2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[blp]

Last nights 00z run of the NASA model is showing it as well.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Been nice and quiet which has been a nice change. They just today picked up all the crap on our streets, after what a month damn slow. As for the future most of my shutters are still up my wife is bitching Lol. But I am not convinced we are done just yet, so going to wait another week and may be a few days to take down the rest of the shutters, and replace the fence. Not one cold front or even a weak front has come down yet, in fact we still have HP bring the flow from the Atlantic so still a summer pattern, we shall see.

[jlauderdal]

Been nice and quiet which has been a nice change. They just today picked up all the crap on our streets, after what a month damn slow. As for the future most of my shutters are still up my wife is bitching Lol. But I am not convinced we are done just yet, so going to wait another week and may be a few days to take down the rest of the shutters, and replace the fence. Not one cold front or even a weak front has come down yet, in fact we still have HP bring the flow from the Atlantic so still a summer pattern, we shall see.

i have a pile of limbs and a pile of fencing at the end of my driveway, fort lauderdale says 30% done with cleanup so be happy in dade with your pickup...your wife should complain living in the dark, take em down put them off to the side, lol..i am leaving mine out by the windows until halloween, i dont even remember a cold front making it down here last season, i know one thing that the heat wasn't turned on once last season and that is unusual

[SFLcane]

Nada on the overnight models It will be thanksgiving by the time that long range GFS verifies. Even if something develops look at the strong upper level winds over the GOM and Florida yea just based on that the door is about closed for any US impact atleast in Florida for that matter.

[blp]

Looks like models shifted toward more land interaction. Looks like the High is still forecasted to be strong even in late October. I still think we will get a big one out of here but it might be closer to November.

The MJO forecast is stronger now for Oct 27 than in previous runs. Let's see how it plays out.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Nada on the overnight models It will be thanksgiving by the time that long range GFS verifies. Even if something develops look at the strong upper level winds over the GOM and Florida yea just based on that the door is about closed for any US impact at least in Florida for that matter.

Don't mean to be rude, but have we not learned any lessons about looking at a 144 hr GFS shear forecast? While I am the last person wanting anything to form down there, the door is far from closed for US impacts.

[gatorcane]

The CFS continues to suggest the SW Caribbean will be the place to watch last week in October. As BLP pointed out, last couple of runs of GFS show land interaction with Central America which prevents further development.

[wxman57]

Both the EC & GFS indicate high pressure anomalies at 500mb over the western Caribbean in the long range. Nothing to indicate tropical development there. I'm not seeing a pattern that would indicate any U.S. threat in the next couple of weeks, should development occur in the SW Caribbean. Perhaps an Otto-like path into Central America, but more likely no development at all.

[SFLcane]

Both the EC & GFS indicate high pressure anomalies at 500mb over the western Caribbean in the long range. Nothing to indicate tropical development there. I'm not seeing a pattern that would indicate any U.S. threat in the next couple of weeks, should development occur in the SW Caribbean. Perhaps an Otto-like path into Central America, but more likely no development at all.

Thx 57 for you imput as always hopefully we can put this season to rest.

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM with Caribbean development:

[gatorcane]

How the CMC ends with a trough dipping down over the US with hurricane turning NW near Yucatan. Now this is looking more like a La Nina mid to late October:

[LarryWx]

As long as it is just the CMC, it is pretty meaningless since it overdevelops so often and doesn't recognize shear very well as an inhibitant. Look at how poorly the CMC did with this last entity that formed n of the Caribbean. It kept hitting S FL with a TS-H! Don't believe it.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS into Nicaragua and Costa Rica with no development.

[gatorcane]

As long as it is just the CMC, it is pretty meaningless since it overdevelops so often and doesn't recognize shear very well as an inhibitant. Look at how poorly the CMC did with this last entity that formed n of the Caribbean. It kept hitting S FL with a TS-H! Don't believe it.

