2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Jr0d]

Those of you thinking that something will develop by Friday or Saturday, I'd gladly bet a $50 contribution to S2K that NO Caribbean development (named T.S.) will occur prior to 0Z Sept. 25

Does the bet still stand if it gets classified in the Carib, but gets named in the GoM?

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1835805376916197765

[Category5Kaiju]

Interestingly enough, on the most recent GFS, at around the same time the WCAR/Gulf storm that has been the recent buzz topic is in its early stages of development, there seems to be a tropical storm that forms near Cape Verde. Kind of dissipates after several days, but this kind of general setup seems eerily similar to one that happened two years ago.

[ronjon]

Look out GOM in 7 to 10 days...18z GFS joins CMC with hurricane moving north out of the western Caribbean into the SE GOM.

[Teban54]

Interestingly enough, on the most recent GFS, at around the same time the WCAR/Gulf storm that has been the recent buzz topic is in its early stages of development, there seems to be a tropical storm that forms near Cape Verde. Kind of dissipates after several days, but this kind of general setup seems eerily similar to one that happened two years ago.

Even better, both would be the H and I storms.

[Kazmit]

Oh boy, a stalled MH in the gulf.

[Kazmit]

The happy hour GFS says whatever conditions were present for Beryl will return in full force to blow up another cat 5 in the GOM. Two weeks out so take with a grain of salt.

[WaveBreaking]

Definitely a hall of fame Happy Hour GFS run

[Teban54]

The happy hour GFS says whatever conditions were present for Beryl will return in full force to blow up another cat 5 in the GOM. Two weeks out so take with a grain of salt.

Or, in other words, a repeat of September 2005 minus the spamfest

[Category5Kaiju]

Happy Hour GFS going full on Ivan/Michael mode

[Ivanhater]

[mantis83]

cmc was the first to sniff this out, now the gfs. if euro gets on board......

:eek:

[TomballEd]

Oh boy, a stalled MH in the gulf.

https://i.ibb.co/MDXWnSB/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-51.png

At 300 hours the GFS is kinda pointless, whatever very small initialization errors have grown to be big by then. It is more of a sign of what is possible, not what will happen. But it could happen. Ensembles are generally on board.

[jhpigott]

Oh boy, a stalled MH in the gulf.

https://i.ibb.co/MDXWnSB/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-51.png

At 300 hours the GFS is kinda pointless, whatever very small initialization errors have grown to be big by then. It is more of a sign of what is possible, not what will happen. But it could happen. Ensembles are generally on board.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1396/8sv1JV.gif

Been lurking all season, but this one has my attention here in SEFL. Agreed that fantasy land GFS end results are of little value at this point. However, there seems to be pretty broad model consensus for storm genesis in the W. Caribbean sometime between late this weekend early next week on the GFS, CMC (+both of their ensembles) and Euro AI.

[SFLcane]

[TomballEd]

Oh boy, a stalled MH in the gulf.

https://i.ibb.co/MDXWnSB/gfs-mslp-pcpn-seus-51.png

At 300 hours the GFS is kinda pointless, whatever very small initialization errors have grown to be big by then. It is more of a sign of what is possible, not what will happen. But it could happen. Ensembles are generally on board.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1396/8sv1JV.gif

Been lurking all season, but this one has my attention here in SEFL. Agreed that fantasy land GFS end results are of little value at this point. However, there seems to be pretty broad model consensus for storm genesis in the W. Caribbean sometime between late this weekend early next week on the GFS, CMC (+both of their ensembles) and Euro AI.

Euro ensembles getting on board as well.

[wxman57]

I'm just hoping the models are wrong about the weekend after next. Meanwhile, I'll take a couple of my 5 comp days this Thu/Fri and have a 4-day weekend.

[SFLcane]

[cheezyWXguy]

Happy Hour GFS going full on Ivan/Michael mode

If anything, it reminds me of how it incorrectly handled Ian, sending it west toward the panhandle and meandering. I would imagine that if something does get going in the western Caribbean, a front strong enough to pull it north from there would send it further east into the peninsula this time of year. “If” is doing some heavy lifting here though.

[LAF92]

https://i.postimg.cc/k5VywccL/IMG-9416.png

I’m still learning alot of things weather wise. What does this map depict?