TheProfessor wrote:18z GEFS definitely had an uptick in stronger systems. Mostly aimed at Texas and Louisiana.
U have image ?
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stormlover2013
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
U have image ?
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gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
stormlover2013 wrote:TheProfessor wrote:18z GEFS definitely had an uptick in stronger systems. Mostly aimed at Texas and Louisiana.
U have image ?
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
Not a lot of convection but wave axis is around 50W chugging westnorthwest.
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gatorcane
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
No wonder the models don’t develop this wave in the Caribbean. That is some ripping shear! 
MDR closed for business at the moment:
MDR closed for business at the moment:
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
gatorcane wrote:No wonder the models don’t develop this wave in the Caribbean. That is some ripping shear!
MDR closed for business at the moment:
https://i.postimg.cc/HW9MyvGz/wg8shr.gif
Yeah it's been pretty hostile for a while now. And SAL is making a huge push south right now too. I'll start worrying when I see wxman giving it more attention. So far, he's been saying a potential rainmaker, which for South Texas wouldn't be a bad thing.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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floridasun78
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
tropical are close now may not close few weeks
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
TheProfessor wrote:18z GEFS definitely had an uptick in stronger systems. Mostly aimed at Texas and Louisiana.
If you think the 18Z GEFS uptick was impressive, check out the 0Z GEFS, which is loaded with TS+'s in the W GOM!
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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stormlover2013
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
LarryWx wrote:TheProfessor wrote:18z GEFS definitely had an uptick in stronger systems. Mostly aimed at Texas and Louisiana.
If you think the 18Z GEFS uptick was impressive, check out the 0Z GEFS, which is loaded with TS+'s in the W GOM!
Image ?
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TheProfessor
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
LarryWx wrote:TheProfessor wrote:18z GEFS definitely had an uptick in stronger systems. Mostly aimed at Texas and Louisiana.
If you think the 18Z GEFS uptick was impressive, check out the 0Z GEFS, which is loaded with TS+'s in the W GOM!
Yep, another decent uptick from the 18z GEFS.
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TheProfessor
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
stormlover2013 wrote:LarryWx wrote:TheProfessor wrote:18z GEFS definitely had an uptick in stronger systems. Mostly aimed at Texas and Louisiana.
If you think the 18Z GEFS uptick was impressive, check out the 0Z GEFS, which is loaded with TS+'s in the W GOM!
Image ?
It's not up on TT yet and the site I use is a paid one.
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TheProfessor
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
USTropics wrote:00z GFS ensembles, very strong signal:
https://i.ibb.co/T16GCK3/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh66-204.gif
The ensemble members seem to weaken the EPAC storm fairly quickly, which may be allowing a potential storm in the Gulf to flourish.
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USTropics
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
TheProfessor wrote:USTropics wrote:00z GFS ensembles, very strong signal:
https://i.ibb.co/T16GCK3/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh66-204.gif
The ensemble members seem to weaken the EPAC storm fairly quickly, which may be allowing a potential storm in the Gulf to flourish.
The operational was hinting at this as well, a quick spinup that gets further NW and weakens significantly. Also GEFS 500mb anomalies not displacing the subtropical high as far west (was displaced into the EGOM 5 runs ago):
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TheProfessor
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
USTropics wrote:TheProfessor wrote:USTropics wrote:00z GFS ensembles, very strong signal:
https://i.ibb.co/T16GCK3/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh66-204.gif
The ensemble members seem to weaken the EPAC storm fairly quickly, which may be allowing a potential storm in the Gulf to flourish.
The operational was hinting at this as well, a quick spinup that gets further NW and weakens significantly. Also GEFS 500mb anomalies not displacing the subtropical high as far west (was displaced into the EGOM 5 runs ago):
https://i.ibb.co/JKyY41F/gfs-ens-z500a-Norm-atl-fh168-trend-1.gif
Which could give a potential storm a lot more real estate to operate in that scenario.
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South Texas Storms
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
It's important to note that the GFS Ensembles have not been upgraded the to FV3 core yet.
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TheProfessor
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
South Texas Storms wrote:It's important to note that the GFS Ensembles have not been upgraded the to FV3 core yet.
Didn't realize that, probably why there's discrepancy right now and why the ensembles were quite different during Barry.
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USTropics
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
Increased southeasterly flow along the southwest periphery of the ridge will enhance convergence as well.
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stormlover2013
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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands
Convection has increased.
06z surface analysis has wave axis around 52W.
06z surface analysis has wave axis around 52W.
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