2015 indicators: Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Ntxw]

I think it's just best to see how ENSO plays out.

But then again... ENSO was neutral-warm these past 2 years and conditions were still hostile.

We were El Nino last year. And 2013 was cool neutral.

El-Nino from September. Everything before that was just for show because the atmosphere and the Nino regions were not all on the same page.

2013 had plenty of Nino talk as well.

While it is true "officially" it began in September, it had already been growing since late Spring. There is no magical line for ENSO, just because we crossed or didn't cross it doesn't mean it did or didn't exist. Screaming shear last year that you associate with El Nino in the Atlantic was already setting up shop in June when it roared from the gulf, to the Caribbean and MDR well in advance. It wasn't just slightly above shear, it was near record pace especially in June. You don't have to have all factors, just some is enough. It takes very good conditions to create a storm and near perfect conditions for big ones, it's not as easy as we make it to be.

[LarryWx]

^Ntxw,
Good post. Sometimes a predominant -SOI will precede the +0.5+ Niño 3.4 readings. I have noticed a good correlation between SOI and MDR tropical activity. With a -SOI, the atmosphere tends to behave "Ninolike". Also, I have noticed a pretty good correlation of El Niño and dryness/SAL in the MDR in addition to shear.

[Hurricaneman]

Also look at that blob in the Gulf, the shear is currently high but lets hope nothing like that is in the Gulf come June or even May with this years water temps and any possible drop in shear

[ninel conde]

JB always finds a way to hype the deadest of seasons. He mentions audrey 1957 and helene 1958 in tweets about el nino seasons today.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yeah its pretty bad when one has to go back 58 years to point out one particular storm to try and make a case. But just like winning the lottery, guess theres always that slightest one in a million+ chance, but wouldn't bet anything on it to happen.

[Kingarabian]

While it is true "officially" it began in September, it had already been growing since late Spring. There is no magical line for ENSO, just because we crossed or didn't cross it doesn't mean it did or didn't exist. Screaming shear last year that you associate with El Nino in the Atlantic was already setting up shop in June when it roared from the gulf, to the Caribbean and MDR well in advance. It wasn't just slightly above shear, it was near record pace especially in June. You don't have to have all factors, just some is enough. It takes very good conditions to create a storm and near perfect conditions for big ones, it's not as easy as we make it to be.

I agree with this 100%. I'm pretty sure those warm waters in the EPAc had something to do with all that screaming shear.

But even when it officially began, it was weak at best. A lot of users on here point that weak El Nino's typically don't affect the Atlantic hurricane season much.

[Yellow Evan]

While it is true "officially" it began in September, it had already been growing since late Spring. There is no magical line for ENSO, just because we crossed or didn't cross it doesn't mean it did or didn't exist. Screaming shear last year that you associate with El Nino in the Atlantic was already setting up shop in June when it roared from the gulf, to the Caribbean and MDR well in advance. It wasn't just slightly above shear, it was near record pace especially in June. You don't have to have all factors, just some is enough. It takes very good conditions to create a storm and near perfect conditions for big ones, it's not as easy as we make it to be.

I agree with this 100%. I'm pretty sure those warm waters in the EPAc had something to do with all that screaming shear.

But even when it officially began, it was weak at best. A lot of users on here point that weak El Nino's typically don't affect the Atlantic hurricane season much.

It's Modokis (which tend to be weak El Ninos since in weak events, WWB's don't always make it past 140W) that don't affect the ATL as much since it focuses the shear over the EPAC instead.

[Ntxw]

It's Modokis (which tend to be weak El Ninos since in weak events, WWB's don't always make it past 140W) that don't affect the ATL as much since it focuses the shear over the EPAC instead.

Yeah and last last year (not unlike 2009) had very warm 1+2 regions which focused a lot of convection in the gulf of Tehuantepec which I'm sure is not what you're looking for in a weaker modoki like 2004 where little convection occurred there. So while the global patterns were not of a stronger nino, locally the conditions were more akin to a moderate or greater event in terms of producing shear across the MDR.

[Kingarabian]

It's Modokis (which tend to be weak El Ninos since in weak events, WWB's don't always make it past 140W) that don't affect the ATL as much since it focuses the shear over the EPAC instead.

Yeah and last last year (not unlike 2009) had very warm 1+2 regions which focused a lot of convection in the gulf of Tehuantepec which I'm sure is not what you're looking for in a weaker modoki like 2004 where little convection occurred there. So while the global patterns were not of a stronger nino, locally the conditions were more akin to a moderate or greater event in terms of producing shear across the MDR.

You guys make good points and I now believe it's important to not solely look at Nino 3.4 values when judging Nino impacts. But conditions in the Atlantic seem to be poor even without El-Nino. Waves seem to suffer as soon as they leave Africa.

