2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[chaser1]

216 hr EURO looking a more defined 1007 low just west of Jamaica then last night's run indicated. Also, there's some other subtle but obvious changes. Much stronger pressure gradient depicted over Florida and 500mb heights are distinctly higher then depicted on prior run. 240 hr. move's some small center due north into Cuba but no way to tell whether it was deepening further prior to landfall. Going further in time I'd guess a continued North to NNE motion would continue from there.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro not impressed.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro not impressed.

http://i67.tinypic.com/20gjm9u.png

Verbatim sure. But that's not what we are looking for 10 days out. Every model has lowering pressures in the same general area. A must watch for sure given Tis the Season for this area of the basin.

[Hurricaneman]

12z Euro not impressed.

http://i67.tinypic.com/20gjm9u.png

There is a closed area over Cuba, that’s why no strengthening but if this is farther south then this would be a problem

[chaser1]

Take-away from today's early runs seem to point toward growing consensus of having a T.D. to low end T.S. in the N.W. Caribbean somewhere between 180-220 hr.'s. from now. Will be interesting to see if an increase in EURO EPS members suggest a deeper system then the operational model suggests.

[toad strangler]

Take-away from today's early runs seem to point toward growing consensus of having a T.D. to low end T.S. in the N.W. Caribbean somewhere between 180-220 hr.'s. from now. Will be interesting to see if an increase in EURO EPS members suggest a deeper system then the operational model suggests.

Would like to see 12z UKIE as well. I can only find previous 00z right now

[SFLcane]

So far 12z EPS is still fairly active..

[Hurricaneman]

So far 12z EPS is still fairly active..

Look closer to the Yucatan channel overall

[SFLcane]

Id say 12z EPS is more active the 00z with quite the concentration near the NW Caribbean. Some intense hurricanes there near SFL.

[LarryWx]

Id say 12z EPS is more active the 00z with quite the concentration near the NW Caribbean. Some intense hurricanes there near SFL.

The 12Z GEFS and EPS are both the most active of any run yet for Oct. They both suggest we have a break now but watch out 2nd wk in Oct entire Gulf coast. Time to check out climo for NW Car geneses ~10/5-8.

[WeatherEmperor]

Id say 12z EPS is more active the 00z with quite the concentration near the NW Caribbean. Some intense hurricanes there near SFL.

Can you post some images? I am on the road and dont have my bookmarks on my phone. Sorry about that


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[AnnularCane]

Id say 12z EPS is more active the 00z with quite the concentration near the NW Caribbean. Some intense hurricanes there near SFL.

The 12Z GEFS and EPS are both the most active of any run yet for Oct. They both suggest we have a break now but watch out 2nd wk in Oct entire Gulf coast. Time to check out climo for NW Car geneses ~10/5-8.

Last time the models said we'd have a break, we got Kirk and Leslie.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GEFS and EPS are saying NW Car or SE/SC GOM genesis quite possible ~10/4-10. So, here is climo for Oct 1-10 1851-2015 geneses:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

Add Nate from 2017:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricanes/2017/atlantic/nate

Conclusion per GEFS/EPS/climo: entire Gulf coast in play for 2nd wk oct hit from early Oct genesis but with more weighting FL/less TX

[mlfreeman]

The 12Z GEFS and EPS are saying NW Car or SE/SC GOM genesis quite possible ~10/4-10. So, here is climo for Oct 1-10 1851-2015 geneses:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

Add Nate from 2017:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricanes/2017/atlantic/nate

Conclusion per GEFS/EPS/climo: entire Gulf coast in play for 2nd wk oct hit from early Oct genesis but with more weighting FL/less TX

What storm formed *over* Florida?

[Hurricaneman]

The 12Z GEFS and EPS are saying NW Car or SE/SC GOM genesis quite possible ~10/4-10. So, here is climo for Oct 1-10 1851-2015 geneses:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

Add Nate from 2017:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricanes/2017/atlantic/nate

Conclusion per GEFS/EPS/climo: entire Gulf coast in play for 2nd wk oct hit from early Oct genesis but with more weighting FL/less TX

What storm formed *over* Florida?

He’s not saying anything is going to form over Florida, it’s more like Florida is a likely destination

[AutoPenalti]

The 12Z GEFS and EPS are saying NW Car or SE/SC GOM genesis quite possible ~10/4-10. So, here is climo for Oct 1-10 1851-2015 geneses:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

Add Nate from 2017:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricanes/2017/atlantic/nate

Conclusion per GEFS/EPS/climo: entire Gulf coast in play for 2nd wk oct hit from early Oct genesis but with more weighting FL/less TX

What storm formed *over* Florida?

He’s not saying anything is going to form over Florida, it’s more like Florida is a likely destination

I think he's asking what storm formed over Florida...

[mlfreeman]

What storm formed *over* Florida?

He’s not saying anything is going to form over Florida, it’s more like Florida is a likely destination

I think he's asking what storm formed over Florida...

Yes, there's one red dot over Florida on the first image.
I'm assuming red dots = where storms were formed.
I'm curious which storm that was, if anyone can tell somehow.

[SFLcane]

12z EPS...

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS shows a convective feedback system going up the east coast while the system the other models show is forming after truncation so we may have to wait a few days for the GFS catches on

[toad strangler]

12z UKMET was slower at 168 hours and in the deep SW Caribbean