2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[wxman57]

https://i.postimg.cc/k5VywccL/IMG-9416.png

I’m still learning alot of things weather wise. What does this map depict?

The blue over Florida indicates lower pressure aloft, hinting at a possible storm track toward the NE Gulf.

[jfk08c]

https://i.postimg.cc/k5VywccL/IMG-9416.png

I’m still learning alot of things weather wise. What does this map depict?

500mb height anomalies are the steering patterns for tropical systems.

Reds are high pressure ridges. Think of them like mountains. Storms cannot go through them, they have to go around them. If they cannot go around them, they will sometimes get blocked and stall.

Blues are low pressure troughs. Think of them like valleys. Storms tend to get pulled towards them and lifted off.

That's the basic ELI5 terminology that I learned

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/flimpct/status/1835793354111459442



The last 10 days or so September might be a bit more interesting

[toad strangler]

That map shows the GEFS (ensembles) 500mb set up. This is the layer of atmosphere that has significant effect on steering of well developed tropical cyclones. This is too far out to take seriously at all. For now. But this specific map shows a weakness that would be a path of least resistance to a decently developed TC.

[Teban54]

I suppose that at this point, anything from "a disorganized mess that can't close off a circulation as it gets pulled north" to "a TS or Cat 1 landfalling in South Florida" to "a Cat 5 in the Gulf" is still on the table.

[Hurricane Mike]

The ensembles of both the GFS and EURO are showing two systems in the next week or so. One coming from the Southwest Caribbean, threatening the Yucatan, Cuba, Cayman Islands and Florida or the Gulf Coast, while another system forms off Africa.

[MetroMike]

The ensembles of both the GFS and EURO are showing two systems in the next week or so. One coming from the Southwest Caribbean, threatening the Yucatan, Cuba, Cayman Islands and Florida or the Gulf Coast, while another system forms off Africa.

I've heard some pro mets saying the MDR is closed for the season. Gordon was an example of fail out there.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1835856298208104869

[HurricaneBelle]

The CAG was the setup for Idalia last year, albeit a month earlier in the season.

[WeatherBoy2000]

The ensembles of both the GFS and EURO are showing two systems in the next week or so. One coming from the Southwest Caribbean, threatening the Yucatan, Cuba, Cayman Islands and Florida or the Gulf Coast, while another system forms off Africa.

I've heard some pro mets saying the MDR is closed for the season. Gordon was an example of fail out there.

It isn't over until it's over, but late September will probably be the last opportunity for anything intense/long tracking to develop out there before climatology likely shuts things down for good.

[Cyclenall]

There was no mention of the Euro 12z low that seems to spend forever east of the US coast. It may be subtropical or not at all as the precip is very broad later on sans 160 hrs in. It meanders south over 10 days. I love the run just for the constant ridging over me .

[MetroMike]

The CAG was the setup for Idalia last year, albeit a month earlier in the season.

This was also the set-up for MH Ian 2 years ago last part of September.

[Teban54]

18z GEFS shows an uptick in MDR activity. As with earlier, there are signals for waves leaving Africa around 9/23 and 9/26. Recent runs seem to be showing a very slight trend of both having more members develop, and generally being a little bit stronger. The combined signal from both waves, if taken verbatim, may suggest that an Eastern Atlantic storm is even more likely than a Caribbean one.



12z EPS also has a small uptick in the CV system, albeit not as much as GEFS. In the map below, most of the lows south of 30N in the open Atlantic are from the 9/26 wave.

[SouthFLTropics]

Oh boy… 00z GFS coming in much stronger in the earlier part of the run for our Western Caribbean system. Further east also.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Teban54]

Oh boy… 00z GFS coming in much stronger in the earlier part of the run for our Western Caribbean system. Further east also.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just when you think it couldn't get stronger from the Happy Hour run... 955 mb right over Key West.

[Stratton23]

00z GFS and CMC have decently strong fronts which is why the “ system” gets tugged NE toward florida and eventually up the east coast

[SouthFLTropics]

Oh boy… 00z GFS coming in much stronger in the earlier part of the run for our Western Caribbean system. Further east also.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Just when you think it couldn't get stronger from the Happy Hour run... 955 mb right over Key West.
https://i.postimg.cc/L6mn41LP/image.png

Looks like the sequel to Ian… making a run at Sanibel.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MetroMike]

Thats an Ian like track, good thing its a ways out in time.

[Teban54]

00z GFS and CMC have decently strong fronts which is why the “ system” gets tugged NE toward florida and eventually up the east coast

Of course, right after GFS caved in to CMC's persistent solution of an Ian-like track (that CMC has been showing for 3-4 runs), 0z CMC shifted west immediately and now shows an Idalia track

The CMC track would also be the third hurricane landfall in Perry over 13 months.

[Teban54]

Yeah, 0z GFS is the real Happy Hour, or perhaps Drunk Hour.

• Gordon becomes stronger and peaks at 981 mb, which is the strongest that GFS had shown in a few days
• The Caribbean system landfalls in Key West and Marco Island at 954 mb, crosses Lake Okeechobee, reintensifies after FL and landfalls in NC Outer Banks with the same pressure, before finally crashing into Long Island and New England
• The 9/22 wave becomes a hurricane in the eastern MDR, reaching 968 mb when recurving at 40W (like Helene 2018) -- Edit: Looks like it's blocked by a ridge at the end of the run
• (There's also a short-lived subtropical storm off the Carolinas coast at the same time when the two abovementioned storms are developing, but it might just be convective feedback)

Outside of GFS, though, 0z CMC has also shown development in the MDR for the first time in weeks (it didn't show Gordon until a TD had already formed). This run shows a TD/TS for both the 9/22 and the 9/26 waves.