2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[LarryWx]

It wouldn't be a late Sep-Oct Happy Hour GEFS run without significant W basin action:

[AJC3]

This post bridges the Global Models and Tropical Waves threads. Currently, there's a wave over west-central Africa that all of the global models pick up on as it exits the coast during the next 3-4 days. Between days 4 and 10 days it tracks westward through the MDR with very little fanfare. In fact, the ECMWF dampens this wave out to the point that it's no longer identifiable in about 6-7 days. However, the CMC and GFS show this wave reaching the eastern Caribbean Sea by day 10.



Looking further out well into the fantasy-land time frame, the GFS spins this wave up a tropical cyclone just south of Puerto Rico, then has it moving it WNW near the larger islands of the GA at 384hr. Sure, the extended range caveats apply, but I found it mildly interesting nonetheless. I attached a Current METEOSAT image of the wave next to the last panel of the 00Z GFS.

[SFLcane]

So this is interesting…

[kevin]

So this is interesting…

https://i.postimg.cc/MTXXg3DC/2-C30213-D-AE8-C-445-C-97-DE-C77-EBC49-FADA.jpg

Indeed interesting, let's see if the models actually develop something once we get to ~Oct15. These are the highest intensity analogs (October or later) that correlate with such a pattern.

[Category5Kaiju]

So this is interesting…

https://i.postimg.cc/MTXXg3DC/2-C30213-D-AE8-C-445-C-97-DE-C77-EBC49-FADA.jpg

Indeed interesting, let's see if the models actually develop something once we get to ~Oct15. These are the highest intensity analogs (October or later) that correlate with such a pattern.

https://i.imgur.com/OLLcqrJ.png

And many of those are extremely infamous storms

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like GEFS pushes out any development later into the forecast.

[crownweather]

So this is interesting…

https://i.postimg.cc/MTXXg3DC/2-C30213-D-AE8-C-445-C-97-DE-C77-EBC49-FADA.jpg

Just like I found this very interesting yesterday -

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1443240094111092741

[chris_fit]

06Z GEFS - Pretty Active...




00Z EPS - Coming on board...




Anyone have the Canadian Ens?

[gatorcane]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1442947100480733187?

Hi Adrian! FOUR more weeks and climo starts saying enjoy the Dry Season in S FL!

The dry season might have already started. Outside a few days next week, the GFS shows dry, continental air blanketing the Gulf and Florida for the foreseeable future. Maybe the door has already shut even for Florida, but the Caribbean could still see something.

[toad strangler]

Hi Adrian! FOUR more weeks and climo starts saying enjoy the Dry Season in S FL!

The dry season might have already started. Outside a few days next week, the GFS shows dry, continental air blanketing the Gulf and Florida for the foreseeable future. Maybe the door has already shut even for Florida, but the Caribbean could still see something.

https://i.postimg.cc/mgg8qRpz/gfs-mid-RH-watl-fh0-240.gif

Dry season has without a doubt already started. My point was that there are just four more weeks until the tropics generally are done even in SFL.

[AutoPenalti]

Hi Adrian! FOUR more weeks and climo starts saying enjoy the Dry Season in S FL!

The dry season might have already started. Outside a few days next week, the GFS shows dry, continental air blanketing the Gulf and Florida for the foreseeable future. Maybe the door has already shut even for Florida, but the Caribbean could still see something.

https://i.postimg.cc/mgg8qRpz/gfs-mid-RH-watl-fh0-240.gif

Yep, Florida all clear till next season. Season ends when the GFS shows continental dry air

Cya!

Of course, all jokes aside it's the GFS so we'll see if that holds true.

[Category5Kaiju]

The dry season might have already started. Outside a few days next week, the GFS shows dry, continental air blanketing the Gulf and Florida for the foreseeable future. Maybe the door has already shut even for Florida, but the Caribbean could still see something.

https://i.postimg.cc/mgg8qRpz/gfs-mid-RH-watl-fh0-240.gif

Yep, Florida all clear till next season. Season ends when the GFS shows continental dry air

Cya!

Of course, all jokes aside it's the GFS so we'll see if that holds true.

Also important to note that the recent GFS run is very bearish on EPAC activity too, so...hmm. Typically when EPAC activity is rumbling the Atlantic stays more quiet, but if the EPAC is quiet late season during a La Nina year, something tells me that the Atlantic would feature more substantial activity. Willing to bank on the latter.

[boca]

I’m thinking that we will be ok here in Florida with all that dry air coming down here like gatercane showed. The Bermuda high had everything in the MDR recurving and that will not change.

[chris_fit]

12z GEFS still active....

[AutoPenalti]

12z GEFS still active....

https://i.imgur.com/GEdgc2w.gif

Not really, it's actually less active than 06z.

[Spacecoast]

Checks watch: is it Happy Hour already? This is from the 12Z GEFS though:

https://i.imgur.com/eq1xpIm.png

Yesterdays?

[AutoPenalti]

Checks watch: is it Happy Hour already? This is from the 12Z GEFS though:

https://i.imgur.com/eq1xpIm.png

It's from 12z yesterday.

[LarryWx]

Checks watch: is it Happy Hour already? This is from the 12Z GEFS though:

https://i.imgur.com/eq1xpIm.png

It's from 12z yesterday.

Thanks. Sorry, my bad. But it it still pretty active:

[chris_fit]

12z GEFS still active....

https://i.imgur.com/GEdgc2w.gif

Not really, it's actually less active than 06z.

Maybe less active than the 06z, not sure, but that doesn't mean it not active... It's spitting out Tropical systems out of the NE Caribbean left and right.

[Spacecoast]

Compare last 2 GEFS....


0z ECENS:

And the usually crazy GEPS is (unusually) less active..