Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[wzrgirl1]

138hrs out and synoptics don't look too different between Euro and GFS ranging from a negative-tilt trof over east CONUS, Surface High over TN, and a surface low around 40N 40W.
355K PV looks good for development.
Biggest difference I see between the two models is that Euro moves this faster west that GFS.
GFS creates a strong front to the north of this at that time which allows the system to pull sharply north while Euro does not create the front.

Run-to-run GFS has that front digging in.

When and where does it show it pulling the system north?

[boca]

138hrs out and synoptics don't look too different between Euro and GFS ranging from a negative-tilt trof over east CONUS, Surface High over TN, and a surface low around 40N 40W.
355K PV looks good for development.
Biggest difference I see between the two models is that Euro moves this faster west that GFS.
GFS creates a strong front to the north of this at that time which allows the system to pull sharply north while Euro does not create the front.

Run-to-run GFS has that front digging in.

When and where does it show it pulling the system north?

South of Puerto Rico moving north according to the GFS.

[gatorcane]

The modeling makes a lot of sense as the Bermuda High has been weak to non-existent for at least the last month. In 2005, the Bermuda High was much stronger allowing Wilma to track west across the Caribbean and recurve over South Florida even though it was a similar time in late October.

That said we could get quite a large and powerful hurricane in the Caribbean with warmer than normal SSTs and excellent upper-level conditions.

[LarryWx]

Ensembles and climo/history suggest that E NC has as almost as much of a chance at getting hit directly by this as S or C FL, including a scenario where both get hit. I’m not saying either is favored to get hit though. Right now neither is at high risk but a nontrivial risk is there.

[GCANE]

138hrs out and synoptics don't look too different between Euro and GFS ranging from a negative-tilt trof over east CONUS, Surface High over TN, and a surface low around 40N 40W.
355K PV looks good for development.
Biggest difference I see between the two models is that Euro moves this faster west that GFS.
GFS creates a strong front to the north of this at that time which allows the system to pull sharply north while Euro does not create the front.

Run-to-run GFS has that front digging in.

When and where does it show it pulling the system north?

06Z Fri 10/24
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_28.png

[boca]

If this storm gets west of Puerto Rico longitude I will be surprised because of the nonexistent Bermuda high

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1979166755902607456

[Spacecoast]

The newer version of DeepMind.

https://i.ibb.co/x8J2RHwn/genc-2025-10-16-18-Z-312-28-686-261-154-10-876-293-223-SST-Anomaly-Surface-tracks-lows.png

Actually, GDM-FNV3 is the newest ensemble version, (still described as experimental). GENC is the 2024 version previously labeled as 'GenCast'

[InfernoFlameCat]

I wonder if its going to be a late october monster. I haven’t looked at the models at all tho. But it is weird how we keep having these backloaded seasons

[Spacecoast]

06z GDM-FNV3 ensembles:


up to 39 members out of 50 (78%)....

[cycloneye]

Slowly organizing.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1979197163432272077

[psyclone]

Up and out has been the recurrent theme this season. tough to bet against persistence, especially with the system looking like it may form a bit sooner.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The GFS is still holding strong to Ecar development, not implausible given that the wave seems to pretty healthy already. The past few gfs runs have been very reminiscent of Omar 2008.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFS looks to shut down the upcoming Holiday lights in PR with a Major splitting the island.

[Kazmit]

Although a Florida hit is starting to look less likely, that doesn’t mean the US is out of the woods. Let’s not forget about Puerto Rico- the GFS is persistent on a major hurricane passing near or over the island.

[Cachondo23]

12z GFS looks to shut down the upcoming Holiday lights in PR with a Major splitting the island.

Yes indeed, 949mb over the island on late Oct! Obs. this will continue to change but trend is there…

[LarryWx]

Although a Florida hit is starting to look less likely, that doesn’t mean the US is out of the woods. Let’s not forget about Puerto Rico- the GFS is persistent on a major hurricane passing near or over the island.

Yep, I’m sure Luis and others are starting to get a little concerned. Hopefully they’ll be spared something bad!

[LarryWx]

Although a Florida hit is starting to look less likely, that doesn’t mean the US is out of the woods. Let’s not forget about Puerto Rico- the GFS is persistent on a major hurricane passing near or over the island.

Everyone hold their horses. In a big change from prior runs, the 12Z CMC hits Nicaragua on 10/24-5 with a strong TS!

[cycloneye]

You bet I am very concerned if what GFS turns into reallity because it would be even worse that Maria if it moves slow like the model has. But I take some comfort that there is no real consensus among them even among the ensembles GEFS, EPS and AI Deep Mind.