2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[gatorcane]

12z GFS shows once again a heckuva cold front sweeping all the way through South Florida on the 22nd of the month. I'm praying this comes to past and we can truly get a taste of Fall down here.

Yeah a South Florida hurricane season ending front if that verifies

Sounds good to me! But something tells me that may be too good to be true! When is the last time a strong cold front made it all the way thru the peninsula in October?

Nope too good to be true as the ECMWF shoots it down:

[jlauderdal]

Yeah a South Florida hurricane season ending front if that verifies

Sounds good to me! But something tells me that may be too good to be true! When is the last time a strong cold front made it all the way thru the peninsula in October?

Nope too good to be true as the ECMWF shoots it down:

that is the most threatening florida track i have seen so far

[DESTRUCTION5]

Sounds good to me! But something tells me that may be too good to be true! When is the last time a strong cold front made it all the way thru the peninsula in October?

Nope too good to be true as the ECMWF shoots it down:

that is the most threatening florida track i have seen so far

Not quite sure its tropical?

[northjaxpro]

I am withmost of you in that it would be real nice to get a Fall front to come down through the peninsula and help put and end to the tropical season.

But, it may still be a bit premature to have that scenario happen just yet. May not happen until after Nov 1.

[gatorcane]

What is that?

[SouthFLTropics]

What is that?

That looks to me to be a sheared, possibly sub tropical system riding NNE to NE along that front across Florida. Still looks like the front makes its way across the peninsula in the same general time frame as what the GFS has. I'm thinking (hoping) that the front is a reality.

[SouthFLTropics]

WOW, hour 216...Talk about a storm system for the Southeast US. That front packs a punch.

[gatorcane]

WOW, hour 216...Talk about a storm system for the Southeast US. That front packs a punch.

Looks like the subtropical storm in the Eastern Gulf merges with a mid-level cut-off low over the SE United States and BOOM. Talk about a complex interaction!

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF loop showing the complex setup...

[SouthFLTropics]

WOW, hour 216...Talk about a storm system for the Southeast US. That front packs a punch.

Looks like the subtropical storm in the Eastern Gulf merges with a mid-level cut-off low over the SE United States and BOOM. Talk about a complex interaction!

If that were to come to fruition I would think that it would unfortunately pump a lot of tropical moisture up the Eastern Seaboard and across the already saturated portions of the Carolinas.

[otowntiger]

What is that?

Doesn't look too threatening to me, whatever it is.

[WeatherHoon]

Really curious to hear some opinions from the pro-mets right now. My personal unscientific thought at this time is I don't think we're really going to see anything next week. Seems even less likely that a Wilma 2 appears like many people in here thought would materialize.

[jlauderdal]

What is that?

double barrel low

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/786665942415708160

[OntarioEggplant]

End game storm? Really?

[cycloneye]

Hurricaneman, your thread was locked as the staff discusses if it goes ahead or has to wait a bit longer to be up.

[Hurricaneman]

No problem, may have been a bit premature

The Euro doesn't looks like a cut and dry case as if its stronger than the low over the continent it would probably simply get sheared out in Florida but the GFS pretty much does nothing with it shearing the MLC away from the surface circulation while its ensembles do have some development so the GFS disagrees with its ensembles so does the euro ensembles with its OP run

[blp]

I can't figure out the origin of development on this run. Looks like it starts with the low in the Bahamas and then splits back toward the west. I think that is what is showed yesterday's 12z run but very different than last nights 00z run. The Euro is going through massive swings from run to run. This all looks unusual.

[Hurricaneman]

I can't figure out the origin of development on this run. Looks like it starts with the low in the Bahamas and then splits back toward the west. I think that is what is showed yesterday's 12z run but very different than last nights 00z run. The Euro is going through massive swings from run to run. This all looks unusual.

It looks like the formative stages of this may be between Jamaica and Panama, we just have to wait and see what happens, the one thing I've learned about these systems is that they can become quite powerful with the right environment so its just wait and see, we have the 18zGFS coming out in a half hour

[SFLcane]

Rainy weak non tropical low for Florida on that euro.