2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[toad strangler]

The 18zGFS fv3 shows a system forming from the monsoon trough at 252hrs and becoming a hurricane and is north of the Yucatan as a cat 2 hurricane while the operational does nothing

They keep flip flopping. Can we please get another semi respected model that goes post 240? lol

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS fv3 shows a system forming from the monsoon trough at 252hrs and becoming a hurricane and is north of the Yucatan as a cat 2 hurricane while the operational does nothing

They keep flip flopping. Can we please get another semi respected model that goes post 240? lol

The thing is we have to wait until the weekend before we know if even something is going to form from the monsoon trough

[djones65]

I am just so completely stunned and appalled by the "expectations" people have on computer model simulations!!!
Do you not realize how amazing it is that we even have the current technology that we do, and how useful and successful it is in assisting forecasts? Thereby helping us mitigate loss of life!!! Yet we always want more... I am amazed at what we have done in numerical weather predictions!!! And to bash ANY model for not producing a perfect outcome or not fitting in with what we believe it should makes absolutely NO SENSE!

We should be grateful for the technology and the capabilities that currently exist. And as I have stated previously... computer models are just that... simulations...and they need to be utilized as they are intended... as a tool to assist the forecasts... not to replace them...

[SFLcane]

The end is near....nothing of any significance on the models this afternoon.

[Hammy]

The end is near....nothing of any significance on the models this afternoon.

Euro starting to show the lifting north of the monsoon trough in the Caribbean at the end of the run. I said a week or so ago, the GFS can do very well with depicting pattern changes, but just moves them along too quickly. Long range models were indicating the sudden bursting of activity around August 20-22 (before backing off altogether), instead it happened in early September; it likewise showed the Caribbean coming to life around the start of October, so around the 10th or so seems like a reasonable time frame.

[LarryWx]

The end is near....nothing of any significance on the models this afternoon.

With the main exception being the GEPS once more. It has a bunch of Hs in the Gulf and off the SE coast 10/1-12 with no fewer than 7 H hits on FL from the ~21 members. Other members hit all of the other states stretching from TX to NC with an H. The vast majority of these are directly from Kirk or his remnants but a few TCs are from a new NW Caribbean TC that forms 10/9 and comes north.

However, the more reliable GEFS and earlier EPS runs have had very little from Kirk. So, I'm assuming the GEPS runs continue to be off.

[CyclonicFury]

The end is near....nothing of any significance on the models this afternoon.

It's September 26 not November 26. We still have all of October and November to go, so a bit soon to say the end is near.

[SFLcane]

The end is near....nothing of any significance on the models this afternoon.

It's September 26 not November 26. We still have all of October and November to go, so a bit soon to say the end is near.

Yep its september 26 alright but those westerlies will soon begin dropping far south and put a lid on any potential threat to the conus. The caribbean as a whole has been extremely hostile just about all season long and nothing shows that changing. Besides your regular 200+ hr ghost from the GFS or even the european there just isnt much to see. Now the sub tropics on the other hand

[Emmett_Brown]

Models have been hinting at a gyre developing in the NW Caribbean, but nothing consistent. I think October could be busy there, just a hunch. Usually pressures lower there after the first couple of fronts make it down to the GOM. There is a secondary seasonal peak in October for this area, and it has been a while since we have had a big storm down there. Wouldn't surprise me to see one this year.

[tolakram]

I expect something during the October mini peak, and I think Florida always has to watch out for an October hit, but it appears the slow to normal season has returned.

[cycloneye]

This is great news.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1045297168624611328

[mlfreeman]

This is great news.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1045297168624611328

A lower tweet in the thread says the data will be an expensive addon so it's doubtful Tropical Tidbits will be upgrading.
Hopefully someone will offer it up to us mere peons to see though.

[gatorcane]

The Euro and its ensembles are showing lowering pressures across the Western Caribbean late next week into next weekend:

[CourierPR]

[quote="gatorcane"]The Euro and its ensembles are showing lowering pressures across the Western Caribbean late next week into next weekend:

I think we may see development down there as has been progged by long range models.

[SFLcane]

Another look at some ECM ensembles..

[TheStormExpert]

Euro hasn't been too enthusiastic with developing much in the Western Caribbean. Likely due to the large sprawling size of this monsoon-gyre system it will be slow to develop if at all. Even those Euro ensembles above only show pressures maxing down to 980-999mbs.

[Emmett_Brown]

Yep, and it looks like Kirk's remains get pulled into the developing gyre, arcing around the top of it and being absorbed. Last few runs of the FV3 show the idea of a weak gyre spinning off a low that races N/NE through the Bahamas.

[Kazmit]

GFS has been showing a TS moving through the greater Antilles and into Bermuda the last couple of runs.

[TheStormExpert]

How todays 12z Euro ends with a 1007mb broad low sitting and slowly deepening between Cuba and Jamaica.

[Hurricaneman]

How todays 12z Euro ends with a 1007mb broad low sitting and slowly deepening between Cuba and Jamaica.

https://i.imgur.com/2omJfOX.png

That setup on the Euro would have the same results as the GFS but the GFS is faster with ejecting the Caribbean feature than the Euro by like 2 to 3 days