Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[drezee]

ok, listin to me. i was the one who knew this thing was going to affect SFL, even before it was in the cone, and really none of trusted me. well, i was right!

Oh you are so smart! Next NHC conference call I'll tell Stacy Stewart there is a new king in town and he and the rest of the gang should quit...because we have a gut-call forecaster to take their place that is a lot better than all the other pro-mets.

Glad we have you here. Here...you can take my place.

I see you are in rare form today...keep 'em coming...I am LMBO!!!

[chrisnnavarre]

Something is not right, can't put my finger on it, but its not right. This storm will not be visiting S or SW Florida. There have been only a couple rare approaches to Florida like the models suggest. Look for one of two scenarios to play out. One - The hurricane slows considerably as it makes it trek, along, in and over Cuba, leading to a reemgergence early on Thur off the North Western tip of Cuba to then threaten Western or Central Gulf from Galveston to Ft. Walton beach. Two - Storm heads slowly northwest across Haiti, north, east of Florida threatening N.C. to Maine.

As it moves across Cuba it weakens, and weak means West. Once in the Gulf it will again strengthen and strong means North. Every thing depends on Cuba, transit time and exit location. - I believe this is the most likely scenario right now. Difficult one at best, at least as far as knowing exactly what areas are to be affected.

[johngaltfla]

Interesting update from Steve Lyons just a few minutes ago; he's saying after the ULL interaction ends, it will cross over the Eastern tip of Cuba then move west through the Florida Straits before recurving. This means he's favoring the far right side of the CONE OF DEATH as opposed to the middle or more Western solution.

Fascinating.

[Scorpion]

Interesting update from Steve Lyons just a few minutes ago; he's saying after the ULL interaction ends, it will cross over the Eastern tip of Cuba then move west through the Florida Straits before recurving. This means he's favoring the far right side of the CONE OF DEATH as opposed to the middle or more Western solution.

Fascinating.

If it does that, it would be traversing some very warm water.

[Stormcenter]

I just woke up and I can honestly say I'm not surprised. We all saw the changes last night with the models but didn't want to believe them. Well I still think Ernesto future path is not a done deal so from MS/AL eastward all eyes should be kepted on Ernesto.

[Portastorm]

The debate here on Ernesto's eventual landfall has been, at times, humorous, maddening, and englightening. But now that we appear to have solid consensus on a Florida west coast landfall, I sure hope there is a consistent message being broadcast to regular folks that now is the time to seriously consider what they are going to do in the next 72 hrs, because we very well may have a killer on the doorstep of Florida's west coast by Thursday.

[bvigal]

Is this an actual model? Which model is it? I can't find a name on it anywhere???

[rxdoc]

bvigal, that is the 0600Z GFDL model.

[ROCK]

I just woke up and I can honestly say I'm not surprised. We all saw the changes last night with the models but didn't want to believe them. Well I still think Ernesto future path is not a done deal so from MS/AL eastward all eyes should keep a close on Ernesto.

yep, I am surprised though....Attm I don't even think MS/AL is going to be an issue.......I say left eventhing says right.....ok....right I go....

[seaswing]

just woke up myself.... models look like they are going straight through my house

[drezee]

Having the GFS scoring a coup is like having my little brother beating me at basketball....it's not that I mind losing...but I know that I am going to hear the annoying chatter for days!

[rainstorm]

if it moves over that peninsula all those tracks will have to be adjusted east

[drezee]

that is the GFDL

[chris_fit]

Is this an actual model? Which model is it? I can't find a name on it anywhere???

GFDL, says it right near the top of the pic

[Air Force Met]

I see you are in rare form today...keep 'em coming...I am LMBO!!!

I just think I've reached my limit.

[Seele]

Something is not right, can't put my finger on it, but its not right. This storm will not be visiting S or SW Florida. There have been only a couple rare approaches to Florida like the models suggest. Look for one of two scenarios to play out. One - The hurricane slows considerably as it makes it trek, along, in and over Cuba, leading to a reemgergence early on Thur off the North Western tip of Cuba to then threaten Western or Central Gulf from Galveston to Ft. Walton beach. Two - Storm heads slowly northwest across Haiti, north, east of Florida threatening N.C. to Maine.

As it moves across Cuba it weakens, and weak means West. Once in the Gulf it will again strengthen and strong means North. Every thing depends on Cuba, transit time and exit location. - I believe this is the most likely scenario right now. Difficult one at best, at least as far as knowing exactly what areas are to be affected.

I don't think the weaker system going west applies here. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but from looking at the steering maps on UW-CIMSS's site. the ridge is stronger at the higher levels. The more intense Ernesto gets, the more effect that ridge will have in pushing him west.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html

[LanceW]

I see you are in rare form today...keep 'em coming...I am LMBO!!!

I just think I've reached my limit.

AFM: I too like learning from your insights and experience. Dont let the kids get to you. (USAF SF 90 - 98)

[rxdoc]

AF Met, ignore the "I told you so" posters on this board. We know who is truly reputable and who is not.

[stormspotter]

Based on the observations of the latest watervapor loops, the small ULL low that has been causing the recent northward movements of Big "E" is now becoming a null factor and we will see Big "E" begin its more western track between Jamaica and Cuba today. Western and Central Gulf Coast keep your eyes open and be ready to act come Thur thru Sat. Not a Florida event east of Ft. Walton as some models have suggested.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

[rockyman]

Seele, you are right...the high in the upper levels is actually centered over Georgia (instead of off the SE Coast) (of course, this is based on current data and these maps do not project future steering flow):

Stronger storm steering:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

Weaker storm steering:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html