Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[bqknight]

...and right up the state. Now wouldn't that be fun.

[SFLcane]

[jfk08c]

They said I was dumb for stocking up on water during Dorian. "It's gonna turn", they said. Little did they know, I was playing the long game the whole time

[SFLcane]

Old GFS is much more like the euro weak and north of the islands.

[toad strangler]

That kind of track is tough to nail within 72 hours let alone 11 or 12 days lol

Take the track with a grain of salt. It could be into MX or Bermuda by 18z GFS tomorrow.

[sma10]

That kind of track is tough to nail within 72 hours let alone 11 or 12 days lol

Take the track with a grain of salt. It could be into MX or Bermuda by 18z GFS tomorrow.

Absolutely.

If the GFS had its way, south florida would be a wasteland by now

[Astromanía]

That kind of track is tough to nail within 72 hours let alone 11 or 12 days lol

Take the track with a grain of salt. It could be into MX or Bermuda by 18z GFS tomorrow.

No thanks

[SouthFLTropics]

That kind of track is tough to nail within 72 hours let alone 11 or 12 days lol

Take the track with a grain of salt. It could be into MX or Bermuda by 18z GFS tomorrow.

Absolutely.

If the GFS had its way, south florida would be a wasteland by now

If you haven't already noticed...South Florida IS a wasteland!!!

[LarryWx]

I finally saw the 12Z UKMET. It is much weaker than the last few runs but related to that it is quite a bit further SW (Leewards at day 7). Although it is weaker and it is a left biased model, this trend is definitely not what we should want to see if we don't want the Caribbean and CONUS to be threatened.

Larry did this include the uk ensembles as well as the operational?

Sorry, I just saw this from you. No, it is just the operational. I haven't seen UK ensembles.

[USTropics]

How the WPAC systems Lingling and Faxai are absorbed into the higher latitudes could play a crucial role in the eventual track of this AEW. Here is an analysis of the 2 systems 72 hours ago, and their eventual track towards an approaching trough:


Fast forward to current analysis, and we'll see the remnants of Lingling being absorbed and Faxai heading north into the weakness:


The 12z GFS has both systems being absorbed in 48 hours:


Now watch a full animation and you can see how this evolution has implications downstream on the eventual track of this AEW. Keep in mind this is a long range forecast, and just one possible solution. Trough position/tilt/strength could erode or amplify the high pressure area over the Eastern US, it could even create a blocking pattern:

[Bigwhitey]

Chances of a 258 hour model verifying

[toad strangler]

Chances of a 258 hour model verifying

Yeah everyone knows that and has been said already.

At this stage it’s all about signals. Track and intensity are fools gold this far out. The signals are strong though and the Euro is close to hopping on board.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
expected to move quickly westward during the next several days.
Some slow development is possible late this week and over the
weekend when the system is several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[RL3AO]

How the WPAC systems Lingling and Faxai are absorbed into the higher latitudes could play a crucial role in the eventual track of this AEW. Here is an analysis of the 2 systems 72 hours ago, and their eventual track towards an approaching trough:

Nothing says fall like a nice typhoon enhanced Rossby Wave train.

[jlauderdal]

Gfs has a sense of humor




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Gfs loves south florida, new or legacy doesnt matter

[gatorcane]

18Z GEFS showing two camps in the long-range. One group heads south through the islands and eventually Bahamas and South Florida. The other go north and recurve sooner north of islands. Looks like a very complex steering pattern ahead with recurving typhoons. Expect wild swings in models to continue...

[cycloneye]

ASCAT captures a weak turning.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1171220041725071360

[gatorcane]

There is your classic “thumb ridge” as shown by 18Z GFS day 10 which drives the hurricane into South Florida. Luckily this is a day 10 forecast which is likely not to verify exactly as shown:

[ronjon]

How the WPAC systems Lingling and Faxai are absorbed into the higher latitudes could play a crucial role in the eventual track of this AEW. Here is an analysis of the 2 systems 72 hours ago, and their eventual track towards an approaching trough:

Nothing says fall like a nice typhoon enhanced Rossby Wave train.

Complicated teleconnections you say? Models to say the least are highly uncertain. Sometimes I think all models should never go past 7 days.

[LarryWx]

I'm very concerned about a storm going into the Gulf. IF the next storm tracks through the western Caribbean and Gulf, it would be going through water that hasn't been tapped in quite awhile, Also, there also have been no sig cold fronts to cool the waters and it has been much warmer than normal in the SE US. Thus the SSTs are boiling...I mean nearly 1 C warmer than they were just before Michael came through in some areas! Most of the open Gulf and W Caribbean is ~86-87 range with some open areas even close to 88! Just before Michael, Gulf SSTs were at or near record warmth for early Oct. due to a record hot Sept/early Oct, but even that was more like 84-6. Also to compare, the warmest open ocean SSTs in Dorian's path were near 86-7 (Bahamas). That's quite concerning, especially if it is not crawling slowly enough to lead to weakening due to its own wake.

Unless that wave now north of the Greater Antilles were to develop much and cool the Gulf some, the Gulf will likely still be about this hot if the far E Atlantic entity were to track this way as I don't see any sig cold fronts during the next 14+ days with well above normal temps continuing.

Related to this:
https://www.nola.com/news/environment/a ... 22441.html