Pouch PGI46L - Near Windwards - (Is invest 95L)

[Ivanhater]

and its back to fl this run...im starting to see a pattern though...it looks more and more like a rather significant trough long term that will lift this storm out of the carribean....

Yeah, it seems like this will likely get into the Gulf. The key will be the timing and progression of the trough. Will it dig deep to pick it up or just swing to the north and leave a weakness in the gulf for it to head NW or N? We just don't know yet.

[South Texas Storms]

yeah i see that pattern too vortex. they key to its landfall will be dependent on if a ridge builds in after the trough and sends it west into tex/mex or if a ridge doesnt build back in after the trough and a north/east gom landfall will be possible.

[blp]

00z & 12z runs = E.GOM and 06z & 18z runs = W.GOM. Lets see if the 06z continues the pattern.....

[ROCK]

and its back to fl this run...im starting to see a pattern though...it looks more and more like a rather significant trough long term that will lift this storm out of the carribean....

I think it will make the GOM.....BOC to FL straits...after that who knows.....

[South Texas Storms]

one thing i know for sure about this one: its going to be a crazy and fun one to track. i find it interesting that the gfs landfalls so far have been either texas or florida and no in between.

[ROCK]

you guys have a fun with the EURO tonight!!

[SFLcane]

Few runs with this system moving north and northeast out if the carribean sea heading towards the Florida possibly. Don't really put much into anything pass 120hrs.

[Ivanhater]

one thing i know for sure about this one: its going to be a crazy and fun one to track. i find it interesting that the gfs landfalls so far have been either texas or florida and no in between.

Well 18z would likely have been Louisiana or eastward if extended.

[Ivanhater]

you guys have a fun with the EURO tonight!!

Nope..my alarm at 5:15 am comes early! Ugh I can hear it in my head now

[kohlejgreene]

what models are you guys tracking these landfalls on

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry but I'm still not sold on anything the GFS or any model shows 2 weeks out.
But if this were to pan out then I would look for an Opal type track. IMO

[Ivanhater]

I'm sorry but I'm still not sold on anything the GFS or any model shows 2 weeks out.
But if this were to pan out then I would look for an Opal type track. IMO

Pensacola remembers that one well.

[South Texas Storms]

what models are you guys tracking these landfalls on

weve been looking closesly at the gfs lately

[kohlejgreene]

what models are you guys tracking these landfalls on

weve been looking closesly at the gfs lately

were can i view these

[South Texas Storms]

yeah an opal type track could happen. i know its still a long ways out, but im thinking this will be more of a mexico/texas/louisiana threat. the west gom has been where most of the action has been so far this season and i look for that to continue with this one.

[South Texas Storms]

what models are you guys tracking these landfalls on

weve been looking closesly at the gfs lately

were can i view these

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
click on the gfs

[blp]

One thing is clear on the recent runs is that once it gets into the GOM it meanders for days over boiling water which would be nightmare with whomever has to deal with it.

[Ivanhater]

yeah an opal type track could happen. i know its still a long ways out, but im thinking this will be more of a mexico/texas/louisiana threat. the west gom has been where most of the action has been so far this season and i look for that to continue with this one.

Well we are talking the beginning of October with this time frame so the pattern will be more progressive and away from the early season pattern of Mexico and Deep south Texas. Not to say it won't happen, but the ridge over the Gulf will start to take some beatings from the more progressive troughs. We are starting to over analyze at this point though The consistency in the GFS is amazing, even if it's wrong.

[Vortex]

00z nogaps very similar to 00z gfs end of run wlatitude.....plenty of octane...notice trough digging over mid-west...





https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[psyclone]

ummm... we need to erase that Tampa hit. remember, we don't do hurricanes around here, just tropical storms. i trust someone will "fix the glitch".