2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SoupBone]

I feel better now. 18Z GFS keeps the major hurricane out of the Gulf. I'm sure it's correct THIS time. Looking like a storm-free August. No named storm since early July.

I wholeheartedly agree that the GFS is king, until the next run.

[Cpv17]

I feel better now. 18Z GFS keeps the major hurricane out of the Gulf. I'm sure it's correct THIS time. Looking like a storm-free August. No named storm since early July.

I wholeheartedly agree that the GFS is king, until the next run.

Maybe the operational didn’t clobber Houston this time but the 18z GEFS sure did.

[ConvergenceZone]

I feel better now. 18Z GFS keeps the major hurricane out of the Gulf. I'm sure it's correct THIS time. Looking like a storm-free August. No named storm since early July.

And people thought I was nuts! when I mentioned first week of September for next storm.... We'll see. I could still have been nuts, but maybe not......

[aspen]

I feel better now. 18Z GFS keeps the major hurricane out of the Gulf. I'm sure it's correct THIS time. Looking like a storm-free August. No named storm since early July.

This would be the first season to have zero storms in August since 1997…an El Niño year that had 4 NS in July.

What the heck is up with this season

[Cpv17]

I feel better now. 18Z GFS keeps the major hurricane out of the Gulf. I'm sure it's correct THIS time. Looking like a storm-free August. No named storm since early July.

This would be the first season to have zero storms in August since 1997…an El Niño year that had 4 NS in July.

What the heck is up with this season

Still plenty of time for a NS in August.

[aspen]

I feel better now. 18Z GFS keeps the major hurricane out of the Gulf. I'm sure it's correct THIS time. Looking like a storm-free August. No named storm since early July.

This would be the first season to have zero storms in August since 1997…an El Niño year that had 4 NS in July.

What the heck is up with this season

Still plenty of time for a NS in August.

Correct. We could even have a 2018-like scenario where the peak season kicks off with a MDR storm that doesn’t form until the last day of the month. But if these modeled storms get pushed back into September, that means we’re running behind a freaking El Niño year. Something seems very wrong with the atmosphere, and I don’t know if it started with the October 2021 activity shutdown or the Tonga volcanic eruption in January.

[wwizard]

I feel better now. 18Z GFS keeps the major hurricane out of the Gulf. I'm sure it's correct THIS time. Looking like a storm-free August. No named storm since early July.

This would be the first season to have zero storms in August since 1997…an El Niño year that had 4 NS in July.

What the heck is up with this season

Only 3 August shutouts since 1930.
1997, 1961, 1941

[TheDreamTraveler]

I feel better now. 18Z GFS keeps the major hurricane out of the Gulf. I'm sure it's correct THIS time. Looking like a storm-free August. No named storm since early July.

This would be the first season to have zero storms in August since 1997…an El Niño year that had 4 NS in July.

What the heck is up with this season

After the record breaking back to back seasons of 2020 and 2021 the Atlantic needs time to recharge. It can't just be an endless outputting machine every year. This happens pretty often after a few back to back hyperactive seasons. The one following is a lot quieter and there's usually very many reasons as to why

[TheDreamTraveler]

This would be the first season to have zero storms in August since 1997…an El Niño year that had 4 NS in July.

What the heck is up with this season

Still plenty of time for a NS in August.

Correct. We could even have a 2018-like scenario where the peak season kicks off with a MDR storm that doesn’t form until the last day of the month. But if these modeled storms get pushed back into September, that means we’re running behind a freaking El Niño year. Something seems very wrong with the atmosphere, and I don’t know if it started with the October 2021 activity shutdown or the Tonga volcanic eruption in January.

The Tonga volcano wasn't even strong enough to put a dent in lowering the Southern Hemisphere's temperature. If it had any effect we'd have been seeing it by now. I do agree though that this slow start in 2022 might be related to the sudden shutdown in October of last year though

[BobHarlem]

0z icon


The cape verde system is the middle one here, which it eventually loses, I'm not sure where the westernmost one is from (e carib) but it does develop more as it gets closer to Jamaica in the icon.

[skyline385]

ICON 0Z has a system in the Caribbean from interaction with the cold surge coming off SA near Venezuela. There were several members on the EPS for this system as well.



Reposting this Papin tweet from the Indicators thread for some information on this, the one on ICON forms in the exact same location as seen on the GFS in his tweet.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561479456794894337

[aspen]

Still plenty of time for a NS in August.

Correct. We could even have a 2018-like scenario where the peak season kicks off with a MDR storm that doesn’t form until the last day of the month. But if these modeled storms get pushed back into September, that means we’re running behind a freaking El Niño year. Something seems very wrong with the atmosphere, and I don’t know if it started with the October 2021 activity shutdown or the Tonga volcanic eruption in January.

The Tonga volcano wasn't even strong enough to put a dent in lowering the Southern Hemisphere's temperature. If it had any effect we'd have been seeing it by now. I do agree though that this slow start in 2022 might be related to the sudden shutdown in October of last year though

This was posted in the indicators thread, but the Tonga eruption ejected a lot of water vapor into the mesosphere, and was the only volcanic eruption in recorded history known to each that high into the atmosphere. Therefore, it’s possible it messed up the temperature gradients in the upper atmosphere, and we’re finally seeing its effects.

[dexterlabio]

Perhaps the La Nina being too strong can also be blamed? I've read that La Nina's do not get this strong in the summer months and it's only going to get stronger in autumn. I recall people saying that the Atlantic is at its best during weak cold ENSO events (cold neutral to weak La Nina), so this kind of strong La Nina might be a little too much?

[Kingarabian]

Only issue I see is the present PDO configuration which has atpically warm anomalies W and NW of North America.

[blp]

GFS caves to the Euro. No longer zips the second wave along. Models all over the place.

[Blown Away]

00z GFS… Starting to lose faith, GFS keeps pushing back time in developing the 2nd TW. At @180 hrs it’s @600 miles E of the 18z.

[LarryWx]

UKMET (0Z) still has no TC.

[blp]

CMC starting to bite a little. Seems most reasonable given unfavorable conditions. Anything that gets going is going to struggle until it gets further west.

[AtlanticWind]

GFS with another run with marked differences.
I really dont remember this much inconsistencies
from literally one 6 hour run to the next and just
120 to 168 hour out

[Kingarabian]

CMC showing numerous EPAC systems. If the EPAC manages to form a couple of TCs despite an unfavorable intraseasonal phase and La Nina, then it would be season cancel time for the Atlantic.