West-Central Caribbean Tropical Cyclone (Is Invest 99L)

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion of Caribbean for next week by the San Juan NWS.

BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AND ACCOMPANYING DEEP LAYERED TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST
CROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS TO THEN INDUCE A DEEP MOIST SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE LATTER PART
OF NEXT WEEK. STILL SOME WAYS OUT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
SEE HOW THIS UNFOLDS. REGARDLESS...THE TENDENCY OF ALL MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST A MUCH WETTER AND POSSIBLY VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DURING THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
IN SOME AREAS MAY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. STAY TUNED.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Is invest 99L. Go to active storms/invests forum to continue the discussions about this area.

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