Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands: (Is Invest 96L)

[Frank2]

I would discard the Legacy model at this point as an outlier, since all other models show the future system recurving east of the Bahamas, the subtropical high being further east by the middle of next week than the past few weeks.

[ConvergenceZone]

I would discard the Legacy model at this point as an outlier, since all other models show the future system recurving east of the Bahamas, the subtropical high being further east than the past few weeks.

And of course we can always see the models trend west, as we've seen MANY MANY other storms do in the past.. Regardless, I have a feeling it's going to be super busy August as far as the tropics are concerned......

[TheStormExpert]

Should be 96L anytime now.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1156350450796572679

[NotSparta]

Based on the wording, I think the NHC believes that the chances of genesis are higher than 40%, but left it there since there's the 5 day limit

[TheStormExpert]

The global models I’ve looked at don’t develop this until it just about reached the NE Caribbean, so the NHC maybe thinks that the models are underplaying things.

[floridasun78]

i know early in game but big models showing soon to 96l moving out to sea as get north of Haiti as hurr look like want build weakness east of us coast line

[cycloneye]

Great thread from Ventrice.See his tweets about the prospects for wave.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1156363373963022337

[jlauderdal]

I would discard the Legacy model at this point as an outlier, since all other models show the future system recurving east of the Bahamas, the subtropical high being further east by the middle of next week than the past few weeks.

I was discarding the last few years when it wasn't legacy ...it really didnt have to many wins...it sure did pound south florida with a steady diet of majors over the years

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[jlauderdal]

Looks like a recurve on the 18Z GFS well east of the CONUS.

This time of the year I’m pretty sure storms rarely recurve ots. That’s more likely to happen in late September and into October.

Just the opposite, most do curve out to sea, fortunately

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[jlauderdal]

The global models I’ve looked at don’t develop this until it just about reached the NE Caribbean, so the NHC maybe thinks that the models are underplaying things.

Be on the lookout for systems that wait to develop past 60W, those are the ones that do most of the damage

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[Kazmit]

Based on the wording, I think the NHC believes that the chances of genesis are higher than 40%, but left it there since there's the 5 day limit

Yes- the chances that it develops at all are likely more than 40% but it's possible that this won't happen until beyond day 5.

[jlauderdal]

I wouldn’t believe any computer model right now for track or strength. It’s way too early in the game for any of that.

That's awfully pessimistic especially when you have the gfs new and king euro on the development train...warm water, ridging, modest shear, whats stopping it from becoming a named system?

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[jlauderdal]

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues
to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
No significant development of this system is expected for the next
few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter,
upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/lXuiXC8.png[url]

I was kinda shocked to see the jump to 40%.

the setup looks rather favorable in a few days for development, we can argue about track later...lets see if 57 likes the development idea

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[drezee]

Models are coming into agreement on the possibility. I basically ignore the surface maps after 5 days. The 500mb pattern looks right for development. Also, this wave will let us see what bias the season will have on the deep tropics. Normally, there is a model bias N or S depending on the year. South bia is great as landfalls turn into recurves...the opposite not so nice. So ignore the surface right now...the bottom line there is a possible TC trackin in or beneath Hebert's box...stay tuned

[floridasun78]

their guy i know he was USCG weatherman i see post about tropical systems he say that area could be affect what this 95l getting affect that dry air their alot dry air in Caribbean see and area round it that may get in way of maybe 95l as get close to leewards by weekend (( his name T. F. “STORM” WALSH III T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)))

[Cpv17]

I wouldn’t believe any computer model right now for track or strength. It’s way too early in the game for any of that.

That's awfully pessimistic especially when you have the gfs new and king euro on the development train...warm water, ridging, modest shear, whats stopping it from becoming a named system?

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It’s too early to know how strong this system will become. We’ll know a lot more by the weekend.

[LarryWx]

Looks like a recurve on the 18Z GFS well east of the CONUS.

This time of the year I’m pretty sure storms rarely recurve ots. That’s more likely to happen in late September and into October.

Just the opposite, most do curve out to sea, fortunately

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Indeed, at any time of year most systems with genesis east of 55W or so recurve. But in July and August, the % that do is smaller than that for Sep and way smaller than that for Oct. And if there are a good many of these in a season, the odds would favor at least one not recurving safely, especially in a non-Nino season.

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS drops development before the NE Caribbean islands.

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS drops development before the NE Caribbean islands.

More island disruption this run but goes nuts after it moves away from the greater Antilles

[GCANE]

CIMSS showing unsymmetrical 850mb and 700mb vorts.
But, very nicely defined and large 500mb vort.

There is a 200mb vort located at 18N 49W.
The wave will likely interact with the UL vort in the next 24 to 48 hrs.

Given the UL-Vort interaction and large 500mb vort, an extended due-west track is highly likely IMHO.