Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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ronjon
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#181 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:32 am

The 11 am NHC Disc says it all:

HELENE CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE JUST EAST OF THE UNITED STATES CAST. THEN...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT THE AREA...THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BUILD WESTWARD FORCING HELENE TO TEMPORARILY TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AFTER 3 DAYS...A LARGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND FINALLY PICK UP HELENE. THE DILEMMA IS HOW FAR WEST WILL HELENE GO SINCE TWO GOOD MODELS DIVERGE...PUTTING ME BETWEEN A ROCK AND HARD PLACE. THE GOOD GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTIONS WHILE THE OUTSTANDING AND HARD TO BEAT GFDL HAS HELENE TURNING NORTHWARD FARTHER EAST.

Nice to see scientists struggle like the rest of us! :lol:
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#182 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:36 am

ronjon wrote:The 11 am NHC Disc says it all:

HELENE CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE JUST EAST OF THE UNITED STATES CAST. THEN...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT THE AREA...THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BUILD WESTWARD FORCING HELENE TO TEMPORARILY TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AFTER 3 DAYS...A LARGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND FINALLY PICK UP HELENE. THE DILEMMA IS HOW FAR WEST WILL HELENE GO SINCE TWO GOOD MODELS DIVERGE...PUTTING ME BETWEEN A ROCK AND HARD PLACE. THE GOOD GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTIONS WHILE THE OUTSTANDING AND HARD TO BEAT GFDL HAS HELENE TURNING NORTHWARD FARTHER EAST.

Nice to see scientists struggle like the rest of us! :lol:


The main issue is whether or not Helene might threaten Bermuda. I'm sure that's what they're struggling with.
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#183 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:43 am

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:wxman57,now Helene is easy to track.You dont have to post the images with the L's or symbols. :)


Can you find the center now?


Well,I see multiple centers rotating around a mean one.I see inflow going to the center at 21.0n-48.7w.Of course jk :lol:
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#184 Postby jusforsean » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:46 am

Question: On this link I can get the 144hr run for the GFS, however last night for that brief "crazy run" the GFS was more hours out. Is there a link to access the models farther out??

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation
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#185 Postby storms in NC » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:50 am

The front is moving fast across the states. If this happens will it or will not get picked up?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/loop-avn.html
Last edited by storms in NC on Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:53 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#186 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:52 am

12z GFS Loop at 36 Hours
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#187 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 17, 2006 10:57 am

12z GFS Loop at 60 Hours
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#188 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:06 am

12z GFS Loop at 90 Hours
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#189 Postby stormchazer » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:17 am

cycloneye wrote:12z GFS Loop at 90 Hours


Lets hope that the front depicted here isw as sharp as it is being progged or I think we could have some concerns next week. If I were the Carolinas north, I would keep an eye to make sure the scenario plays out.

Still lookjs like maybe a Bermuda threat, IMHO.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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#190 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:19 am

12z GFS loop at 114 Hours
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#191 Postby WeatherTracker » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:19 am

cycloneye wrote:12z GFS at 114 Hours


starting to recurve well east of the US.... :D :D :D
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#192 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:21 am

WeatherTracker wrote:
cycloneye wrote:12z GFS at 114 Hours


starting to recurve well east of the US.... :D :D :D


But Bermuda looks like a big threat from Helene.Let's wait for more hours to complete and see the whole track to see if Nova Scotia and NewFoundland are going to see this.
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#193 Postby storms in NC » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:23 am

By the last one you can see that it turning. But the front is not going to be that strong to pick it up if this get up to a cat3-4 hurricane. It will miss the front. It looks to be a small window that it can be picked up.JMO I Not a Met. And from what I have read on here there is differences between them.
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#194 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:29 am

12z GFS Loop at 138 Hours

Recurving but still Bermuda is there maybe it will go east of the island.More loops will confirm if it passes west or east of there.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#195 Postby jusforsean » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:29 am

when will that flight data be put in the models today? Not recon but the other one ?
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#196 Postby storms in NC » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:35 am

cycloneye wrote:12z GFS Loop at 138 Hours

Recurving but still Bermuda is there maybe it will go east of the island.More loops will confirm if it passes west or east of there.


Did you see that cuver back to the west over Bermuda
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#197 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:35 am

12z GFS Loop at 156 Hours
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#198 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:38 am

why do you keep on postion diffrent model loop links?
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#199 Postby storms in NC » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:40 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:why do you keep on postion diffrent model loop links?


It is all the same model but at different hours
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#200 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 11:41 am

why not post only one model loop with the biggest time lapse instead of posting all of them?
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