No doubt the CMC is usually over-zealous and if it is the only model you can be assured it won't verify. But if you look closely at the GFS the past few runs, you can see it has trended toward a stronger 850mb vorticity (screen shot below) and also has backed off some on the El-nino-like shear across the Caribbean. This is the same GFS that also showed El-nino shear preventing Nate from developing and had the invest that spawned Nate moving into Central America or developing in the EPAC in the long-range. Kindaof sounds familiar again here doesn't it?

[Alyono]

As long as it is just the CMC, it is pretty meaningless since it overdevelops so often and doesn't recognize shear very well as an inhibitant. Look at how poorly the CMC did with this last entity that formed n of the Caribbean. It kept hitting S FL with a TS-H! Don't believe it.

No doubt the CMC is usually over-zealous and if it is the only model you can be assured it won't verify. But if you look closely at the GFS the past few runs, you can see it has trended toward a stronger 850mb vorticity (screen shot below) and also has backed off some on the El-nino-like shear across the Caribbean. This is the same GFS that also showed El-nino shear preventing Nate from developing and had the invest that spawned Nate moving into Central America or developing in the EPAC in the long-range. Kindaof sounds familiar again here doesn't it?

someone really needs to slap the GFS up side the head and let it know we are NOT in an el niño and we will NOT be entering one next week

[TheStormExpert]

That same GFS once again attempts at spinning up a decent TC in the Eastern Pacific at the end of the month.

[EquusStorm]

As long as it is just the CMC, it is pretty meaningless since it overdevelops so often and doesn't recognize shear very well as an inhibitant. Look at how poorly the CMC did with this last entity that formed n of the Caribbean. It kept hitting S FL with a TS-H! Don't believe it.

While very true, to play Devils advocate on that specific case, the GFS also suggested a tropical storm there for more than a couple of runs. Of course it got dropped before too long and it only wound up as an upper level system with scattered convection but yeah. CMC also wanted to take it and develop it in the Gulf so not exactly a good call regardless of slight initial GFS agreement.

[LarryWx]

As long as it is just the CMC, it is pretty meaningless since it overdevelops so often and doesn't recognize shear very well as an inhibitant. Look at how poorly the CMC did with this last entity that formed n of the Caribbean. It kept hitting S FL with a TS-H! Don't believe it.

No doubt the CMC is usually over-zealous and if it is the only model you can be assured it won't verify. But if you look closely at the GFS the past few runs, you can see it has trended toward a stronger 850mb vorticity (screen shot below) and also has backed off some on the El-nino-like shear across the Caribbean. This is the same GFS that also showed El-nino shear preventing Nate from developing and had the invest that spawned Nate moving into Central America or developing in the EPAC in the long-range. Kindaof sounds familiar again here doesn't it?

But unlike in advance of Nate, GEFS & EPS runs have been quiet other than a couple of members here and there (vs the many members having a TC most runs in late Sep/early Oct) and also early Oct is more actual on average for geneses vs late Oct. At this point, I think this will likely not develop into anything like the CMC has, if it even develops.

[LarryWx]

As long as it is just the CMC, it is pretty meaningless since it overdevelops so often and doesn't recognize shear very well as an inhibitant. Look at how poorly the CMC did with this last entity that formed n of the Caribbean. It kept hitting S FL with a TS-H! Don't believe it.

While very true, to play Devils advocate on that specific case, the GFS also suggested a tropical storm there for more than a couple of runs. Of course it got dropped before too long and it only wound up as an upper level system with scattered convection but yeah. CMC also wanted to take it and develop it in the Gulf so not exactly a good call regardless of slight initial GFS agreement.

Yes, the GFS has a TD to weak TS on several runs but it did back off. The CMC was so bad that it had like 2 runs with a H coming back into fl from GOM like Kate.

[gatorcane]

Now THAT is a season-ending trough for Florida:

But I am pretty sure the GFS is overdoing it.