it has been confirmed that it is a hurricane...11am advisory has it at hurricane statusEvil Jeremy wrote:steve lions says its a hurricane.
Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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WeatherTracker
- Tropical Storm
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- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:31 pm
- Location: ATLANTA
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WeatherTracker
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 143
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:31 pm
- Location: ATLANTA
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on September 16, 2006
...Helene becomes the fourth hurricane of the Atlantic season...
At 1100 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 18.8 north...longitude 45.6 west or about 1145 miles
...1845 km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.
Helene is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Helene is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles...280 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb...29.15 inches.
Repeating the 1100 am AST position...18.8 N...45.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75 mph.
Minimum central pressure...987 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven/landsea
Statement as of 11:00 am AST on September 16, 2006
...Helene becomes the fourth hurricane of the Atlantic season...
At 1100 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 18.8 north...longitude 45.6 west or about 1145 miles
...1845 km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.
Helene is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and
this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Helene is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175
miles...280 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb...29.15 inches.
Repeating the 1100 am AST position...18.8 N...45.6 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...75 mph.
Minimum central pressure...987 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Beven/landsea
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WeatherTracker
- Tropical Storm
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- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:31 pm
- Location: ATLANTA
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WeatherTracker
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 143
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:31 pm
- Location: ATLANTA
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
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Frank2 wrote:That GFS model is interesting, but, it looks like we have bigger fish to fry, however (I couldn't resist the pun) - we might have to keep an eye on the "I" when it comes along...
Frank
You really think so, Frank? It looks like we will have another CV system next week, but the synoptics don't look that much different. A long tracker just seems unlikely this season.
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Derek Ortt
I'm in a rare good mood today (but may not be after tonight if I lose $$ on college football)
if the trough is a little stronger than the GFS is indicating, Helene would not hit Halifix, but Cape Cod and Maine (with a good blow to Boston)
but it is the GFS and most here know how much I detest that model
if the trough is a little stronger than the GFS is indicating, Helene would not hit Halifix, but Cape Cod and Maine (with a good blow to Boston)
but it is the GFS and most here know how much I detest that model
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Frank2 wrote:Destructo,
Chicken of the Sea is my favorite (with mayo and pickle)...
Frank
P.S. sma10 - the GFS does seem to show more ridging across the western Atlantic over the next week or so...
The question of course is.... Would "I" storm get even far enough west to feel that ridging. For the longest time the GFS had been recurving that storm-to-be way, way out east.
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DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
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- Location: Stuart, FL
sma10 wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:I'm in a rare good mood today (but may not be after tonight if I lose $$ on college football)
Well, if you got Miami over Louisville.....then....you might be in trouble.
No doubt...Louisvlle may be the BB of the day...Miami WILL take a beating by at least 15 pts..
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WeatherTracker
- Tropical Storm
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- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:31 pm
- Location: ATLANTA
latest model tracks-
WeatherTracker
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 143
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2006 8:31 pm
- Location: ATLANTA
12z GFS is out to 84hrs, so far it looks identical to the 6z run.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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Thunder44 wrote:12z GFS is out to 84hrs, so far it looks identical to the 6z run.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Yep. GFS still likes that due west motion. But keep this in mind: The GFS plans are entirely contingent on Gordon getting out of the way quickly. We'll see if that transpires.
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