2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

There's also another wave/disturbance to keep an eye on. It's currently near 9.5N/54.5W. ICON is developing it and showing it threatening PR. GFS also has it briefly.

That ICON run is very similar to a couple of the 06Z GEFS ensemble members which had a system crossing near the keys into the Gulf.

Also Papin commented that the cold surge from SA which is causing a CCKW to spin up the vorticity isn’t modelled accurately on the GFS in particular so it could not be capturing it correctly.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561514082666041344





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[aspen]

12z GFS doesn’t develop that second system because it has a multi-wave pile up around the Cape Verde islands and can’t figure out which wave is gonna become anything.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS drops the wave because of a traffic jam, nice.

[skyline385]

I hope I’m 100% wrong but I’m afraid some of
us will look back on these posts complaining about
the lack of activity and wish we hadn’t complained.
It’s coming sooner than later.

I have to concur here; something definitely feels off, but at the same time, I simply cannot wrap my head around what the actual chances are that this season ends up, for instance, not delivering hurricanes or named storms for that matter. What we do know for certain is that the MDR is warm, there is a La Nina, UOHC levels in the western part of the basin are sky high, and wind shear is not naggingly bad. From what I can logically assume, something's gotta give or form eventually. Trackers depend on climatology and the ASO peak month warnings exist for a reason

This season may possibly under perform for reasons we don’t know yet but there is no way that we end without a hurricane on the list. Even 2013 didn’t bust that hard and there was a legit reason for its bust then. I am still expecting that we end up around 140 ACE.


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[skyline385]

As i typed my post above, GFS pushed back the TCG of the second wave again lol.




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[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1561749157316071429

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET is still another run with no TC. But keep in mind that it is often conservative and thus often misses genesis similar to the Euro.

[skyline385]

The VP plot shows the perfect setup right now, very intriguing how this is still not enough.




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[Category5Kaiju]

The VP plot shows the perfect setup right now, very intriguing how this is still not enough.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220822/d778f14db53de63502c6f3b846484538.jpg


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If I am not mistaken, the MJO has just left the null phase and is entering the 1/2 zone; I wonder if there's some sort of delay that may occur here. Also I think that all of that activity the EPAC had so far may have had some lingering negative effects on the Atlantic, so my guess is we might see the consequences of this VP setup later this week going into next and that it's not just an automatic, occurs-over-a-span-of-one-day thing

[aspen]

As i typed my post above, GFS pushed back the TCG of the second wave again lol.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220822/83bf7f9828b146546ce71df8784bf731.jpg


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That’s actually a merger of two waves after the second wave, whose vorticity can be faintly seen at 40W @186hrs. The monsoon trough is so active and full of waves that nothing can really become dominant for a while.

[skyline385]

As i typed my post above, GFS pushed back the TCG of the second wave again lol.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220822/83bf7f9828b146546ce71df8784bf731.jpg


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That’s actually a merger of two waves after the second wave, whose vorticity can be faintly seen at 40W @186hrs. The monsoon trough is so active and full of waves that nothing can really become dominant for a while.

That sounds like the same problem we had in 2020.


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[aspen]

It would be quite something if the ICON is right about that ECar system in a few days and no other model catches on. I can’t help but find some similarities between the ICON’s system and a certain D storm from a few years ago. Similar time frame, similar track despite different origins.

[AJC3]

Let's stay on topic, folks. Seasonal discussions have their own thread.

[skyline385]

Euro not showing much development of the first wave now. Showing a circulation leaving Africa but that’s the third wave now?




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[Blown Away]

Euro not showing much development of the first wave now. Showing a circulation leaving Africa but that’s the third wave now?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220822/c3a5c71c42a6806f252134e4b4a5c508.jpg

12z Euro running now at @96 hrs, I think the real deepening begins @144 hrs.

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[wxman57]

There's also another wave/disturbance to keep an eye on. It's currently near 9.5N/54.5W. ICON is developing it and showing it threatening PR. GFS also has it briefly.

https://i.imgur.com/PiMiOlG.png

That ICON run is very similar to a couple of the 06Z GEFS ensemble members which had a system crossing near the keys into the Gulf.

Also Papin commented that the cold surge from SA which is causing a CCKW to spin up the vorticity isn’t modeled accurately on the GFS in particular so it could not be capturing it correctly.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561514082666041344

The 12Z ICON appears to be developing something that moves northward off the coast of Suriname tonight, not any wave to the east.

[BobHarlem]

Euro not showing much development of the first wave now. Showing a circulation leaving Africa but that’s the third wave now?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220822/c3a5c71c42a6806f252134e4b4a5c508.jpg

12z Euro running now at @96 hrs, I think the real deepening begins @144 hrs.

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Last frame of euro is here, doesn't really deepen the waves, the deep one on here far east is the 3rd wave, (1st being 90L, 2nd being the one near africa, 3rd being behind that) EC Fast is the "old" Euro that only had 24 hour increments, its quicker to show up complete on tidbits for the impatient.

[LarryWx]

There's also another wave/disturbance to keep an eye on. It's currently near 9.5N/54.5W. ICON is developing it and showing it threatening PR. GFS also has it briefly.

https://i.imgur.com/PiMiOlG.png

That ICON run is very similar to a couple of the 06Z GEFS ensemble members which had a system crossing near the keys into the Gulf.

Also Papin commented that the cold surge from SA which is causing a CCKW to spin up the vorticity isn’t modeled accurately on the GFS in particular so it could not be capturing it correctly.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561514082666041344

The 12Z ICON appears to be developing something that moves northward off the coast of Suriname tonight, not any wave to the east.

1. Looking back at archives, I couldn't find even one analog of a TS+ originating from a disturbance coming from anywhere near Suriname. I had already checked this a few days ago when a GEFS run was doing something similar with a good number of members.

2. 12Z JMA has a surface low near the CVs at 192 hours fwiw.

[skyline385]

There's also another wave/disturbance to keep an eye on. It's currently near 9.5N/54.5W. ICON is developing it and showing it threatening PR. GFS also has it briefly.

https://i.imgur.com/PiMiOlG.png

That ICON run is very similar to a couple of the 06Z GEFS ensemble members which had a system crossing near the keys into the Gulf.

Also Papin commented that the cold surge from SA which is causing a CCKW to spin up the vorticity isn’t modeled accurately on the GFS in particular so it could not be capturing it correctly.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561514082666041344

The 12Z ICON appears to be developing something that moves northward off the coast of Suriname tonight, not any wave to the east.

Yea that’s why i posted the Papin tweet. He says it’s forming as a result of the cold surge through SA resulting in a CCKW.


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[aspen]

HWRF-P for 90L has the ICON's ECar storm. Just a weak low on this run, but it's still something worth noting.