TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Sanibel · #1841 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 1:56 pm

I have bells that go off in my head when I see certain looks to a storm. They are ringing with this one. I'm seeing a distorted, dense CDO ring trying to bust symmetrical. This storm looks like a coiled spring to me. I could be wrong and it will only be a struggling tropical storm all the way.

If you look just to the west there's a vertical line of convection that looks like an outflow boundary. That is the synoptic barrier Irene is lifting in reaction to. I see no High filling in behind it.

I'm thinking Irene will be the last wimp in the west Atlantic. The next ones will be normal after the lull...

JamesFromMaine2 · #1842 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:04 pm

Is it possible that Irene could be doing what Emily did and killing off the extra areas around the center mass of convection to gain strength? I noticed Irene do the same thing early this morning and then now shes up to 50mph.

#1843 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:07 pm

The more I stare at the pics the more I wish we had recon. for this system today.

#1844 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:09 pm

me too...specially in a setting like this...we don't even know where the heck the LLC is...

WindRunner · #1845 Postby **WindRunner** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:09 pm

jschlitz wrote:The more I stare at the pics the more I wish we had recon. for this system today.

That would be very nice.

wxwatcher91 · #1846 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:10 pm

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Is it possible that Irene could be doing what Emily did and killing off the extra areas around the center mass of convection to gain strength? I noticed Irene do the same thing early this morning and then now shes up to 50mph.
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yeah but Irene is STILL at 50mph... latest models... no strengthening...

there is a ULL to the south that is preventing the western edge of Irene to wrap around...

Irene has a ton of convection but is just that on IR with zipo rotation as far as I can see...

once Irene can get in the clear with no ULLs or SAL she will be able to strengthen rapidly... in other words, she will never be able to strengthen rapidly :wink:

#1847 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:14 pm

well to make mention from what the nhc has been alluding too for a couple of days...is basically we really can't find a center...

JamesFromMaine2 · #1848 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:16 pm

wxwatcher91 wrote:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Is it possible that Irene could be doing what Emily did and killing off the extra areas around the center mass of convection to gain strength? I noticed Irene do the same thing early this morning and then now shes up to 50mph.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

yeah but Irene is STILL at 50mph... latest models... no strengthening...

there is a ULL to the south that is preventing the western edge of Irene to wrap around...

Irene has a ton of convection but is just that on IR with zipo rotation as far as I can see...

once Irene can get in the clear with no ULLs or SAL she will be able to strengthen rapidly... in other words, she will never be able to strengthen rapidly

5am this morning Irene was at 40mph 1007MB by 11am Irene was at 50mph and 1000MB sounds to me like shes gaining strength!

Sanibel · #1849 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:17 pm

The ULL is bigger than Irene and is mugging it...

shaggy · #1850 Postby **shaggy** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:19 pm

is it just me or do the models now show a left type bend at the end of their runs thisn afternoon? This is one weird little system and has been much more fun than ivan and the only reason he was fun was because he hit all the people I disagree with that were wanting him to hit.

NOTE the -removed- comment was from the days on TWC chat boards not Storm2k

#1851 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:20 pm

ncdowneast wrote:is it just me or do the models now show a left type bend at the end of their runs thisn afternoon? This is one weird little system and has been much more fun than ivan and the only reason he was fun was because he hit all the people I disagree with that were wanting him to hit.

NOTE the -removed- comment was from the days on TWC chat boards not Storm2k

i dont think we have anymore people I disagree with in pcola anymore, lol

#1852 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:25 pm

ivanhater wrote:
ncdowneast wrote:is it just me or do the models now show a left type bend at the end of their runs thisn afternoon? This is one weird little system and has been much more fun than ivan and the only reason he was fun was because he hit all the people I disagree with that were wanting him to hit.

NOTE the -removed- comment was from the days on TWC chat boards not Storm2k

i dont think we have anymore people I disagree with in pcola anymore, lol

thas true. you guys have had enough the past couple of years.

<RICKY>

Skyline · #1853 Postby **Skyline** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:25 pm

Amen to that ivanhater.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #1854 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:26 pm

You guys are lucky the thing weaken from its 160+ mph. I don't think there would be a citie there today if it had not.

#1855 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:27 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:You guys are lucky the thing weaken from its 160+ mph. I don't think there would be a citie there today if it had not.

thats true...but its hard to think it could of been any worse

sma10 · #1856 Postby **sma10** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:28 pm

ivanhater wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:You guys are lucky the thing weaken from its 160+ mph. I don't think there would be a citie there today if it had not.

thats true...but its hard to think it could of been any worse

Oh yes.....It could have been worse.

#1857 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:30 pm

sma10 wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:You guys are lucky the thing weaken from its 160+ mph. I don't think there would be a citie there today if it had not.

thats true...but its hard to think it could of been any worse

Oh yes.....It could have been worse.

ya, after what it did and how much destruction....i dont want to think about anything worse

#1858 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:32 pm

yes, i see the westward bend at the end

#1859 Postby **ALhurricane** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:33 pm

I posted this another thread, but seems to have been ignored, so I will try here since I think it is a valuable little piece of info.

When I got into work I was able to look at all the ship reports. At 18z there were two ships (one at 23.1/64.3 and the other at 22.5/64.8). Both reported a WSW to SW wind. The southern ship also reported a 10kt SW wind at 19z. So we clearly have a low level circulation out there...probably pretty close to where NHC has it. I wish I had a link or something to show, but I don't.

BTW, if the moderators don't want this on both posts, please remove it from the other post. Thanks

#1860 Postby **deltadog03** » Thu Aug 11, 2005 2:35 pm

thanks al...i really wish we had something concrete though...too much guess work...recon will be very helpful

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