Atlantic Waves,Discussions and sat pics

#181 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 5:38 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

I like this big image that updates every 15 minutes that you can animate and that is why I post it at every page for all to see what is going on outside Africa and inside that continent.

OURAGAN · #182 Postby **OURAGAN** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 5:54 am

yes Cycloneye, It's why I posted This link to you and on this message board yesterday, this picture is better than the picture of LSU.

#183 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 6:35 am

25/0530 UTC 14.0N 28.3W TOO WEAK 92 -- Atlantic Ocean

Interesting that SSD dvorak issued something for 92L.An anticipation of a invest up later today?

#184 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 6:51 am

E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 20N WITH A 1014 MB
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N...MOVING W 10-15 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN
45/60 NM OF LINE 15N29W-12N32W.

8:05 AM Discussion:

Anonymous · #185 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:45 am

cycloneye wrote:25/0530 UTC 14.0N 28.3W TOO WEAK 92 -- Atlantic Ocean

Interesting that SSD dvorak issued something for 92L.An anticipation of a invest up later today?

I was wondering the same thing about that

#186 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 8:04 am

We need flesh for the bones of 92L

Hyperstorm · #187 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 8:28 am

Things are interesting in the Atlantic.

The low pressure system that had dissipated yesterday near 50W has moved WNW in the form of a swirl and is now near 17N 52W. Convection has refired along it, as I expected, but UL winds are less than ideal for development. I expect convection to increase further, but no development is likely until it moves to the Western Caribbean where it MIGHT find slightly more favorable conditions. That being said, it is pointing directly at Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and will bring heavy rains starting on Wednesday.

The wave in the Eastern Atlantic has had a problem developing a low pressure system near 14N 30W because the weak convection it generates is quite intermittent. Also, the system is quite broad and it is still associated with the ITCZ. These factors have caused it to be slow to develop and in fact, the system has weakened since yesterday. Still, there is potential for development, but once it heads past the *magical* point of 40W and develops organized intense convection. Until I see that, I won't look for development, regardless of a circulation or not.

In West Africa a fairly impressive tropical wave is moving offshore as I type. This one, just as the previous one, doesn't have to contend with dry air, but it is coming at a fairly high latitude 15-16N, which would support only slow development, if any.

The one I'm more concerned about for possible development is the one still in West Africa near 10N 3W. This one has a good-sized low pressure system and it is in a low latitude. Convection has been rather persistent over the continent, which is common of the monster waves that eventually develop. I'll be watching this one for sure.

#188 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 8:40 am

Hyperstorm wrote:Things are interesting in the Atlantic.

The low pressure system that had dissipated yesterday near 50W has moved WNW in the form of a swirl and is now near 17N 52W. Convection has refired along it, as I expected, but UL winds are less than ideal for development. I expect convection to increase further, but no development is likely until it moves to the Western Caribbean where it MIGHT find slightly more favorable conditions. That being said, it is pointing directly at Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and will bring heavy rains starting on Wednesday.

The wave in the Eastern Atlantic has had a problem developing a low pressure system near 14N 30W because the weak convection it generates is quite intermittent. Also, the system is quite broad and it is still associated with the ITCZ. These factors have caused it to be slow to develop and in fact, the system has weakened since yesterday. Still, there is potential for development, but once it heads past the *magical* point of 40W and develops organized intense convection. Until I see that, I won't look for development, regardless of a circulation or not.

In West Africa a fairly impressive tropical wave is moving offshore as I type. This one, just as the previous one, doesn't have to contend with dry air, but it is coming at a fairly high latitude 15-16N, which would support only slow development, if any.

The one I'm more concerned about for possible development is the one still in West Africa near 10N 3W. This one has a good-sized low pressure system and it is in a low latitude. Convection has been rather persistent over the continent, which is common of the monster waves that eventually develop. I'll be watching this one for sure.

Agree with your discussion about what is going on in that part of the world.Regardless of what occurs with the wave near 30w the parade behind is impressive and I fear that there will be no rest from now on watching that region.That wave that you mentioned around 10n-3w I am also keeping an eye as it moves off the coast in the next couple of days.

