2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[tolakram]

https://i.postimg.cc/T1JMK7JP/ace.webp

What is their source, do you know?

[skyline385]

Anyone here knows if there is any correlation between the extreme heat wave in the Europe this year and tropical activity? UK in particular is just completely wrecking records and I would be interested in seeing if there is any connection to it.

[weeniepatrol]

Anyone here knows if there is any correlation between the extreme heat wave in the Europe this year and tropical activity? UK in particular is just completely wrecking records and I would be interested in seeing if there is any connection to it.

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/T1JMK7JP/ace.webp

What is their source, do you know?

Oh sure, this is Dr. Ryan Truchelut he is great he put together a seasonal model which updates about every week. Its been holding into the 160's for a few weeks now.

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... ricane?s=w

[LarryWx]

Anyone here knows if there is any correlation between the extreme heat wave in the Europe this year and tropical activity? UK in particular is just completely wrecking records and I would be interested in seeing if there is any connection to it.

This is, indeed, absolutely insane heat! The all time W. Europe records now being broken or at least threatened were last set on these dates:

7/21/2021, 7/25/2019, 6/25/2019, 7/13/2017, 8/7/2015, 7/5/2015, 8/10/2012, 7/16/2005, 9/8/2003, 8/12/2003, 8/2/1990

So, one could look at 2021, 2019, 2017, 2015, 2012, 2005, 2003, and 1990 to see if there's a pattern.

Together with this heatwave, the Mediterranean, Bay of Biscay, and English Channel, among other waters, are significantly warmer than normal. Also, note that 5 of the last 8 summers have had record heat. So, obviously AGW is playing a significant part in all of this (several degrees in all likelihood).

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1549467894614040576

[Emmett_Brown]

https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1549467894614040576?s=20&t=ymYYfqwPxSdRpY7hiFSyTw

The real difference between these shear maps has more to do with comparing June-July shear with Aug-Oct shear.

[SFLcane]

Not much deep into the caribbean despite all the hoopla from the ukmet and ecmwf.

My point is who knows

[weeniepatrol]

Just for fun, I plotted some Jun to Jul SSTas. Do modest ssts preclude an active hurricane season?

Not a chance.

1999 (176 ACE)



2000 (119 ACE)



2001(110 ACE)



2004 (226 ACE)



2018 (132 ACE)



2019 (132 ACE)



Last year... (145 ACE)



And of course, 2022 YTD:

[SFLcane]

Look who is waking up...

[Category5Kaiju]

Look who is waking up...

https://i.postimg.cc/Rhn56dGn/ED1vmWoO.png

When it’s the GFS, we shrug. But when it’s the Euro…we scream

Jk, but makes sense given the favorable CCKW should pass by then

[skyline385]

Look who is waking up...

https://i.postimg.cc/Rhn56dGn/ED1vmWoO.png

When it’s the GFS, we shrug. But when it’s the Euro…we scream

Jk, but makes sense given the favorable CCKW should pass by then

Yea it was on the weekly yesterday too

[skyline385]

Hmm missed this one because was focusing on long-range, this is probably also what the GFS has been hinting at. Maybe could see something weak spin up?

https://i.imgur.com/pSItMwX.png

Slightly more GEFS support for end of July coinciding with the rising cell over NATL, there is a small chance here

Correction, looks like a moderate chance now

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1549491984800391168

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1549491984800391168?s=20&t=ymYYfqwPxSdRpY7hiFSyTw

More from Moore.

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1549499313293762562

[skyline385]

Anyone here knows if there is any correlation between the extreme heat wave in the Europe this year and tropical activity? UK in particular is just completely wrecking records and I would be interested in seeing if there is any connection to it.

This is, indeed, absolutely insane heat! The all time W. Europe records now being broken or at least threatened were last set on these dates:

7/21/2021, 7/25/2019, 6/25/2019, 7/13/2017, 8/7/2015, 7/5/2015, 8/10/2012, 7/16/2005, 9/8/2003, 8/12/2003, 2/8/1990

So, one could look at 2021, 2019, 2017, 2015, 2012, 2005, 2003, and 1990 to see if there's a pattern.

Together with this heatwave, the Mediterranean, Bay of Biscay, and English Channel, among other waters, are significantly warmer than normal. Also, note that 5 of the last 8 summers have had record heat. So, obviously AGW is playing a significant part in all of this (several degrees in all likelihood).

It is indeed pretty insane

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1549527075580698626

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1549529810849828864

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1549529810849828864

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1549530441249865728

[Deshaunrob17]

Anyone here knows if there is any correlation between the extreme heat wave in the Europe this year and tropical activity? UK in particular is just completely wrecking records and I would be interested in seeing if there is any connection to it.

Wasn’t there a deadly European Heatwave in 2003?