2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[chaser1]

0z Euro ensembles, continuing to trend towards development in the western Caribbean in the 5-10 day range.

https://i.imgur.com/yCvIAge.gif

You just threw me a curve ball lol. I know the operational EURO only goes out to 240 hr., so where are you getting this depicting the EURO ensembles going out much further in time?

5-10 days ends at 240 hours......which I'm sure you know That's the timeframe he is talking about and what the graphic depicts

Nope... click the link itself and watch the time progression. It actually does go out to 326 hours (final verifying time being 0Z October 13)

[gatorcane]

ICON going stronger:

[toad strangler]

You just threw me a curve ball lol. I know the operational EURO only goes out to 240 hr., so where are you getting this depicting the EURO ensembles going out much further in time?

5-10 days ends at 240 hours......which I'm sure you know That's the timeframe he is talking about and what the graphic depicts

Nope... click the link itself and watch the time progression. It actually does go out to 326 hours (final verifying time being 0Z October 13)

Yep, I see it now. My bad.

[boca]

Doesn’t look like it’s heading to Florida but going NNE

[toad strangler]

Doesn’t look like it’s heading to Florida but going NNE

Too far out for placement. Really right now it's all about the models coming together with consensus that their will be "something" coming out of the S to SW Caribbean.

[NDG]

You just threw me a curve ball lol. I know the operational EURO only goes out to 240 hr., so where are you getting this depicting the EURO ensembles going out much further in time?

5-10 days ends at 240 hours......which I'm sure you know That's the timeframe he is talking about and what the graphic depicts

Nope... click the link itself and watch the time progression. It actually does go out to 326 hours (final verifying time being 0Z October 13)

https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ec ... clones.php

[toad strangler]

12z Canadian at 240. FWIW

[NDG]

12z GFS having its usual problems with a monsoonal vortex

[Hurricaneman]

12z GFS having its usual problems with a monsoonal vortex

Yep, spitting out 5 storms from the same area, looks like convective feedback, the Canadian looks sane in comparison

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GEFS with a noticeable increase in the number of members showing some development focused in the NW Caribbean:

[Hurricaneman]

12z Canadian at 240. FWIW

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc107/softparade1313/gem_z850_vort_watl_41.png

I wouldn’t discount this solution

[chaser1]

Not only was the ICON even stronger on this run but extremely consistent track and location from last nights' 0Z to today's 12Z run as well. Today's 12Z GFS run is finally joining the over-all more western model camps (ICON, EURO, CMC, and EURO ensembles) depicting some level of development or lower pressures. Curious to see if the new FV3-GFS comes west this run as well but I am assuming it will. Up to now, ICON and CMC (along with a few of the EMS plots) show evolution of a tropical cyclone around 180 hours, while the GFS and EURO operational are distinctly further out in time. Will be interesting to see if either or both begin to start sniffing out earlier cyclogenesis and more in-line with the typically inferior models.

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: Not only was the ICON even stronger on this run but extremely consistent track and location from last nights' 0Z to today's 12Z run as well. Today's 12Z GFS run is finally joining the over-all more western model camps (ICON, EURO, CMC, and EURO ensembles) depicting some level of development or lower pressures. Curious to see if the new FV3-GFS comes west this run as well but I am assuming it will. Up to now, ICON and CMC (along with a few of the EMS plots) show evolution of a tropical cyclone around 180 hours, while the GFS and EURO operational are distinctly further out in time. Will be interesting to see if either or both begin to start sniffing out earlier cyclogenesis and more in-line with the typically inferior models.

The test GFS is having a low forming near Hispaniola from convective feedback it seems, it’s nowhere near the 850 low and that IMO makes the GFS and it’s test model wrong based on spurious lows

[chaser1]

5-10 days ends at 240 hours......which I'm sure you know That's the timeframe he is talking about and what the graphic depicts

Nope... click the link itself and watch the time progression. It actually does go out to 326 hours (final verifying time being 0Z October 13)

https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ec ... clones.php

Ah, thanks . Primary link took me there. Oddly, I can't seem to get the EPS spaghetti'os to loop but that's okay. At least I can click each 6 hr'ly chart

[chaser1]

:uarrow: Not only was the ICON even stronger on this run but extremely consistent track and location from last nights' 0Z to today's 12Z run as well. Today's 12Z GFS run is finally joining the over-all more western model camps (ICON, EURO, CMC, and EURO ensembles) depicting some level of development or lower pressures. Curious to see if the new FV3-GFS comes west this run as well but I am assuming it will. Up to now, ICON and CMC (along with a few of the EMS plots) show evolution of a tropical cyclone around 180 hours, while the GFS and EURO operational are distinctly further out in time. Will be interesting to see if either or both begin to start sniffing out earlier cyclogenesis and more in-line with the typically inferior models.

