Ex Invest 95L

[Aric Dunn]

you obviously dont know what curved banding features look like.. although not wraping all the way around they are there and are much more defined then they were yesterday

The only way you can qualify the line of thunderstorms as curved banding features is if you want to argue subtropically. As for now, the "banding" features are not within 100 miles of the center of circulation (which, for now, is inland NW of Lake Okeechobee) and therefore are not even connected to the center, much less wrapped around.

wow .. your lost... the circualtion of any system has band that reach hundreds of miles out.... you just did understand what i was saying... if you cant look at the satellite and see curved cloud lines .. then i dont know what to tell you .. no its not banding as in a hurricane which would be bands wraping all the way around the center.. but this what the beginnings of many system look like in the low levels.. i have been watching the tropics and hurricanes invest and all sorts of crap.. for nearly 15 years.. i can tell you that what your are seeing are curves.. lol not straight lines... maybe some geometry might help

[Aric Dunn]

Actually, it's only been a "system" for about 42 hours now . . . not exactly persistence . . .

maybe an invest..
but it has been fighting the shear for much longer than that.. as a tropical wave and even when it started "organizing" enough to be a invest still shear..

Invest status is just up to 24 hours now. 12z yesterday was the official declaration of invest. Low pressure has only been there for 42 hours, since about 21z the day before. Unorganzied convection has been there about two and a half days.

So yes, it's been fighting the shear. Only problem is that it's losing . . . badly.


And FYI, the shortwave should pick it up in about 48-60 hours . . .



EDIT: to correct invest time.

losing.. !! hmmm . .i would say the overall cloud structure in the low levels is much more defined today then it was yesterday.. but hey no big deal

[wzrgirl1]

you obviously dont know what curved banding features look like.. although not wraping all the way around they are there and are much more defined then they were yesterday

The only way you can qualify the line of thunderstorms as curved banding features is if you want to argue subtropically. As for now, the "banding" features are not within 100 miles of the center of circulation (which, for now, is inland NW of Lake Okeechobee) and therefore are not even connected to the center, much less wrapped around.

wow .. your lost... the circualtion of any system has band that reach hundreds of miles out.... you just did understand what i was saying... if you cant look at the satellite and curved cloud lines .. then i dont know what to tell you .. no its not banding as in a hurricane which would and band wraping all the way around the center.. but this is the beginnings .. i have been watching the tropics and hurricanes invest and all sorts of crap.. for nearly 15 years.. i can tell you that what your are seeing are curves.. lol not straight lines... maybe some geometry might help

please try to keep the sarcasm at a minimum.......we are all learning here....some of us not as knowledgeable as you.....a brief explanation as opposed to sarcasm might help the poster better understand....thank you

[Aric Dunn]

sorry .. about that..

[windstorm99]

This area of low pressure remains very weak and the important thing in my opinion is it brought some parts of florida some much needed rain.Significant development is unlikely as upper levels winds are unfavorable.The low will slowly move out to sea.

[SouthFloridawx]

Uhhh umm... Uncomfortable situation, calls for desperate measures...

Bears Watching?

[pojo]

This WILL NOT be an LLI... the POD came back Double Neg.

[pojo]

You have to remember there are also new personnel onboard the aircraft... we also have training to do.

As of yesterday this system was recon worthy... I'm waiting for call from my scheduler to see if I'm flying into the LLI tomorrow.

Negative



Shannon,the latest TCPOD is here.

I wait for official word from our (in house) CARCAH and my schedulers.

[jaxfladude]

Bye, bye 95L Invest! Next?

[Cyclone1]

Bye, bye 95L Invest! Next?

I'm saying southwest Caribbean tomorrow/Monday for 96L.

[WindRunner]

you obviously dont know what curved banding features look like.. although not wraping all the way around they are there and are much more defined then they were yesterday

The only way you can qualify the line of thunderstorms as curved banding features is if you want to argue subtropically. As for now, the "banding" features are not within 100 miles of the center of circulation (which, for now, is inland NW of Lake Okeechobee) and therefore are not even connected to the center, much less wrapped around.

wow .. your lost... the circualtion of any system has band that reach hundreds of miles out.... you just did understand what i was saying... if you cant look at the satellite and curved cloud lines .. then i dont know what to tell you .. no its not banding as in a hurricane which would and band wraping all the way around the center.. but this is the beginnings .. i have been watching the tropics and hurricanes invest and all sorts of crap.. for nearly 15 years.. i can tell you that what your are seeing are curves.. lol not straight lines... maybe some geometry might help

OK. Maybe pictures will help.