[Yellow Evan]

It's Modokis (which tend to be weak El Ninos since in weak events, WWB's don't always make it past 140W) that don't affect the ATL as much since it focuses the shear over the EPAC instead.

Yeah and last last year (not unlike 2009) had very warm 1+2 regions which focused a lot of convection in the gulf of Tehuantepec which I'm sure is not what you're looking for in a weaker modoki like 2004 where little convection occurred there. So while the global patterns were not of a stronger nino, locally the conditions were more akin to a moderate or greater event in terms of producing shear across the MDR.

You guys make good points and I now believe it's important to not solely look at Nino 3.4 values when judging Nino impacts. But conditions in the Atlantic seem to be poor even without El-Nino. Waves seem to suffer as soon as they leave Africa.

And looking at the SSTA graphs, it looks beyond terrible this year and trended even worse. It wouldn't surprise me if not a single storm in 2015 in the AHS developed from a tropical wave.

[Andrew92]

Yeah and last last year (not unlike 2009) had very warm 1+2 regions which focused a lot of convection in the gulf of Tehuantepec which I'm sure is not what you're looking for in a weaker modoki like 2004 where little convection occurred there. So while the global patterns were not of a stronger nino, locally the conditions were more akin to a moderate or greater event in terms of producing shear across the MDR.

You guys make good points and I now believe it's important to not solely look at Nino 3.4 values when judging Nino impacts. But conditions in the Atlantic seem to be poor even without El-Nino. Waves seem to suffer as soon as they leave Africa.

And looking at the SSTA graphs, it looks beyond terrible this year and trended even worse. It wouldn't surprise me if not a single storm in 2015 in the AHS developed from a tropical wave.

I think it would be fair to compare the graphs for this year to where we stood in 1997. Even that year saw Erika become a hurricane from a tropical wave. It didn't become a major hurricane until it approached the Tropic of Cancer or so, but if even the year with the strongest El Nino in recent memory still produced one storm like this from an MDR disturbance, I have to think there is at least a chance there is one this year, even if it's weak.

Then again, the SST's in the MDR is a bit cooler than average....right now. But will it continue?

-Andrew92

[Yellow Evan]

I think it would be fair to compare the graphs for this year to where we stood in 1997. Even that year saw Erika become a hurricane from a tropical wave. It didn't become a major hurricane until it approached the Tropic of Cancer or so, but if even the year with the strongest El Nino in recent memory still produced one storm like this from an MDR disturbance, I have to think there is at least a chance there is one this year, even if it's weak.

Then again, the SST's in the MDR is a bit cooler than average....right now. But will it continue?

-Andrew92

I'd think so too, but I'm not ruling out the possibility.

[gatorcane]

SSTs across the Gulf and Western Atlantic continue to warm and are running above normal to much above normal...

There have been no cold fronts penetrating these areas for nearly a month now. Across Florida the rainy season seems to have kicked off over a month ahead of schedule.

[crownweather]

Yep, I noticed that the rainy season may have gotten going across Florida. A couple of charts from south Florida comparing both the starting dates to the rainy season (close analogy to 1957). Also, this month has had the warmest overall low temperatures in Miami since 1969.





I'm definitely thinking that we're going to really have to watch for both early season development and something strengthening significantly as it comes ashore this year. I can feel it in me bones.

SSTs across the Gulf and Western Atlantic continue to warm and are running above normal to much above normal...

There have been no cold fronts penetrating these areas for nearly a month now. Across Florida the rainy season seems to have kicked off over a month ahead of schedule.

[Hurricaneman]

The fact that theres a mid level trough from a MCC 150 mile south of New Orleans could mean something if a similar setup happens later in the year which due to El Nino means its very possible

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[cycloneye]

Outlook by ECMWF at the April update for ASO with bigtime high pressures in most of Atlantic while the EPAC is with lower pressures.

[Kingarabian]

Outlook by ECMWF at the April update for ASO with bigtime high pressures in most of Atlantic while the EPAC is with lower pressures.

Crazy.

How does the ECMWF calculate pressure though? Like what does it factor in to predict highs like that.

[Yellow Evan]

Outlook by ECMWF at the April update for ASO with bigtime high pressures in most of Atlantic while the EPAC is with lower pressures.

Crazy.

How does the ECMWF calculate pressure though? Like what does it factor in to predict highs like that.

ENSO, PDO, AMO probs.

[xcool22]

how good is ECMWF seasonal forecast ?

[Yellow Evan]

how good is ECMWF seasonal forecast ?

It's generally warm biased, but in the ATL, it's been dead on.