would start trying to develop tropical storms over Africa before gradually moving up the timeline (and moving them over water)

So far it's still showing them coming off at around 20 latitude, so we could see a week or so delay with the bell, thanks to the monsoon trough positioning. But when that starts showing up, we'll pretty much know for sure it's go time.

It's looking increasingly likely that this season is trying to emphasize quality over quantity. I think "season-cancelers" aren't really considering the fact that there's literally a powerful hurricane in the makings right now that would significantly boost our total ACE score even before August 20 rolls around.

[Steve]

And in 2005, apparently even Dennis and Emily weren't enough to stop it.

IIRC, in 2005 there was a New Orleans-based user season canceling a week or two before Katrina hit.

Yeah, I can't remember who that was but he doesn't post anymore I don't think. He was believing the old wives tale that once a front comes down, that's probably it for the season. I told him no dice and expect a response from the tropics if there were more early fronts. He wasn't buying it, but between Katrina, Rita, Stan and even Wilma for a brief part of its track, the Gulf wasn't finished.

[toad strangler]

I've seen some chatter around other places and here about how far N waves have been hopping into the Atlantic off Africa and possible a reason for no development. I dunno, seems like an overreach. Here we have a blossoming Ernesto and the African wave train isn't that far N. I don't buy it.

https://www.sat24.com/en-gb/continent/af

[cycloneye]

The discusions about the lack of development from the models for middle to long range are going on in the net. While this is the talking, a possible major cane looms in the next few days.

 https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1823324692482023517

[AnnularCane]

I've seen some chatter around other places and here about how far N waves have been hopping into the Atlantic off Africa and possible a reason for no development. I dunno, seems like an overreach. Here we have a blossoming Ernesto and the African wave train isn't that far N. I don't buy it.

https://www.sat24.com/en-gb/continent/af

I was thinking the same thing (while getting dressed this morning ). We just got Ernesto from an African wave and they're suddenly too far north to develop? Can they just switch latitudes like that or is there more to this?

[cycloneye]

And more chatter.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1823356664751312974

[LarryWx]

Based on model/NHC progs and considering how warm the SSTs are way up above Bermuda, it is a reasonable possibility that Ernesto could bring 2024 season to date ACE to ~65 as of Aug 20th. If 2024 is at 65 then, it would still be in 6th place, just one back of the 5th place as of Aug 8th:

As of Aug 8th, 2024 was at 41. That was in 5th behind only 2005 (74), 1933 (54), 1926 (47), and 1916 (42).

If 2024 has 65 as of Aug 20th, it appears it would then still be in 6th behind only 2005 (~85), 1933 (~80), 1899 (~77), 1886 (~75), and 1893 (67).

One would think that keeping this in mind would stop any season cancel declarations.

Projected Aug 20 ACE W of 60W: 2024 could rank as high as 5th

1) 2005: 78 of 85 (92%)
2) 1886: 69 of 75 (92%)
3) 1899: 69 of 77 (90%)
4) 1933: 63 of 80 (79%)
5) 2024: 55 of 65 (85%)

1893 is way back with only 41 of 67 (61%) W of 60W

[MarioProtVI]

I've seen some chatter around other places and here about how far N waves have been hopping into the Atlantic off Africa and possible a reason for no development. I dunno, seems like an overreach. Here we have a blossoming Ernesto and the African wave train isn't that far N. I don't buy it.

https://www.sat24.com/en-gb/continent/af

I was thinking the same thing (while getting dressed this morning ). We just got Ernesto from an African wave and they're suddenly too far north to develop? Can they just switch latitudes like that or is there more to this?

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1823356664751312974




It seems like Ernesto was one of the waves that came off further south looking at this conversation. If I recall I think 2018 and/or 2019 had this problem where waves were coming off too far north in August. It does seem the waves come off further south again starting around the 24th or so. This might have a slight detriment to the forecasts, probably at least 10-15 ACE and a named storm or two. Idk.

[Emmett_Brown]

And more chatter.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1823356664751312974

Sure, maybe waves are coming off further N, which means they might not develop right away. But we can't assume that these waves won't eventually develop, and the further W they develop, the more they could threaten land. Look at Debby... it started as a large SAL choked wave that extended very far N and S, and inevitably moistened up and developed when it was already near land. So this could explain why models don't see development, but it certainly doesn't mean the models are right... the development is likely just delayed but inevitable. This could be a season where the bulk of cyclogenesis happens with less lead time.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Outside Ernesto, the next 10-14 days look rather quiet. If had to guess by looking at the eps ensembles, the Aug 25th-30th timeframe might be when activity resumes.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like Captain Barbossa’s timeline still holds true for 2024. The only difference is, those in doubt seem to have forgotten Beryl and Ernesto

[LarryWx]

Outside Ernesto, the next 10-14 days look rather quiet. If had to guess by looking at the eps ensembles, the Aug 25th-30th timeframe might be when activity resumes.

