2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[WeatherHoon]

Things sure do change quickly based on 1 or 2 model runs lol.

[bamajammer4eva]

Are you talking about this year? No 40s anywhere near here, 60s maybe, but not even close to 40s!

That latter scenario seems plausible based upon the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks which lean warmer and drier than normal across Florida. Worth watching how these evolve in the coming days in addition to the model runs.

That could be true though things have been progressive so far and We've had fronts come thru on the northern gulf coast dropping temps into the upper 40s into the Florida panhandle. The fronts have been dry and thus the continued drought conditions across central and northern Alabama/Georgia. A very weak front is supposed to come around Saturday but gets washed out so overall just a warming trend through at least early-mid next week.

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk

I was referring to NW Florida which I remember someone here saying last year that once your first cold front comes through its highly unlikely that you have anymore tropical systems in your area because they'll usually turn. Yesterday's gfs Ensemble still showed big bend area getting storm from the modeled Caribbean system however.

Here's wjhg tweet from yesterday showing 40s.

 http://twitter.com/WJHG_TV/status/785806956514598912




Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

Nothing to see here 12z GFS weak low buried into CA.

[WeatherHoon]

The only model that shows any significant development is the Canadian. Starting to think that maybe nothing will happen next week, but you never know. I've been too preoccupied with checking each model run. Gonna take a step away and check back this weekend. Definitely feeling less nervous.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS out through day 10 show gradual development of a broad low that forms in the SW Caribbean with the system moving little:

[WeatherEmperor]

12z GFS does show development around 168hrs. Here is 234hrs.




Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[SFLcane]

Nothing to be nervous about with models 10 days out.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Nothing to be nervous about with models 10 days out.

No storm is ever something to be nervous about. Its about being vigilant. Isnt this why were here? To talk tropics?

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS finally moves it north out of the SW Caribbean in the long-range and really starts to deepen it in the NW Carib...not sure I buy the low sits near Nicaragua for a week like the GFS shows.

[gatorcane]

[TheStormExpert]

What I think is going on right now is models are trying to get a handle on when and how quickly this potential broad low will develop in the SW Caribbean and lift north towards the NW Caribbean while deepening.

[gatorcane]

How the run ends:

[USTropics]

This is a pretty complicated situation for the models to resolve, which is why development is still an uncertainty between model runs. The past several GFS run shows two competing vorticities starting in about 110-120 hour time frame (a clearer image below at 156 hours). You can see 3-4 of these occurrences throughout the evolution of the 12z GFS run. ECMWF showed the same evolution in earlier runs, with a progressive pattern of developing the northern vort near Jamaica. Throw in a developing CAG and it creates an extremely difficult situation to model.

[otowntiger]

This is a pretty complicated situation for the models to resolve, which is why development is still an uncertainty between model runs. The past several GFS run shows two competing vorticities starting in about 110-120 hour time frame (a clearer image below at 156 hours). You can see 3-4 of these occurrences throughout the evolution of the 12z GFS run. ECMWF showed the same evolution in earlier runs, with a progressive pattern of developing the northern vort near Jamaica. Throw in a developing CAG and it creates an extremely difficult situation to model.

Whats a "CAG"?

[USTropics]

This is a pretty complicated situation for the models to resolve, which is why development is still an uncertainty between model runs. The past several GFS run shows two competing vorticities starting in about 110-120 hour time frame (a clearer image below at 156 hours). You can see 3-4 of these occurrences throughout the evolution of the 12z GFS run. ECMWF showed the same evolution in earlier runs, with a progressive pattern of developing the northern vort near Jamaica. Throw in a developing CAG and it creates an extremely difficult situation to model.

http://i.imgur.com/BSGxgxI.png

Whats a "CAG"?

Central American gyres (CAGs) are broad (~1000 km diameter) low-level cyclonic circulations that organize over Central America during the tropical cyclone (TC) season.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.A33L3376P

[gatorcane]

What the heck is the ECMWF doing? 144 hours below:

[WeatherHoon]

Yeah, the Euro is doing something strange. Maybe a bad run?

[USTropics]

Two vorticities rotating around a common center at 168 hours in the 12z ECMWF. GFS has a similar setup, but significantly more to the south.



GFS at the same time frame

[gatorcane]

192 hours:

[SouthFLTropics]

I think what we're seeing here from the model output today is a typical monsoon gyre that takes a while to come together. We may get something to form at the surface but with competing vorts it is going to take some time to come together. I don't think we see the right away development like we saw with Matthew.