TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[rnbaida]

we'll have to wait until 5pm i guess....

[WindRunner]

we'll have to wait until 5pm i guess....

Assuming it continues to improve, yes. But it definately still has some work to do before warranting an upgrade.

[wxman57]

Model data still say "Tropical Disturbance Invest" up top. Monterey has it as Invest 90L in the navigation frame. Watch for 18Z model data to have a "Tropcial Depression Six" header, though.

I'm about 95% sure this will remain well out to sea. Deep trof along the east U.S. coast should prevent it from affecting the U.S., and it'll likely track north of the Caribbean.

[rnbaida]

we'll have to wait until 5pm i guess....

Assuming it continues to improve, yes. But it definately still has some work to do before warranting an upgrade.

It looks developed enough to be TD

[ThunderMate]

Isn't the High susposed to build back fairly strong though to prevent at least an early recurve wxman57??

[NFLDART]

Looks very healthy this am.

[WindRunner]

Looking at loops, I'm not entirely sold on this having a closed circulation. Yes, I know the LLC is strong and well-defined, but I do see some cloud elements that appear to still be drifting westward on the southern side of the storm. I'll agree that the 18Z models will most likely run with Six, and that is the appropriate call since this thing will be a TD later today if it isn't by 18Z, but I'm still not entirely sure as to the completeness of the ground-relative circ. I'm probably just being nitpicky, but that's what I'm seeing.

[wxman57]

It looks developed enough to be TD

It's hard to tell without any surface observations if it has a well-defined LLC. Satellite imagery can be quite deceiving, as you're looking mostly at the mid levels of the system - up around 10,000-20,000 ft. Another factor here is that is is so far out to sea and it's no immediate (or possibly future) threat to anyone, so the NHC won't rush to upgrade it.

As a side note, I'd give this system about a 90-95% shot at developing. And I think it may well be the first major hurricane of 2006.

[brunota2003]

As long as it goes out to sea, I will be happy...no Eastern NC threat...we can't take another dousing:

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

COUNTY WIDE FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT WEST OF HIGHWAY 17.
FLOOD WATERS RESULTING FROM HEAVY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
ERNESTO LAST FRIDAY WILL BE SLOW TO RECEDE OVER THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WIDESPREAD FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING
IN SOME AREAS AND NEW FLOODING IN AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 17.

No more for me...let it be a fish!!! Someone call the NHC and tell them they need to tell this storm to go out to sea!!! However...I'm not completely set on it recurving...but it better!
[/End Rant] I do expect it to be a TD here soon though...havent looked at the latest visible/the rest of them, or the models today...

[Brent]

11:30am TWO!!!

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. IF THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INITIATED THIS
AFTERNOON.

[tgenius]

11:30am TWO!!!

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. IF THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INITIATED THIS
AFTERNOON.

Should cure your case of boredom eh Brent? I'm curious to see that initial disco if they do begin the advisories...

[Frank2]

Yesterday's GFS did show this system (or something at that same longitude) recurivng in two or three days...

This could be one reason why the NHC now has it moving northwestward, though this morning's GFS run showed something very different - we'll see...

Frank

[caneman]

06 GFDL appears to take it WNW towards end of run.

OF xourse it's not showing much development either

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Extremeweatherguy]

I wouldn't be so sure about this curving out to sea. Though I do not really trust these early models, it still should be noted that every one of them turns this back westward. Basically, like with Ernesto, I think no path can be ruled out just yet.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say we will have TD6 at 5pm.

Now will 99L also develop into TD7?

[tgenius]

I wouldn't be so sure about this curving out to sea. Though I do not really trust these early models, it still should be noted that every one of them turns this back westward. Basically, like with Ernesto, I think no path can be ruled out just yet.

I'll be the first to say I hate those paths they take.. because there's literally no landmass to weaken/slow them down... (Yes, I know these are models that will change)

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'd say we will have TD6 at 5pm.

Now will 99L also develop into TD7?

99L doesn't look too good this morning. If it does develop into something it would likely be a couple of days down the road. I probably wouldn't worry about it much until it reached the western Caribbean (assuming it still has some convection with it).

[rnbaida]

Nice close-up of the convection....

[jusforsean]

I was just breezing thru some old posts on Wilma bringing back some memories of when the first plots of wilma came out and i will never forget only one model had it heading to us the rest were somewhere more north i believe i was trying to find it but i couldnt, anyways i remember saying to myself thats the one and the rest will follow suit , looking at the plots of all of these storms in the last day makes one wonder if they are all in agreeance this early on, but then again look at ernesto , you never really know!!

[HurricaneHunter914]

The tropics are starting to heat up with Ernesto, Debby and possibly Florence in less than a month.