2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[psyclone]

I fully expect we will have 3 or 4 simultaneous systems at some point in September and we will end up with upper teens to low 20's storm count and we'll shoot the lights out on ACE. I've long said Atlantic hurricane seasons are similar to going broke.. slowly at first then all at once. We are about to experience the "all at once" part of the season and based on the quality we've had thus far...steak and potatoes are on the menu..

[Category5Kaiju]

Kind of thought about it just for fun, but with how the tropical wx community is like these days, imagine the reactions that people would have if they were to track the 1961 season.

We can just look back to the 2022 hurricane season which was similar with a dead August and active September.

Oh yeah, when Fiona became a Cat 4 that’s when people realized that it was no 2013 repeat.

[Hurricane2022]

Kind of thought about it just for fun, but with how the tropical wx community is like these days, imagine the reactions that people would have if they were to track the 1961 season.

We can just look back to the 2022 hurricane season which was similar with a dead August and active September.

Oh yeah, when Earl became a Cat 2 that’s when people realized that it was no 2013 repeat.

Fixed it for you!!!

[Chris90]

I'm not sure why people are doubting the numbers so much, last year was fourth most active with 20/7/3 during an El Nino, and it was not at the E storm yet; the Emily-Franklin-Gert-Harold-Idalia-Jose blitz was still a few days away. This season's first true TC outbreak might have a slightly later start date than last year, but I would also expect a more active SON than last year. With that in mind, I don't think 21-26 storms are out of the question, considering last year ended with 20.

[Woofde]

Too many people are model hugging and downcasting right now (especially on twitter holy). We're on the 3rd fastest pace for activity. Ernesto STILL exists out there. We've had two hurricane CONUS impacts and a Cat 5 cruiser already. What more are you looking for? Its August, the dry air will go away soon, the record Atlantic SSTs and cooling Pacific will not.

The folks at the CPC clearly are not seeing a dead setup like many have suggested.

[Category5Kaiju]

Too many people are model hugging and downcasting right now (especially on twitter holy). We're on the 3rd fastest pace for activity. Ernesto STILL exists out there. We've had two hurricane CONUS impacts and a Cat 5 cruiser already. What more are you looking for? Its August, the dry air will go away soon, the record Atlantic SSTs and cooling Pacific will not.

The folks at the CPC clearly are not seeing a dead setup like many have suggested.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240816/6ec009f5a158649bbfb654ad2539181d.jpg

You know, for the foreseeable future at least, I might just resort to the "Beryl treatment."

"But dry air-"

"Beryl."

"Models show nothing-"

"Beryl."

"This season seems so inactive-"

"Beryl."

[Teban54]

We can just look back to the 2022 hurricane season which was similar with a dead August and active September.

Oh yeah, when Earl became a Cat 2 that’s when people realized that it was no 2013 repeat.

Fixed it for you!!!

Actually, there were plenty of season cancelers after Earl, as it was initially forecast to peak as a Cat 4 but "only" managed Cat 2 due to dry air. (At one point, it looked way worse than Ernesto ever did.)

Combine that with the fact that models showed nothing after Earl; in other words, Fiona's genesis was poorly forecast. People were seriously thinking 2022 would not produce a single major hurricane.

[skyline385]

Good plot for current climo
 https://x.com/DrKimWood/status/1824485001351795179

[dexterlabio]

I just find it interesting that people disregard ACE and bring up other metrics to describe the "quantity over quality" years, but during the real "quality" years ACE becomes relevant.

[Teban54]

I just find it interesting that people disregard ACE and bring up other metrics to describe the "quantity over quality" years, but during the real "quality" years ACE becomes relevant.

Every active and impactful season has its own reasons to qualify for that reputation, whether it's named storm count, ACE, land impacts, etc. The problem is when folks start thinking a season needs to hit all and every one of the checkmarks, or even worse, it needs to hit them early enough in the season. Expecting literally everything to be perfect is like discounting 2017 on the sole basis that it only had 17 storms, or discounting 2005 because its MDR was unable to produce anything stronger than a Cat 1.

[weeniepatrol]

I've been discussing the seasonal predictions with Klotzbach over the past couple of weeks. I was sure he'd lower his predicted numbers in his August update, but he raised them by two named storms. His argument was that the seasonal prediction parameters all point to hyperactivity. Very warm water, low shear in deep tropics, etc. However, I pointed out that the atmosphere just doesn't seem as favorable as the models are/were predicting, and that warm water alone won't generate more named storms. The waves coming off Africa are way weaker than normal, and they're struggling. There are three waves out there now, one near the Caribbean, one along 23W, and another along 43W. None of these waves looks likely to develop, though I'd keep an eye on the two eastern waves to see if they flare up in the western Caribbean in 7-10 days. Some unforeseen conditions are making the tropics less hospitable than predicted.

Respectfully, climatology tells us the Tropics are not yet supposed to be very favorable.



Give it another couple of weeks; if we enter September with absolutely nothing after Ernesto THEN we can begin discussing lowering ACE/hurricane numbers, IMO.

