2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

CMC showing numerous EPAC systems. If the EPAC manages to form a couple of TCs despite an unfavorable intraseasonal phase and La Nina, then it would be season cancel time for the Atlantic.

Dang, you know this season isn't going well when some of the most experienced members here start talking about potential season cancel

[AutoPenalti]

just further shows how uncertain background conditions are right now

[NotSparta]

CMC showing numerous EPAC systems. If the EPAC manages to form a couple of TCs despite an unfavorable intraseasonal phase and La Nina, then it would be season cancel time for the Atlantic.

Dang, you know this season isn't going well when some of the most experienced members here start talking about potential season cancel

Not really unusual for that to happen lol

[skyline385]

Happy hour GFS was 6 hours ago not now...

[sma10]

GFS with another run with marked differences.
I really dont remember this much inconsistencies
from literally one 6 hour run to the next and just
120 to 168 hour out

GFS has no idea how to depict the North Central Atlantic and it is playing havoc on our two waves every run.

[sma10]

CMC showing numerous EPAC systems. If the EPAC manages to form a couple of TCs despite an unfavorable intraseasonal phase and La Nina, then it would be season cancel time for the Atlantic.

Technically true. Though not ready to go all-in on the CMC

[Kingarabian]

Lots of ACE on the 00z GFS. But it continues to delay development. Only thing that's been semi-consistent on the GFS, is the yellow circled wave which already has its own thread.

[skyline385]

Euro also showing some signal for the disturbance forming off SA into the East Caribbean

[weeniepatrol]

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/EV0d084.png

Interesting!

[aspen]

The 06z GFS doesn’t really develop the second wave because during the process where the southern vortmax rotates north and back south again inside the larger area of rotation, the entire wave just parks itself near the Cape Verde islands for a few days, then a very strong wave (also emerging quite far south) immediately starts spinning up when it splashes down on 8/29.

Both runs try to develop a system from a wave that emerges on 9/1 or 9/2. That might be something to keep an eye on if any model still likes it by the end of the week.

[Blown Away]

GFS/Euro showing the switch flipped, but the HP evaporated and everything OTS. CFS has been showing lows going N in E & Central Atlantic for months, maybe it was kinda right. Finally some action at least in the models.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the ridge completely disappeared on the GFS… interesting.

[skyline385]

Kinda interesting how we have two systems in the WPAC now as well after weeks of inactive, maybe the switch will flip this time.

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[jlauderdal]

Looks like the ridge completely disappeared on the GFS… interesting.

The GFS doesn't handle ridges very well, over-under estimates it in the tropics, and plows systems through a ridge....we need a few more days to let the models settle down but right now there is nothing definitive. The bottom line is the deep tropics just arent very conducive to what we normally see as we approach the peak, but it can flip quickly so beware. The tropics will deliver this season, patience.

[skyline385]

Pretty crazy 06Z GEFS




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[BobHarlem]

Pretty crazy 06Z GEFS

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220822/178c0f502c3c136746e98559adb750ab.jpg


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It's showing the Gulf system out of Panama on a few members, and that scary miami/mobile track on there is from the thing the icon wants to develop just east of the Caribbean islands. But there's quite a few recurves there too. That GEFS run has a lot to take in.

[SouthFLTropics]

Perhaps ICON is on to something with that spin up east of the islands. 12z GFS is showing increased vorticity in that area through 48 hours. More than previous runs.

[BobHarlem]

Perhaps ICON is on to something with that spin up east of the islands. 12z GFS is showing increased vorticity in that area through 48 hours. More than previous runs.

The 12z Icon shows it nearing hurricane strength just south of Puerto Rico in a week It did pick up on 98L before the other models did, but not too fond using the track forecasts on the icon.

[Kingarabian]

There's also another wave/disturbance to keep an eye on. It's currently near 9.5N/54.5W. ICON is developing it and showing it threatening PR. GFS also has it briefly.