2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[weatherwindow]

Afternoon all ... experience has taught me that's when dealing with incipient monsoon trough tropical development, patience is a virtue. Seasonal lower pressures and episodic ridging over the southeast United States normally produces favorable conditions for development in the Western Caribbean. However this development tends to be slow and somewhat sporadic. Late-season development in this basin, despite a favorable SST profile, is adversely affected by the incidence of shear, competing vorticities, landlocked geography and closer proximity to the westerlies. Developments and intensification is rarely a smooth curve thus I recommend patience....Rich

[northjaxpro]

Afternoon all ... experience has taught me that's when dealing with incipient monsoon trough tropical development, patience is a virtue. Seasonal lower pressures and episodic ridging over the southeast United States normally produces favorable conditions for development in the Western Caribbean. However this development tends to be slow and somewhat sporadic. Late-season development in this basin, despite a favorable SST profile, is adversely affected by the incidence of shear, competing vorticities, landlocked geography and closer proximity to the westerlies. Developments and intensification is rarely a smooth curve thus I recommend patience....Rich

Yes indeed! A very astute post. As far as I am concerned, I hope it stays buried down there and gets sheared. We all need this to stay weak if it develops. Just my prayerful side taking over here.

[Hurricaneman]

the 18zGFS looks more organized at 174 compared to the 12z at 180

[AutoPenalti]

the 18zGFS looks more organized at 174 compared to the 12z at 180

Hmm... that's interesting.

[Hurricaneman]

the 18zGFS looks more organized at 174 compared to the 12z at 180

Hmm... that's interesting.

may not mean much, but it seems to be coming in a little in time for development which is something to watch for in future runs

[Hurricaneman]

18zGFS closes off low at 186hrs. I believe it took 210 hrs on the 12Z run

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't see anything on the 18z run GFS. I'm looking at the 500mb heights though on tropical tidbits.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=300

[Hurricaneman]

Its at the surface up to about 700 where development is up to 192, it hasnt reached the 500 yet

[floridasun78]

cmc have going into Haiti like Matthew

[floridasun78]

NAVGEM want to be like cmc too

[blp]

240hr 18z GFS is amazingly close to the Euro but much different solution to get there.

[WeatherHoon]

Couldn't keep myself away. GFS brings it over the Yucatan, and then out into the GOM. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_48.pbr

[Hurricaneman]

Couldn't keep myself away. GFS brings it over the Yucatan, and then out into the GOM. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_48.pbr

and after 384 buries itself into Mexico, very unlikely in October

[HurricaneBelle]

Couldn't keep myself away. GFS brings it over the Yucatan, and then out into the GOM. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_48.pbr

and after 384 buries itself into Mexico, very unlikely in October

Unlikely, but not unprecedented: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Roxanne

[MetroMike]

Couldn't keep myself away. GFS brings it over the Yucatan, and then out into the GOM. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_48.pbr

and after 384 buries itself into Mexico, very unlikely in October

Unlikely, but not unprecedented: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Roxanne

That link still does not work.

[gatorcane]

Yeah that track over the Yucatan into the BOC and buried in Mexico seems highly unlikely. Remember the early GFS tracks of Matthew into Mexico and Texas? In fact only one ensemble member does that with the majority of ensembles taking this into the NW Caribbean in the long-range while showing intensification:

[Hurricaneman]

Yeah that track over the Yucatan into the BOc and buried in Mexico seems highly unlikely. Remember the early GFS tracks of Matthew into Mexico and Texas? In fact only one ensemble member does that with the majority of ensembles taking this into the NW Caribbean in the long-range while strengthening the low.

and a good chunk of the ensembles go to Florida beyond that so the most likely track could be Florida, its the pattern of the recurves there this year

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM-9

[AutoPenalti]

12Z FIM-9

Is that a trough I see?

[WeatherEmperor]

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