2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yes there was. That was the year the queen of hurricanes formed; Isabel.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1549713476859281408

[SFLcane]

ouch this is ugly... watch loop

[captainbarbossa19]

ouch this is ugly... watch loop

https://i.postimg.cc/j5xPD6WX/gfs-mid-RH-eatl-fh-24-294.gif

Definitely wouldn't be unusual to see this in late July/early August. Right before Irma formed, there was a massive SAL outbreak which was around August 20th.

[SFLcane]

ouch this is ugly... watch loop

https://i.postimg.cc/j5xPD6WX/gfs-mid-RH-eatl-fh-24-294.gif

Definitely wouldn't be unusual to see this in late July/early August. Right before Irma formed, there was a massive SAL outbreak which was around August 20th.

Not sal this is Mid-level dry air near the Azores being shunt into the mdr its enhanced by the cool SST.

[captainbarbossa19]

ouch this is ugly... watch loop

https://i.postimg.cc/j5xPD6WX/gfs-mid-RH-eatl-fh-24-294.gif

Definitely wouldn't be unusual to see this in late July/early August. Right before Irma formed, there was a massive SAL outbreak which was around August 20th.

Not sal this is Mid-level dry air near the Azores being shunt into the mdr its enhanced by the cool SST.

That is not unusual for the time of year either. If it's September 1 and this is happening, then that would be strange.

[SFLcane]

Definitely wouldn't be unusual to see this in late July/early August. Right before Irma formed, there was a massive SAL outbreak which was around August 20th.

Not sal this is Mid-level dry air near the Azores being shunt into the mdr its enhanced by the cool SST.

That is not unusual for the time of year either. If it's September 1 and this is happening, then that would be strange.

A dry air analog for you.

[Category5Kaiju]

Not sal this is Mid-level dry air near the Azores being shunt into the mdr its enhanced by the cool SST.

That is not unusual for the time of year either. If it's September 1 and this is happening, then that would be strange.

A dry air analog for you.


https://i.postimg.cc/PrqGWNvr/air1.png

https://i.postimg.cc/sDLL5mRw/air2.png

Haha, jeez, there’s literally zero similarity between those two years as you can see here

[SFLcane]

The atlantic should up mid aug as it normally does every year but i certainly would not expect anything formidable till 1-2 week of august.

[captainbarbossa19]

The atlantic should up mid aug as it normally does every year but i certainly would not expect anything formidable till 1-2 week of august.

I completely agree. I am still thinking August 10-20 is when see a pickup of activity. I would say August 20-31 we will see our first major.

[skyline385]

ouch this is ugly... watch loop

https://i.postimg.cc/j5xPD6WX/gfs-mid-RH-eatl-fh-24-294.gif

Definitely wouldn't be unusual to see this in late July/early August. Right before Irma formed, there was a massive SAL outbreak which was around August 20th.

Not sal this is Mid-level dry air near the Azores being shunt into the mdr its enhanced by the cool SST.

This is correct, i checked the NASA DUST run and there isn’t much SAL at all, this is all coming from the Azores high.

[zal0phus]

Seeing all this I still feel as if this year will be 2017-lite.
Remember how quiet 2017 was up until Harvey in mid-August?

[InfernoFlameCat]

This year hasn’t been quiet. It’s just the last 2 we’re so active. I mean we potentially have had 4 tropical cyclones already. 3 at the least. Anyhow, the point to make here is that I think we are gonna see some blockbuster storms that come through. The amount of instability available will be higher than in previous years because of the cool subtropics. 2003 esque or 1988. Maybe see a Gilbert or Hugo like storm.

[SFLcane]

Seeing all this I still feel as if this year will be 2017-lite.
Remember how quiet 2017 was up until Harvey in mid-August?

Not this quiet lol. Franklin, Gert, etc

[LarryWx]

This year hasn’t been quiet. It’s just the last 2 we’re so active. I mean we potentially have had 4 tropical cyclones already. 3 at the least. Anyhow, the point to make here is that I think we are gonna see some blockbuster storms that come through. The amount of instability available will be higher than in previous years because of the cool subtropics. 2003 esque or 1988. Maybe see a Gilbert or Hugo like storm.

Yeah, 2022 through July 20th is near the average of non-El Nino seasons back to 1995. Neither quiet nor noisy in relation to those years. Also, the # of NS from this point on in a non-El Nino season has had virtually no correlation to the # of NS to this point since 1995. To be sure, yes, the TOTAL # of NS in non-El Nino seasons since 1995 has had some correlation to NS through July 20th, which is intuitive. But as far as what lies ahead, it hasn't mattered.

[Category5Kaiju]

Going through social media, it honestly gives me a bit of a chuckle on how there are those who are very insistent that because the EPS, for example, doesn't show any activity for the next 10 days in the Atlantic from today, that that is an indication of a bust coming. I mean, if they were to look at Atlantic hurricane season historical records in more detail, then they would probably obtain a better idea on how this basin normally works.

In all seriousness, while total NS count may not be as excessive as we once thought, I still do not see why predicted hurricane/major hurricane counts should change, and I genuinely would be very stunned to see this season underperform or end as even average or below average. In fact, I cannot remember the last time a solid La Nina year ended as average or below average. Wouldn't you have to go to a pre-1995 year to find such a kind of year? Anyways, I still am a believer that this season will kick into high gear in August, and I simply don't see how this dry air thing going on for the rest of July is any different from years such as 2021, 2019, 2017, and so forth. The fact that we had a convectively active June in the MDR makes me want to believe that this year, much unlike the dreaded boogeyman year we dare to mention, is very likely not going to face such wild stability problems.

[Category5Kaiju]

Seeing all this I still feel as if this year will be 2017-lite.
Remember how quiet 2017 was up until Harvey in mid-August?

Not this quiet lol. Franklin, Gert, etc

I think the more notorious and applicable examples would be last year and 2019. It was all quiet…until Fred/Grace/Henri/Ida came along, and Dorian.

[skyline385]

Seeing all this I still feel as if this year will be 2017-lite.
Remember how quiet 2017 was up until Harvey in mid-August?

Not this quiet lol. Franklin, Gert, etc

I think the more notorious and applicable examples would be last year and 2019. It was all quiet…until Fred/Grace/Henri/Ida came along, and Dorian.

Still 2019 was just above average at 132 ACE (Dorian alone had 47). It was a classic example of one storm defining a season (well Lorenzo too if you want to count it).

[LarryWx]

In all seriousness, while total NS count may not be as excessive as we once thought, I still do not see why predicted hurricane/major hurricane counts should change, and I genuinely would be very stunned to see this season underperform or end as even average or below average. In fact, I cannot remember the last time a solid La Nina year ended as average or below average. Wouldn't you have to go to a pre-1995 year to find such a kind of year?

It has been while. 2007 had an ACE of 74

[tolakram]

In all seriousness, while total NS count may not be as excessive as we once thought, I still do not see why predicted hurricane/major hurricane counts should change, and I genuinely would be very stunned to see this season underperform or end as even average or below average. In fact, I cannot remember the last time a solid La Nina year ended as average or below average. Wouldn't you have to go to a pre-1995 year to find such a kind of year?

It has been while. 2007 had an ACE of 74

That ridge, with Dean and Felix. I could see that happening again this year.