Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[Tireman4]

Need a few more days but just by going climo here we all expect high pressure to dominate the GOM in JUNE! Just sayin..

Oh my gracious. Look who woke up.

[ROCK]

Yeah I took some time off..didn't kick the bucket yet! )

[Stormcenter]

Well that's what I would think too but then we had the pretty strong cold front sweep through just a few weeks ago so it makes you wonder
whether this new trough may be just strong enough pull this northward. Just saying.

Need a few more days but just by going climo here we all expect high pressure to dominate the GOM in JUNE! Just sayin..

[ROCK]

Well that's what I would think too but then we had the pretty strong cold front sweep through just a few weeks ago so it makes you wonder
whether this new trough may be just strong enough pull this northward. Just saying.

Need a few more days but just by going climo here we all expect high pressure to dominate the GOM in JUNE! Just sayin..

I hear you but I think into Northern MX is the most viable solution attm. Occams Razor...and that the Euro has been sniffing this track for a few runs now.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/875447038980136960

[Hammy]

how strong is euro parallel

00z Euro Parallel lowest was 1001mb. I posted its run details in the previous page.

12z Euro Parallel comes out in around 6 hours.

Is there any public access for Euro Parallel?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is where the fun begins! Definitely an uptick in strength on the 12z ECMWF and a jog further north. The ridge looks solid, at least from my perspective, but there's definitely been quite a few troughs passing through the GOMEX lately.

[Portastorm]

Yeah I took some time off..didn't kick the bucket yet! )

Look who the tropics dragged in?!

[Kingarabian]

how strong is euro parallel

00z Euro Parallel lowest was 1001mb. I posted its run details in the previous page.

12z Euro Parallel comes out in around 6 hours.

Is there any public access for Euro Parallel?

I'm not sure because the Euro Parallel is HRES so it's private only. Maybe they'll release low resolution soon, but it's supposed to take over the current Euro in July, regardless.

[tarheelprogrammer]

There seems to be a low level circulation trying to form northeast of Nicaragua. It is starting to fire off some storms on top.

Here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS and Parallel GFS are both west of their 12z tracks through 96 hours.

[sphelps8681]

Are the new models just now coming out?

[bubba hotep]

LoL... The GFS Para... At least it shifted west, just a bit to go before lining up with the Euro.

[Hammy]

I'm personally sticking with the GFS solution of no development--there's quite a bit of shear to the north, and the Euro has had a bad habit in the past of vastly underestimating the shear north of about 20N.

[wxman57]

Looks like the 18Z GFS gave up on the Florida hit. It shifted west with a weaker system heading for northern Mexico, though it has it very weak by then. I still like the Euro best. Was in touch with AFMET today. He is able to view the private military model that did very well with Hermine & Matthew last year. It's in line with the Euro. I think there's about an 80-90% chance we will have TS Bret by Monday PM, Tuesday AM at the latest and Monday AM at the earliest.

[tropicwatch]

There seems to be a low level circulation trying to form northeast of Nicaragua. It is starting to fire off some storms on top.

Here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

I have been looking at that too and mentioned it a little while ago.

[sphelps8681]

Looks like the 18Z GFS gave up on the Florida hit. It shifted west with a weaker system heading for northern Mexico, though it has it very weak by then. I still like the Euro best. Was in touch with AFMET today. He is able to view the private military model that did very well with Hermine & Matthew last year. It's in line with the Euro. I think there's about an 80-90% chance we will have TS Bret by Monday PM, Tuesday AM at the latest and Monday AM at the earliest.

Does it look like the upper Texas coast will get a lot of rain from this?

[Portastorm]

Looks like the 18Z GFS gave up on the Florida hit. It shifted west with a weaker system heading for northern Mexico, though it has it very weak by then. I still like the Euro best. Was in touch with AFMET today. He is able to view the private military model that did very well with Hermine & Matthew last year. It's in line with the Euro. I think there's about an 80-90% chance we will have TS Bret by Monday PM, Tuesday AM at the latest and Monday AM at the earliest.

I miss Air Force Met. Good guy and great contributor here. Hope he's well.

I've learned over the years to hitch my tropical wagon to the bike-riding tropical weather guru in SE Texas. If he and Euro say WGOM ... that's where I'll lay my chips down. Besides we could use the rain here in SC Texas.

[psyclone]

even if the western solution verifies (looks most likely at this point) a boatload of moisture is going to shear off to the north so things are certain to remain wet for Floridians regardless. In many cases the most impressive feature of the early season systems is the insane PWAT levels that accompany them and this looks to be no exception.

[northjaxpro]

even if the western solution verifies (looks most likely at this point) a boatload of moisture is going to shear off to the north so things are certain to remain wet for Floridians regardless. In many cases the most impressive feature of the early season systems is the insane PWAT levels that accompany them and this looks to be no exception.

Yes indeed psyclone you are not kidding here. . The moisture pump is on full blast. I have measured over 10.5 inches here at the home station just the past 8 days! Plenty more of this will get pulled all along the Gulf Coast region going into next week with this developing system.