Pouch PGI45L - SW of CV Islands - (Is invest 94L)

[ROCK]

uh..someone might have a problem with this track...

[ROCK]

looks Ivanish.....sorry Michael....

if it hops around Jamiaca then it might be Ivan reincarnated...

[South Texas Storms]

hows the gom ridge looking at that time on this run?

[South Texas Storms]

uh oh...at hour 300 strengthening just s.e. of texas.

[ROCK]

yeah STS that could be a problem....but at 336...more changes coming...

[Vortex]

look out texas



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_336l.gif

[Aquawind]

Hour 300...um it's going for Cape Hatteras...lol j/k

[Vortex]

hello se texas



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_372l.gif

[blp]

Credit to ColinDelia who first spotted this and Vortex for keeping up with it. You guys have been on this thing. We still need more runs on this. The GFS in the past has had many days of runs showing development and suddenly poofs systems, but I will say that we are dealing with a new GFS this year and so far it has done a good job with the non redevelopment of Gaston and now the late development of Karl so it is peaking my interest.

[South Texas Storms]

oh yeah no doubt rock. i think every gom state will see a hit on the gfs in the next few days. but right now im thinking this is a big gom threat.

[BigA]

00Z NOGAPS appears on it starting at the 96 hour timeframe, as a just closed low in the central Atlantic.

[Vortex]

The overall trends have certainly been to bring this towards the western gulf but wayyyy to early to say for sure.....

[ROCK]

mid Texas coast.....good to have it pointing at you in the long range than say 144hr....

[BigA]

oh yeah no doubt rock. i think every gom state will see a hit on the gfs in the next few days. but right now im thinking this is a big gom threat.

Yeah, the biggest thing to get from this is that every single GFS run for the last three days (or so it seems) shows a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico around the 27th.

[South Texas Storms]

kinda looks like another ike on the gfs. im feeling a western gom hit with this...i know its wayy far out...just a hunch

[Vortex]

As biga pointed out nogaps on it now as well....out 96 hours so far....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

The overall trends have certainly been to bring this towards the western gulf but wayyyy to early to say for sure.....

agree....you get a deep enough trof and this could be Charley or Wilma....but what we take from this is in the short to med term is developes a low lat low into the carib....not a "recurver"....long range CMC would be cool to look at later....

[blp]

Granted picking a landfall that late in the run is a fruitless exercise but that would be an amazing run in that you would be having a strong Hurricane with a Texas landfall on 9-30 to 10-1 which is unusually late in the season for Texas if you look back historically. But I would say that with the persistent pattern this season of more ridging over the CONUS and the weakness over the Atlantic it looks quite feasible.

[South Texas Storms]

agreed blp. that SE ridge doesnt want to budge.

[RachelAnna]

uh oh...at hour 300 strengthening just s.e. of texas.

I'd rather be looking at a Texas storm now, 300 hours out, than 72 hours out!