2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[psyclone]

:uarrow: Looks like whatever may develop in the Western Caribbean should have an exit route up and out without affecting Florida or the continental U.S. The Greater Antilles and the Bahamas may not be so lucky.

And that becomes the dominant track for the super late season stuff. Think a track like Michelle (2001)...over central Cuba and the Bahamas with no impact to the CONUS. November CONUS impacts are exceedingly rare so the fact that there are no rumblings at this point is very good news for Florida...our odds are quickly improving each day.

[SFLcane]

Season could very well be winding down..let’s hope I think we’ve had enough.

[Steve H.]

uh, I don't think anybody in their right mind would say hurricane season is over for Florida on October 11th. Besides the overall setup such as an exit window for a SW Caribbean system is at such long range that after 240 hours it has no value. If I ran that news station I would fire that "met. "

[Bocadude85]

:uarrow: Looks like whatever may develop in the Western Caribbean should have an exit route up and out without affecting Florida or the continental U.S. The Greater Antilles and the Bahamas may not be so lucky.

The CFS forecast is a 15+ day forecast, I would not put much stock in the steering currents.

[jlauderdal]

The abc met frim Tampa said hurricane season is over fir Florida. Doesn't see anything fir the next 4 weeks.

using the reliable 30 day model..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

6z GFS in long range showing the SW Caribbean cyclone again.

[toad strangler]

6z GFS in long range showing the SW Caribbean cyclone again.

GFS showing cyclonic vort beginning to spin at 10 days. So it's finally moved up some. Something to watch.

[AutoPenalti]

The abc met frim Tampa said hurricane season is over fir Florida. Doesn't see anything fir the next 4 weeks.

Okay, now I know you’re making this up...

[gatorcane]

00Z long-range FIM has a disturbance that forms in the SW Caribbean then moves slowly north:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

00Z long-range FIM has a disturbance that forms in the SW Caribbean then moves slowly north:

GFS was also showing strong winds over Florida due to a pressure gradient with a caribbean cyclone in the mid to long range, and the time frame moved up a bit, so I think we might get a major hurricane brewing late month timing like Mitch 98 la nina enhanced.

[SFLcane]

All is quiet on the models..GFS showing a front making all the way to Cuba Hopefully closing the door on this season.

[gatorcane]

All is quiet on the models..GFS showing a front making all the way to Cuba Hopefully closing the door on this season.

That front is in the 300+ hour range so hardly believable. In the same timeframe it has a deepening cyclone developing in the SW Caribbean.

The last week October appears to be the week something could form in the SW Caribbean. Is too early to know where it would go if it forms this far out.

The EC doesn't go out that far but at 240 it shows a broad low now in the SW Caribbean:

[otowntiger]

All is quite on the models..GFS showing a front making all the way to Cuba Hopefully closing the door on this season.

That front is in the 300+ hour range so hardly believable. In the same timeframe it has a deepening cyclone developing in the SW Caribbean.

The last week October appears to be the week something could form in the SW Caribbean. Is too early to know where it would go if it forms this far out.

The EC doesn't go out that far but at 240 it shows a broad low now in the SW Caribbean:

https://s1.postimg.org/4xhp2aqfz3/ecmwf ... atl_11.png

I know, like you say it's too far out to know where it would go, but if we were to go with this model depicting a system of some sort developing in that general area, you would also have to acknowledge that the Synoptics in this model run would have this thing bury itself into Central America, right?

[gatorcane]

All is quite on the models..GFS showing a front making all the way to Cuba Hopefully closing the door on this season.

That front is in the 300+ hour range so hardly believable. In the same timeframe it has a deepening cyclone developing in the SW Caribbean.

The last week October appears to be the week something could form in the SW Caribbean. Is too early to know where it would go if it forms this far out.

The EC doesn't go out that far but at 240 it shows a broad low now in the SW Caribbean:

https://s1.postimg.org/4xhp2aqfz3/ecmwf ... atl_11.png

I know, like you say it's too far out to know where it would go, but if we were to go with this model depicting a system of some sort developing in that general area, you would also have to acknowledge that the Synoptics in this model run would have this thing bury itself into Central America, right?

Yes or possibly meandering around in the SW Caribbean for a while. I find it hard to believe we'll have that much ridging in the Caribbean/Gulf/Florida especially come later in October. Eventually the cold fronts will start to come.

You can see from the long-range GFS the runs that do develop something in the SW Caribbean have some kind of deep trough off to the N or NW which allows more of an anti-cyclone to build over the Western Caribbean.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z GFS starts low pressure around 240hrs and has a full tropical cyclone in the longer ranges.






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[Blown Away]

18z GFS has a Cat 2 hurricane in long range... Track is somewhat in line with climatology, but zigs and zags...

[toad strangler]

Moving up in time again on post truncated 18z GFS. Chances increasing on TC genesis. Using a general climo track is prudent. 500mb set up so far out is a crapshoot. Being so late in October I would blend in some NOV climo track with October just for starters. This GFS OP run is pretty much that.

[SFLcane]

We shall see....

[TheStormExpert]

18z GEFS Ensembles for 240hrs. and beyond.

[blp]

FIM is still on board and starts development before 240hr mark.