WeatherBoy2000 wrote:tolakram wrote:How about Sahara dust? Any indicators we can look at to predict how good or bad dust outbreaks will be? From the looks of it we will need MDR activity to reach a hyperactive season, which means dust is going to be a factor. I'm not claiming to know anything here, just asking.
There was a twitter thread by I think Eric Webb that talked about how a warmer Canary current region typically lends itself towards a more moist deep tropics with less dry air/SAL issues. How warm that region is by the summer might give us a clue on how much dry air will be issue.
The Canary Current has an effect yes. Last year it was very warm/above avg which proved beneficial in enhancing vertical instability in the MDR, especially in the face of El Nino. Would definitely explain the abundance of MDR activity last year; was actually more active than 2020 in that regard which was mainly bolstered by the insane amount of late-season WATL activity.