#189 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 9:19 am

Hey folks you can post sat pics or discuss about the waves inside Africa and in the atlantic in this thread.It looks like the CV season is going to start soon to deliver.

Rainband · #190 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 10:30 am

Keep an eye to the east Luis.

#191 Postby **wx247** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 10:56 am

You know what? I actually got some sleep last night. It is a foreign concept... I know!!! :clap:

#192 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 10:59 am

wx247 wrote:You know what? I actually got some sleep last night. It is a foreign concept... I know!!!

Yes I know what you mean Garrett.Things will break lose very soon in this part of the world.

Astro_man92 · #193 Postby **Astro_man92** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 11:00 am

So how is the tropical wave (or harvey as some people have been calling it) doing

#194 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:01 pm

...TROPICAL WAVES...

EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W/31W S OF 22N MOVING W 15
KT WITH A 1014 MB LOW EMBEDDED ALONG THE WAVE AND ITCZ NEAR
10.5N31W. MET-8 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTERED ALMOST 500 NM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR 14N/15N...
QUIKSCAT IMAGERY FROM 0740Z INDICATED THAT THE LOW IS FARTHER S
NEAR THE ITCZ. DRY AND STABLE AIR IN THE MID/LOW LEVELS...
INDICATED BY THE STRATOCU FIELD TO THE N...IS BEING ENTRAINED
INTO THE N AND W SIDE OF THE WAVE WHICH IS KEEPING THE BULK OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL S OF THE ITCZ. OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE NEAR THE LOW FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL ANALYZED FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO 14N53W
22N50W MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A WEAK 1015 MB LOW NEAR 15N53W.
THE LOW IS BASED ON SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURES NEAR BUOY 41040 AND
A WEAK CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD. THE WAVE
HAS BEEN SHARPLY TILTED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND UPPER AIR
SOUNDING DATA FROM SEVERAL OF THE STATIONS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES INDICATE THAT THE SRN PORTION OF THE WAVE MAY HAVE
BROKEN AWAY FROM THE MORE WELL-DEFINED NRN PART. THE 18Z
ANALYSIS WILL REFLECT THIS BY PLACING A TRPCL WAVE JUST E OF THE
ABC ISLANDS...AND MAKING THE FEATURE STILL E OF THE ISLANDS A
SFC TROF/LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE LOW FROM
15N-17N BETWEEN 51W-54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO N OF THE
ABC ISLANDS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 66W-70W. THE WAVE IS SURROUNDED
BY A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS LIMITING CONVECTION...AND
THE LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST AS IT NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES.
MOISTURE VALUES WILL RISE A BIT BEHIND THE WAVE BUT THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION.

Discussion of 2:05 PM about the 2 waves right now in the atlantic.

I am still watching that wave near 30w just in case it consolidates as it moves more west.Waiting for wave inside Africa to emerge at a fairly low latitud to see what happens.

#195 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:31 pm

Not much in future development discussed about the waves in the TWD, at least in the short term; but surely long paragraphs for both!

#196 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:35 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Not much in future development discussed about the waves in the TWD, at least in the short term; but surely long paragraphs for both!

You said it Short Term as in the long run things surely will be hot there.

#197 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:26 pm

Astro_man92 wrote:So how is the tropical wave (or harvey as some people have been calling it) doing

It's very early to say even if a TD will form in the comming days in the eastern atlantic.Plenty of time to watch that area in the comming days.

wxmann_91 · #198 Postby **wxmann_91** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 4:18 pm

The wave WSW of the Cape Verde Islands is starting to organize now. If this continues it might pop up in the NHC Tropical Outlook at 21:30Z or 3:30Z.

I'm betting an INVEST by tomorrow.

#199 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 4:22 pm

682
ABNT20 KNHC 252120
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

No mention of any waves at the 5:30 PM outlook.My best guess is that the folks of NHC are waiting for more organization to take place to then start to mention it at the TWO and also to have an invest up.

Swimdude · #200 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 5:26 pm

What's this i've been hearing about the Sahara dust storm? How will this affect development?

Atlantic Waves,Discussions and sat pics

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