Possible NW Gulf Development Late This Week?

[BigA]

Radar shows a spin east of Brownsville...probably not at the surface.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

KFDM,do you think NHC may start to mention it at the next Tropical Weather Outlook?

I would think so, but who knows. lol.

[duris]

New Orleans AFD this PM:

.SHORT TERM...
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS CONCERNING
THE FINE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEY GENERALLY AGREE THAT
WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.

DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NON-TROPICAL...BUT
WILL STILL MAKE USE OF THE VERY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE AREA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LAKE CHARLES AREA AND THEN TOWARD
NORTHERN LOUISIANA BEFORE TAKING MORE OF AN EASTERLY TRACK AND
FORCING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE TWO
AND ONE QUARTER INCHES UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...
WITH NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION
FROM SEVERAL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AREA AVERAGED RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FOUR TO
SIX INCH RANGE WITH HIGHER LOCAL AMOUNTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION
CONCERNING THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...PLEASE REFER TO THE
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT /ESFLIX/ AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK /HWOLIX/.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN A /SEE TEXT/
AREA FOR SATURDAY. THIS IS MAINLY IN DEFERENCE TO THE NAM...WHICH
DEVELOPS A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND THEREBY FORECASTS STRONG STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY. THOUGH
THE NAM SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING THE INTENSITY OF THE LOW...IT IS
STILL REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE
AREAS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATER SPOUTS...AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH ONE
ANOTHER. FOR MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS THREAT...PLEASE
REFER TO OUTLOOK PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmmm is this the beginning of something
off the lower TX coastline? It looks a little
suspicious in my opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Sanibel]

Came in to post about same thing.


Suspicious twist about to exit near Brownsville.

[somethingfunny]

We've got thunderstorms coming into Dallas from the east right now....which might suggest something is brewing in the Gulf....but according to this surface map, it's got more to do with the high pressure centered in Louisiana.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Weak low pressure is developing near Brownsville, Should slowly move N/NE the next few days. Some development is possible.

[vbhoutex]

Weak low pressure is developing near Brownsville, Should slowly move N/NE the next few days. Some development is possible.

On the radar it is now very obvious that we have at least a mid level circulation about to enter the GOM at Matamoras, MX. I am going to be following this very closely!!! I don't want to raise fears for no reason, but if I lived anywhere on the Gulf Coast from Brownsville to NO my eyes would be trained to the W GOM for the next few days. My concern is not necessarily for tropical development even though I think it is becoming more possible, but for excessive rainfall amounts causing flooding.

[Diva]

I told y'all back on page one of this thread that I figured something was gonna come out of all of this because my deep freeze is full! You'd think I would have learned to NOT have a full freezer during the month of September.

I'm just wondering when the NHC will at least notice that there is something of interest going on with this and give us a yellow or orange circle?

[vbhoutex]

Weak low pressure is developing near Brownsville, Should slowly move N/NE the next few days. Some development is possible.

On the radar it is now very obvious that we have at least a mid level circulation about to enter the GOM at Matamoras, MX. I am going to be following this very closely!!! I don't want to raise fears for no reason, but if I lived anywhere on the Gulf Coast from Brownsville to NO my eyes would be trained to the W GOM for the next few days. My concern is not necessarily for tropical development even though I think it is becoming more possible, but for excessive rainfall amounts causing flooding.

Buoys in the area do not give any clear indication of a surface reflection at this time, but it bears watching.

[LaBreeze]

Local met mentioned this evening the possibility of some slow development. He even mentioned that it could be another "Allison-like" scenario setting up.

[wxman57]

It does appear as though a weak low may form off the TX coast over the next 24-48 hours, but it'll be in a region of moderate SW wind shear (25-40 kt SW-WSW winds aloft). Sort of a hybrid low that will likely move inland on Sunday into the upper TX coast. May be slow moving, so the greatest risk is for very heavy rain upper TX and LA coasts.

GFS, EC and CMC all handle it differently. GFS moves the weak low inland Sunday and north to OK. European moves it inland a little ways then drops it back into the Gulf early next week. Canadian drives it inland to the Red River THEN drops it back toward the Gulf next week. All models indicate moderate wind shear present, so this may be a hybrid low that's sheared. Not too different from the low off the NE U.S. coast that the NHC is ignoring, but probably weaker.

It's certainly something to keep an eye on, primarily for the potential for heavy rainfall.

P.S.
Uh Oh! I just noticed that the next name for 2009 is "Grace". Last time, Grace was a trof along the TX coast that got named because it was producing TS winds at the rigs offshore. The plane couldn't close off a circulation. Deja vu?

[srainhoutx]

It does appear as though a weak low may form off the TX coast over the next 24-48 hours, but it'll be in a region of moderate SW wind shear (25-40 kt SW-WSW winds aloft). Sort of a hybrid low that will likely move inland on Sunday into the upper TX coast. May be slow moving, so the greatest risk is for very heavy rain upper TX and LA coasts.

GFS, EC and CMC all handle it differently. GFS moves the weak low inland Sunday and north to OK. European moves it inland a little ways then drops it back into the Gulf early next week. Canadian drives it inland to the Red River THEN drops it back toward the Gulf next week. All models indicate moderate wind shear present, so this may be a hybrid low that's sheared. Not too different from the low off the NE U.S. coast that the NHC is ignoring, but probably weaker.

It's certainly something to keep an eye on, primarily for the potential for heavy rainfall.

Thanks for the update wxman57. Flooding issues look to be the main threat from whatever happens IMHO as well.

[mpic]

Is there any evidence of lack of evidence, so to speak, to indicate that this will NOT involve any wind problems?

[wxman57]

Here's a current surface plot/satellite. Nothing to see yet. VERY weak surface trof along the TX coast. Pressures not very low. No organized convection.

[chris1985]

Local Met mentions this Low. Here's a video link.

http://www.kplctv.com/global/Category.a ... Start=true

[HurricaneJoe22]

I thought the Texas people would appreciate this.....

http://www.gocomics.com/nonsequitur/

[Flyinman]

Too funny!! Guess it is also time to get out the paper boats and race them down the street!

[Ptarmigan]

It does appear as though a weak low may form off the TX coast over the next 24-48 hours, but it'll be in a region of moderate SW wind shear (25-40 kt SW-WSW winds aloft). Sort of a hybrid low that will likely move inland on Sunday into the upper TX coast. May be slow moving, so the greatest risk is for very heavy rain upper TX and LA coasts.

GFS, EC and CMC all handle it differently. GFS moves the weak low inland Sunday and north to OK. European moves it inland a little ways then drops it back into the Gulf early next week. Canadian drives it inland to the Red River THEN drops it back toward the Gulf next week. All models indicate moderate wind shear present, so this may be a hybrid low that's sheared. Not too different from the low off the NE U.S. coast that the NHC is ignoring, but probably weaker.

It's certainly something to keep an eye on, primarily for the potential for heavy rainfall.

P.S.
Uh Oh! I just noticed that the next name for 2009 is "Grace". Last time, Grace was a trof along the TX coast that got named because it was producing TS winds at the rigs offshore. The plane couldn't close off a circulation. Deja vu?

Whatever happens, we will see rain. It would be interesting if that did become Grace. Grace made landfall in August of 2003. Quite a mess.

[cycloneye]

367
ABNT20 KNHC 102346
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG