2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

Well the 00Z UKMET has some strange track. Talk about a strong ridge for this time of year (or anytime of year for that matter!)

[Blown Away]

Well the 00Z UKMET has some strange track. Talk about a strong ridge for this time of year (or anytime of year for that matter!)

What is the green line diving SW into Caribbean from?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has nothing but a strong 500MB ridge parked over the Central/Eastern US for basically the entire 384 hour run with zero significant cold fronts. Wow no signs of a fall pattern at all anytime soon. Of course long-range subject to change.

[SFLcane]

With a la nina thats rather normal id be a rarity to get a solid cold front down the Florida peninsula. Some cool shots. Not much to see in terms of tropical development on the GFS

[otowntiger]

12Z GFS has nothing but a strong 500MB ridge parked over the Central/Eastern US for basically the entire 384 hour run with zero significant cold fronts. Wow no signs of a fall pattern at all anytime soon. Of course long-range subject to change.

That's not cool. (literally and figuratively, lol!) It would be nice to be getting some cooler fallish weather sometime soon! On a positive note for Florida, at least that would limit the late season threat of Western Caribbean storms hitting from the SW. But on the other hand I guess the pattern could still steer storms toward us from the east, correct? Unless that high is so strong it keeps them well to our south and west, as apparently the case with Nate currently.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z GFS still shows the system...but this time it develops in the EPAC and has a lot of land interaction with Central America as it appears to attempt a cross over into the WC whereas before the system was more over water in the WC






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[Patrick99]

12Z GFS has nothing but a strong 500MB ridge parked over the Central/Eastern US for basically the entire 384 hour run with zero significant cold fronts. Wow no signs of a fall pattern at all anytime soon. Of course long-range subject to change.

That's not cool. (literally and figuratively, lol!) It would be nice to be getting some cooler fallish weather sometime soon! On a positive note for Florida, at least that would limit the late season threat of Western Caribbean storms hitting from the SW. But on the other hand I guess the pattern could still steer storms toward us from the east, correct? Unless that high is so strong it keeps them well to our south and west, as apparently the case with Nate currently.

We could still be hit from the east. I forget which years they were, exactly, but I remember seeing a few historical track maps with hurricane hits on Florida from the east in October. It's not incredibly common, but I do not believe it's unprecedented. If I recall, it's never really a long-tracking Cape Verde situation, it's more of a closer-in development type of thing.

[gatorcane]

There is not even a hint of a cool front at all through 384 hours through the SE US on the 12Z GFS. 12Z GEFS shows sharp lowering of pressures in the Western Caribbean at the end of the run with individual ensembles lifting the area slowly north which is favored by climatology. I am pretty confident we get another named storm in the Western Caribbean in a couple of weeks time this, could be "Ophelia."

[gatorcane]

Nothing but high pressure over the Eastern 2/3 of the US on the Euro for the next 240 hours (outside a brief shortwave trough passing through in a few days), so similar to the GFS.

So that means no major fronts into the Gulf or Caribbean to help cool the waters (or bring relief from the heat and humidity in Florida) anytime soon.

The pattern looks very much like July to be honest.

[AutoPenalti]

Nothing but high pressure over the Eastern 2/3 of the US on the Euro for the next 240 hours (outside a brief shortwave trough passing through in a few days), so similar to the GFS.

So that means no major fronts into the Gulf or Caribbean to help cool the waters (or bring relief from the heat and humidity in Florida) anytime soon.

The pattern looks very much like July to be honest.

I guess it isn’t all too bad, keeps any WCAB from forming and hitting Florida from the west.

And it’s not climo favorable for anything to form from the east...

[toad strangler]

18z GFS is completely on board like the Euro with gobs of high pressure blanketing the southern tier of US all the way into the Caribbean through 10 days. It's quite conceivable that this will finish off major threats to the US.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensembles are the most bullish yet:

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z GFS ensembles are the most bullish yet:

[img]https://s1.postimg.org/1nmtogov73/gfs-eme]

gator,

It looks like the 18z GFS is finally showing signs of climatology as we can see the so called season ending cold front sweeping through the eastern US. That kind of pattern should pickup anything in the Caribbean and send it NE towards Cuba or South Florida.







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[otowntiger]

There is not even a hint of a cool front at all through 384 hours through the SE US on the 12Z GFS. 12Z GEFS shows sharp lowering of pressures in the Western Caribbean at the end of the run with individual ensembles lifting the area slowly north which is favored by climatology. I am pretty confident we get another named storm in the Western Caribbean in a couple of weeks time this, could be "Ophelia."

. And that synoptic set up would have whatever formed in this spot getting buried in Central America.

[TheStormExpert]

18Z GFS ensembles are the most bullish yet:

[img]https://s1.postimg.org/1nmtogov73/gfs-eme]

gator,

It looks like the 18z GFS is finally showing signs of climatology as we can see the so called season ending cold front sweeping through the eastern US. That kind of pattern should pickup anything in the Caribbean and send it NE towards Cuba or South Florida.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201710 ... a7345b.png

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201710 ... 6ff808.png



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Wouldn't say season over but most certainly shuts the Gulf down likely for good and limits any development for the rest of the season to the Western Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS ensembles are the most bullish yet:

[img]https://s1.postimg.org/1nmtogov73/gfs-eme]

gator,

It looks like the 18z GFS is finally showing signs of climatology as we can see the so called season ending cold front sweeping through the eastern US. That kind of pattern should pickup anything in the Caribbean and send it NE towards Cuba or South Florida.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201710 ... a7345b.png

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201710 ... 6ff808.png



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By mid to late October the fronts should start getting stronger. If we do end up with another storm in the Western Caribbean as the GFS suggests in this timeframe and as I think will happen, chances are it moves north then NE putting peninsula Florida risk. Considering Nate will be out of the picture in just 3-4 days from now, that gives plenty of time for the Western Caribbean to produce another one this month which climatologically is the most active for South Florida hits than any other month especially when looking at non-Niño years.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 18z GFS Ensembles long range FYI




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[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I agree Gatorcane.

Yup the GEFS signals are getting very strong for a NW Caribbean System. South Florida and the FL peninsula should certainly watch. This is the most dangerous time of year. With heat content as high as it as and shear lowering and favorable mjo and us nearing La Niña just like during Wilma and Mitch, I think we get a Major hurricane that forms in the NW Caribbean goes up near the Yucatan and then swings NE towards S FL.

[SFLcane]

Another Caribbean tc is certainly possible but these are 300+hr model runs

We shall see anything is possible this season

[DESTRUCTION5]

00z EURO rides a reflection that looks to close off near the Bahamas then opens back up before it comes into FL. Something to keep eye on.