Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[toad strangler]

Still moving near due N @264 ready to be whisked away to the NE and the open Atlantic

[toad strangler]

Wrapping up tight @288 and bye bye to the NE

Good night!

[USTropics]

One other variable I've noticed with the GFS run are two separate vorticities emerging off the coast of Africa in the next 24-48 hours. The one that develops is actually further north near 15N. You can see this clearly at 60 hours on the GFS run:



This was alluded to in last night's synopsis of P39L:

GFS: Weaker than ECMWF. No pouch position with a CL-trough intersection until 24 hours, then tracked with reasonable certainty through 60 hours. OW peaks at a modest 3.8x10-9 s-2 at 60 hours. P39L then becomes stretches SW-NE, with multiple centers. I track to 84 hours, attempting to track the middle of this stretched feature. Warning: While there is no position indicated after 84 hours, the fields depict a circulation at the NE end and another at the SW end of this feature. Both are weak.

You can still see the the second vorticity trailing even in the 168 hour image. The 00z CMC run from last night developed the trailing vorticity.

[USTropics]

Just for records sake, the CMC is developing any vorticity that hits the water in the 00z run (in the EATL that would be both vorticities associated with P39L and P40L):

[USTropics]

GFS ensembles at 264 hours shows a wide spread of possibilities:

[weathaguyry]

Uhhhh...

[gatorcane]

Well the long-range GFS is showing some pretty wild swings. What is more certain is that it looks like we may see an area of low pressure or possibly a cyclone approaching the southern Lesser Antilles a week from now. The GFS is already backing off on the giant Central Atlantic low that would recurve the cyclone in the Eastern Caribbean. By the way here is the 00z UKMET:

[jlauderdal]

Well the long-range GFS is showing some pretty wild swings. What is more certain is that it looks like we may see an area of low pressure or possibly a cyclone approaching the southern Lesser Antilles a week from now. The GFS is already backing off on the giant Central Atlantic low that would recurve the cyclone in the Eastern Caribbean. By the way here is the 00z UKMET:

plenty of model support to get it to at least 60W

[cajungal]

GFS went from getting in the Gulf to a huge swing of threatening South Florida but then out to sea. Guess we won't have a better idea until something even develops.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... TD/TS Landfall at PR...

06 GFS... Major in Central/NW Bahamas...Closest approach to SFL...

[Hurricaneman]

But it seems more of the ensembles are switching back to a path south of Hispaniola so its not a done deal for a recurve, the Euro has this heading for Honduras so like said I wouldn't bet on a recurve or a hit in Central America as we probably won't know until next week where this will go

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Emmett_Brown]

I agree, there are wild swings in the upper air pattern bering pictured over North America on both the Euro and GFS on the last few runs, which is understandable at this time range. We won't have a better idea until we inside about 180 hours or so.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro... Pouch 39L moving W in extreme S Caribbean... Takes a ride over land across S America...

[blp]

Looking at 00z last night, the major difference starts at 144hrs on both the Euro and GFS. The GFS keeps a large low pressure in the Atlantic that extends much further south eroding any type of mid latitude ridge but the Euro has the low much further north and develops a mid latitude ridge that drives the system west. Before 144hr they are similar. So I would only trust the models out to 144hrs for now.

00z GFS



00z Euro

[Emmett_Brown]

Having lived recently in Wisconsin, I followed the global models closely for winter storm action. It is very common for the global models to be very different from each other beyond 120 hours, especially as seasons transition.

[SouthFLTropics]

Subtle differences in the 12z GFS from the 06z at 102 hours have me thinking that it is going to go OTS after going through the islands this time.

[gatorcane]

Given what the 12Z GFS is showing, I think NHC should start mentioning this wave in their next outlook. The model starts development now within 5 days.

[CourierPR]

Subtle differences in the 12z GFS from the 06z at 102 hours have me thinking that it is going to go OTS after going through the islands this time.

In his video on weatherbell.com, Joe Bastardi uses his model which has the system going into The Bahamas and riding up the east coast.

[Florida1118]

Subtle differences in the 12z GFS from the 06z at 102 hours have me thinking that it is going to go OTS after going through the islands this time.

I think it's a bit more than subtle. GFS has this as an organized TC at 120 hours on 12z, compared to 162 at 6z. Pushes it forward quite a bit, and before the lesser Antilles now.

[cajungal]

Boy this thread went dead fast now that the models are no longer showing it getting in the Gulf.