2019 EPAC season

[Ntxw]

I have never seen the East Pacific so quiet this early in the season. Of course a late start does not predict how active or inactive it will be. I wonder why it has been quiet so far.

The far eastern Pacific (near Mexico) usually carry the bulk of early and late season activity. Conditions there and SSTa profiles have not been favorable. Likely west-basin heavy season, but those long tracking system to the west don't kick up usually until July.

[cycloneye]

GFS has a longtracker on the first days of July and that is nice timing if it happens Ntxw.

[cycloneye]

Yikes! From a longtracker to nothing for GFS from 12z to 18z.

[Kingarabian]

Yikes! From a longtracker to nothing for GFS from 12z to 18z.

It's in the long range so I'm expecting models to be on and off. At this point we just need to take it one step at a time. If 93E develops and becomes a decent storm, it'll give us clues on what to expect from future systems.

[Ptarmigan]

I have never seen the East Pacific so quiet this early in the season. Of course a late start does not predict how active or inactive it will be. I wonder why it has been quiet so far.

The far eastern Pacific (near Mexico) usually carry the bulk of early and late season activity. Conditions there and SSTa profiles have not been favorable. Likely west-basin heavy season, but those long tracking system to the west don't kick up usually until July.

Makes sense. The El Nino is been largely weak.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS and UKMET hinting at couple of systems after 93E.

Based on this hovmoller from Dr. Ventrice, the Euro shows -VP200 anomalies presiding over the EPAC through the first week of July, which would mean atmospheric conditions for TC development will remain generally favorable.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1143198889874472962

[Shell Mound]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Jun 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with the broad area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico
has become more concentrated this evening. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
for the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during this time while the system moves west-northwestward
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1143476461808050176

[cycloneye]

12z Euro comming alive.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro comming alive.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/KdjnRQX.gif[url]

Just as the 12Z GFS and UKMET go back to sleep.

[Yellow Evan]

Models are really erratic but given the more favorable background state incoming and given that they were erratic with 1E as well, I have some confidence in an uptick in activity next week. How much is still an unknown question but remember how the basin last year turned on suddenly in early August with only hints of an uptick indicated in models.

[Kingarabian]

Models are really erratic but given the more favorable background state incoming and given that they were erratic with 1E as well, I have some confidence in an uptick in activity next week. How much is still an unknown question but remember how the basin last year turned on suddenly in early August with only hints of an uptick indicated in models.

Completely agree here. Models have been pretty erratic so far.
18z GFS now briefly develops that system the Euro spun up in its 12z run. So I think we should see a yellow circle soon because some sort of development happens in the next 72-120 hours.

[cycloneye]

Behind that one,GFS develops another one and is stronger.

[Kingarabian]

EPS has about 40-50% odds of something forming by Saturday.

[Nancy Smar]

GENESIS008, EP, E, , , , , 77, 2019, DB, O, 2019062612, 9999999999, , 008, , , , GENESIS, , EP772019

[cycloneye]

Here we go with another one.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop in a few days
several hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico.
Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend
and into early next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

NHC will have to add another yellow one on Friday.

[Kingarabian]

NHC will have to add another yellow one on Friday.

Maybe in the CPHC as well. Euro keeps trying to form something there lol. It's desperate.

[Kingarabian]

NHC will have to add another yellow one on Friday.

Maybe in the CPAC as well. Euro keeps trying to form something there lol. It's desperate.

[Chris90]

NHC will have to add another yellow one on Friday.

Maybe in the CPAC as well. Euro keeps trying to form something there lol. It's desperate.

Usually I'd be a little more skeptical since we're still in June, but I'm starting to think there's a decent chance something does pop up, just because of how favorable that basin is looking this year.