Outside of a potential ACE addition of ~24 over the next 10 or so days, it does look quiet on the models although they could easily be missing something as we know. But even if not, getting 24 ACE (with most of that W of 60W by the way) during just an 11 day period would in itself mean way above normal activity. Normal 8/13-23 ACE during the very active era of 1991-2020 was only ~9!

[WeatherBoy2000]

Outside Ernesto, the next 10-14 days look rather quiet. If had to guess by looking at the eps ensembles, the Aug 25th-30th timeframe might be when activity resumes.

Outside of a potential ACE addition of ~24 over the next 10 or so days, it does look quiet on the models although they could easily be missing something as we know. But even if not, getting 24 ACE (with most of that W of 60W by the way) during just an 11 day period would in itself mean way above normal activity. Normal 8/13-23 ACE is only ~9!

Yeah from ace/hurricane standpoint we're on track with the seasonal forecasts. Two hurricanes, including a potential longtracking major during the pre-bell ringing August period is good performance.

[LarryWx]

Outside Ernesto, the next 10-14 days look rather quiet. If had to guess by looking at the eps ensembles, the Aug 25th-30th timeframe might be when activity resumes.

Outside of a potential ACE addition of ~24 over the next 10 or so days, it does look quiet on the models although they could easily be missing something as we know. But even if not, getting 24 ACE (with most of that W of 60W by the way) during just an 11 day period would in itself mean way above normal activity. Normal 8/13-23 ACE is only ~9!

Yeah from ace/hurricane standpoint we're on track with the seasonal forecasts. Two hurricanes, including a potential longtracking major during the pre-bell ringing August period is good performance.

Ernesto will make 3 hurricanes, not two. During the very active era of 1991-2020, the 2nd one wasn’t on avg until Aug 26th!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

[CyclonicFury]

FWIW the EPS does show a lot of activity past Day 15 into September, so it could just be a delayed "switch flip" due to the waves coming off too far north.

Regardless, getting 3 hurricanes (and possibly 2 majors) before August 20 is very impressive, even though a short break could occur after Ernesto.

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1823337201926652092

[Teban54]

Outside of a potential ACE addition of ~24 over the next 10 or so days, it does look quiet on the models although they could easily be missing something as we know. But even if not, getting 24 ACE (with most of that W of 60W by the way) during just an 11 day period would in itself mean way above normal activity. Normal 8/13-23 ACE is only ~9!

Yeah from ace/hurricane standpoint we're on track with the seasonal forecasts. Two hurricanes, including a potential longtracking major during the pre-bell ringing August period is good performance.

Ernesto will make 3 hurricanes, not two. During the very active era of 1991-2020, the 2nd one wasn’t on avg until Aug 26th!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

I believe they meant August only. If we're talking about the entire season, we already have a surefire long-tracking major, not just a potential one.

[WeatherBoy2000]

Outside of a potential ACE addition of ~24 over the next 10 or so days, it does look quiet on the models although they could easily be missing something as we know. But even if not, getting 24 ACE (with most of that W of 60W by the way) during just an 11 day period would in itself mean way above normal activity. Normal 8/13-23 ACE is only ~9!

Yeah from ace/hurricane standpoint we're on track with the seasonal forecasts. Two hurricanes, including a potential longtracking major during the pre-bell ringing August period is good performance.

Ernesto will make 3 hurricanes, not two. During the very active era of 1991-2020, the 2nd one wasn’t on avg until Aug 26th!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

I'm aware of Beryl, I was only talking about the first half of August prior to the peak because it seems people were expecting more storms now.

[SFLcane]

Outside of a potential ACE addition of ~24 over the next 10 or so days, it does look quiet on the models although they could easily be missing something as we know. But even if not, getting 24 ACE (with most of that W of 60W by the way) during just an 11 day period would in itself mean way above normal activity. Normal 8/13-23 ACE is only ~9!

Yeah from ace/hurricane standpoint we're on track with the seasonal forecasts. Two hurricanes, including a potential longtracking major during the pre-bell ringing August period is good performance.

Ernesto will make 3 hurricanes, not two. During the very active era of 1991-2020, the 2nd one wasn’t on avg until Aug 26th!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/

Indeed! This gibberish nonsense downcasting the season and questioning seasonal outlooks 2 weeks into Aug lol isn't a good look. The hurricanes will come patience is a virtue this time of the year.