Wave over eastern Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 92L)

[TwisterFanatic]

[KWT]

Got some turning looking at the radar for sure and its got some nice convection but I'd like to see it hold for a while rather then just flare up and decay.

[cycloneye]

732
ABNT20 KNHC 032344
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED ITS LAST ADVISORY ON
TROPICAL STORM COLIN WHICH HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS
OF COLIN WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE REGENERATION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[KWT]

Hmmm looks like they think development is possible perhaps inthe W.Caribbean, certainly most models develop something weak in that region....

Given the synoptics if this one does get going far enough east probably will strengthen quite quickly, wouldn't at all surprise me to see this region become our next system in the W.Cairbbean, will be a slow process till it manages to get a little further away from land.

[MHurricanes]

KWT,

This disturbance bears watching. It appears to be holding its own. Could be a "sleeper."

- MHurricanes ("Go Canes")

[StormClouds63]

If it develops, the high pressure ridge pushes it west or west-northwest ... not a U.S. threat as long as that high remains entrenched. KFDM affirmed this on broadcast tonight. Chance for Danielle, but it crashes into central America or southern Mexico. Chance of U.S. impact minimal. At least it's an area to watch ... nothing else except for ex-Colin.

[Ivanhater]

I don't see how you have both...if the trough is really digging like the models have been showing to turn Colin, there will not be a big ridge over the southeast to bury this one into Belize if this were to develop.



However, if it's weak it will likely continue west into Central America, but if it does indeed develop, there could be a threat to the U.S

[HURAKAN]

Interesting

[Weatherfreak000]

Looking good tonight, circulation appears to be developing.

[Wx_Warrior]

Ah....it's not a hurricane season w/o Ivan going up against his favorite pro met.

Now, the season can begin!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks for mentioning that Ivan. I was thinking the same thing yesterday when the models flopped and showed nearly due west. For our area the high is forecast to retrograde westward which seems to me would leave a weakness in the eastern to central gulf. But all along I have been saying the trough would not be as strong or dig as far south as the gfs has been showing. Will be interesting to see which scenario unfolds IF something develops in the central/western caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

Ah....it's not a hurricane season w/o Ivan going up against his favorite pro met.

Now, the season can begin!

I just put up my thoughts and explain them. Questioning (backed up with data) is always the fastest way to learn. I agree with the GFS yesterday when it actually developed a storm would gain a lot more latitude with a trough digging over the east. I can't see it being both ways, a strong trough digging over the east but a strong ridge slamming it into CA? Like I said though, if it doesn't develop then off to CA...

[Dean4Storms]

I'm with Ivan, it also depends on how fast it develops and how deep it becomes.

[KWT]

I suspect the western option comes off, this one probably won't develop too quickly until it actually can get a better looking lower level set-up, if that does happen then conditions look favourable for some decent strengthening IMO.

My personal punt last night on another board was for something like this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gilda_1954_track.png

[HURAKAN]

Lets see what D-Max can do!

[cycloneye]

Thread is closed because is invest 92L. Go to active storms forum to continue the discussions.