Red is the circulation center. It is easy to see if you look at the clouds to the east and west of it for the two hours prior to the cumulus formation that's apparent in this image. Green is cloud motion that also supports that center. Blue is the bands - that first blue band off to the east is 75 miles removed from the center, the furthest is about 140 miles. Yellow are "bands" which could form convection later but are more part of the circulatin than anything else.

[WindRunner]

losing.. !! hmmm . .i would say the overall cloud structure in the low levels is much more defined today then it was yesterday.. but hey no big deal

The LLC has nothing to do with its battle against the shear. Shear is at the upper levels, where the LLC is not. So yes, the LLC is doing better today, as you would expect with a slowly deepening low pressure center. However, the convection is not doing better today because of the shear. Until we see a far more consistent area of convection actually over the center of circulation, this thing doesn't even have a chance of becoming a TC.

[Aric Dunn]

losing.. !! hmmm . .i would say the overall cloud structure in the low levels is much more defined today then it was yesterday.. but hey no big deal

The LLC has nothing to do with its battle against the shear. Shear is at the upper levels, where the LLC is not. So yes, the LLC is doing better today, as you would expect with a slowly deepening low pressure center. However, the convection is not doing better today because of the shear. Until we see a far more consistent area of convection actually over the center of circulation, this thing doesn't even have a chance of becoming a TC.

thankyou!!
so what are we discussing then ?

now everything i said you said.. we we agree ..

there is always a chance

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There is no concentrated convection.
The center is over land.
The convection has been sheared off.
Upper Level Winds are too strong.
This will not develop. It just won't.
95L is dead.

[Aric Dunn]

There is no concentrated convection.
The center is over land.
The convection has been sheared off.
Upper Level Winds are too strong.
This will not develop. It just won't.
95L is dead.

good then quit watching it

[hurricanefloyd5]

There is no concentrated convection.
The center is over land.
The convection has been sheared off.
Upper Level Winds are too strong.
This will not develop. It just won't.
95L is dead.

good then quit watching it

LOL !!!!!Well said aric!!!!!!!LOL ROFLMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I don't see how giving four good reasons why 95L won't
develop qualifies as spam.
I am stating the facts...and have as much a right to post
the facts as others do to post their facts.
Some people don't want to hear the facts and
instead prefer to unjustly tell members like me to
"Quit watching it".

The NHC discussion said the upper level winds
are unfavorable...that means that upper
level winds are unfavorable and not conducive
to development...

I think the NHC discussion will
have the most credibility here....

The only reason I will stop posting in this thread
is that this thread is degenerating into something
inconducive for other viewpoints. So I think this
will be my final post in this thread.

Have a great weekend.

[cpdaman]

tampa bay

what ARIC and others are saying is that there is always a chance and thus it is never smart to say there is NO CHANCE when a low is in s.fl with 85 degree water around it

the NHC says upper level winds are not favorable NOW, and also they said upperlevel winds are not favorable for barry but sometimes they can become marginally favorable and allow development

so there maybe a 5% chance , just don't say 0%

[hurricanefloyd5]

I don't see how giving four good reasons why 95L won't
develop qualifies as spam.
I am stating the facts...and have as much a right to post
the facts as others do to post their facts.
Some people don't want to hear the facts and
instead prefer to unjustly tell members like me to
"Quit watching it".

The NHC discussion said the upper level winds
are unfavorable...that means that upper
level winds are unfavorable and not conducive
to development...

I think the NHC discussion will
have the most credibility here....

The only reason I will stop posting in this thread
is that this thread is degenerating into something
inconducive for other viewpoints. So I think this
will be my final post in this thread.

Have a great weekend.

you keep watching it if you like but everyone and i do mean everyone on this board to give there opinion and agree and disagree am I right????????????

[Aric Dunn]

tampa bay

what ARIC and others are saying is that there is always a chance and thus it is never smart to say there is NO CHANCE when a low is in s.fl with 85 degree water around it

the NHC says upper level winds are not favorable NOW, and also they said upperlevel winds are not favorable for barry but sometimes they can become marginally favorable and allow development

so there maybe a 5% chance , just don't say 0%

thank you
was kind of getting sick of explaining my self