[MarioProtVI]

I've been discussing the seasonal predictions with Klotzbach over the past couple of weeks. I was sure he'd lower his predicted numbers in his August update, but he raised them by two named storms. His argument was that the seasonal prediction parameters all point to hyperactivity. Very warm water, low shear in deep tropics, etc. However, I pointed out that the atmosphere just doesn't seem as favorable as the models are/were predicting, and that warm water alone won't generate more named storms. The waves coming off Africa are way weaker than normal, and they're struggling. There are three waves out there now, one near the Caribbean, one along 23W, and another along 43W. None of these waves looks likely to develop, though I'd keep an eye on the two eastern waves to see if they flare up in the western Caribbean in 7-10 days. Some unforeseen conditions are making the tropics less hospitable than predicted.

This is dangerous thinking, and seems to be partially based in the fact that models have been seemingly struggling to capture genesis properly in the deep tropics this year (GFS having a habit of stringing things out too quick). While it’s true the monsoon trough is further north then normal, it is expected to sink back down to normal levels by the end of the month and the 12z EURO already seems to be picking up on that with several lows in the MDR around the 29th - which over the next week will likely wax and wane in appearance before beginning to trend upwards into stronger systems, just like Debby and Ernesto showed.

[Hammy]

Back to back model runs now, so probably not a fluke. Something we haven't seen in the models until now are lower-latitude, moisture-enveloped waves, and that's essentially why development has been limited in the long range.

[tolakram]

This is dangerous thinking, and seems to be partially based in the fact that models have been seemingly struggling to capture genesis properly in the deep tropics this year (GFS having a habit of stringing things out too quick). While it’s true the monsoon trough is further north then normal, it is expected to sink back down to normal levels by the end of the month and the 12z EURO already seems to be picking up on that with several lows in the MDR around the 29th - which over the next week will likely wax and wane in appearance before beginning to trend upwards into stronger systems, just like Debby and Ernesto showed.

Dangerous thinking! I don't think you actually meant that, I hope. Make comments on the season, the indicators, the forecasts, but not the person or the thinking please. Discussion should be fun and interesting here, not combative.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1824250819044102361

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1824817962215514334

[skyline385]

Crossed 50 ACE today from Ernesto contributing 9.35 so far, still at 3rd in HURDAT records behind 1980 and 2005 (1951 onwards)

[MarioProtVI]

This is dangerous thinking, and seems to be partially based in the fact that models have been seemingly struggling to capture genesis properly in the deep tropics this year (GFS having a habit of stringing things out too quick). While it’s true the monsoon trough is further north then normal, it is expected to sink back down to normal levels by the end of the month and the 12z EURO already seems to be picking up on that with several lows in the MDR around the 29th - which over the next week will likely wax and wane in appearance before beginning to trend upwards into stronger systems, just like Debby and Ernesto showed.

Dangerous thinking! I don't think you actually meant that, I hope. Make comments on the season, the indicators, the forecasts, but not the person or the thinking please. Discussion should be fun and interesting here, not combative.

Apologies. I don’t have any ill will at all, but my post was mainly meant to say that just because August is being kinda slow doesn’t mean that the season will underperform statistic wise. The main reason it is a bit slow is because of the northward ITCZ right now that is expected to shift back south at the end of the month (which models are beginning to agree on).

[CyclonicFury]

The only reason this season feels kind of "slow" is because so far, 2024 has not seen many short-lived, weak storms like most recent seasons have. The number of named storms is actually above average. The NATL has already crossed the 50 ACE mark!

Here's another comparison to consider: 2010 was only at 3-1-0 at this date, and didn't really get going until the last third of August. 2024 is already at 5-3-1. 1998 and 1999 both only had one tropical storm before this date, and both got to the "hyperactive" ACE category. Since it is a first-year -ENSO, I think we'll have to watch the western basin for hurricanes late in the season. Even the most active seasons often have short breaks in activity, 2020 had no hurricanes between August 4-23, 2005 also had no hurricanes early in August. The upcoming short lull is nothing too unusual, and it looks like the MDR should really get going after it ends.

[Category5Kaiju]

The only reason this season feels kind of "slow" is because so far, 2024 has not seen many short-lived, weak storms like most recent seasons have. The number of named storms is actually above average. The NATL has already crossed the 50 ACE mark!

Here's another comparison to consider: 2010 was only at 3-1-0 at this date, and didn't really get going until the last third of August. 2024 is already at 5-3-1. 1998 and 1999 both only had one tropical storm before this date, and both got to the "hyperactive" ACE category. Since it is a first-year -ENSO, I think we'll have to watch the western basin for hurricanes late in the season. Even the most active seasons often have short breaks in activity, 2020 had no hurricanes between August 4-23, 2005 also had no hurricanes early in August. The upcoming short lull is nothing too unusual, and it looks like the MDR should really get going after it ends.

It would really be something if this season manages to attain a NS count in the mid to upper-10s but also 7 major hurricanes