The test GFS is having a low forming near Hispaniola from convective feedback it seems, it’s nowhere near the 850 low and that IMO makes the GFS and it’s test model wrong based on spurious lows

Yep; America's newest and greatest answer to the EURO Maybe one day......
Oh well, give it 2 or 3 more runs and I suppose it'll catch up with the remaining models depicting W. Caribbean development (or at least lower pressures)

[chaser1]

The 12Z GEFS with a noticeable increase in the number of members showing some development focused in the NW Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/7L5PW6yr/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_40.png

Not only a notable increase in GEFS members toward the W. Caribbean but a consolidation of members beginning at about 156 hours thus closer in line with ICON and CMC time frame of development. If this trend were to continue then I'd get the sense that the GFS operational might suddenly jump a good deal forward in time with cyclogenesis. On it's first run depicting W. Caribbean development (rather then a E. Caribbean solution), it's merely showing a stretched out 1004 low in the W. Caribbean at 288 hours which swiftly flies northeast and only deepens some when east of the Bahamas. We might begin to see the GFS depicting faster/lower pressures at the 180-192 hour range in subsequent runs to come. Keep in mind, an earlier developing (and deeper) system might well suggest less of a NNE departure out of the Caribbean as the current GFS depicts.

[Hurricaneman]

The 12Z GEFS with a noticeable increase in the number of members showing some development focused in the NW Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/7L5PW6yr/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_40.png

Not only a notable increase in GEFS members toward the W. Caribbean but a consolidation of members beginning at about 156 hours thus closer in line with ICON and CMC time frame of development. If this trend were to continue then I'd get the sense that the GFS operational might suddenly jump a good deal forward in time with cyclogenesis. On it's first run depicting W. Caribbean development (rather then a E. Caribbean solution), it's merely showing a stretched out 1004 low in the W. Caribbean at 288 hours which swiftly flies northeast and only deepens some when east of the Bahamas. We might begin to see the GFS depicting faster/lower pressures at the 180-192 hour range in subsequent runs to come. Keep in mind, an earlier developing (and deeper) system might well suggest less of a NNE departure out of the Caribbean as the current GFS depicts.

If this does what the models say though would it be Kirk or Michael or will we not know until next week

[WeatherEmperor]

12z JMA




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[chaser1]

The 12Z GEFS with a noticeable increase in the number of members showing some development focused in the NW Caribbean:

https://i.postimg.cc/7L5PW6yr/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_40.png

Not only a notable increase in GEFS members toward the W. Caribbean but a consolidation of members beginning at about 156 hours thus closer in line with ICON and CMC time frame of development. If this trend were to continue then I'd get the sense that the GFS operational might suddenly jump a good deal forward in time with cyclogenesis. On it's first run depicting W. Caribbean development (rather then a E. Caribbean solution), it's merely showing a stretched out 1004 low in the W. Caribbean at 288 hours which swiftly flies northeast and only deepens some when east of the Bahamas. We might begin to see the GFS depicting faster/lower pressures at the 180-192 hour range in subsequent runs to come. Keep in mind, an earlier developing (and deeper) system might well suggest less of a NNE departure out of the Caribbean as the current GFS depicts.

If this does what the models say though would it be Kirk or Michael or will we not know until next week

Seems to me that this far out, there'd be no identifiable remnant of Kirk. Furthermore, as I was looking more closely at the GFS 500 vorticity from present analysis and outward from there, it became that much more evident to me that whatever development that may evolve out of the Western Caribbean appears to have origin from the ITCZ around Central America and appears to split off from a competing low attempting to develop on the other side.

[TheStormExpert]

Model consensus seems to have trended west today. No surprise, considering that over the past few years that has been the normal trend in the Atlantic featuring a stronger Bermuda High.