TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Okibeach]

Looks like extrap been right all along now,

[Wnghs2007]

hahaha GFDL...so, when all the models shift back west...what is all of the people who shifted last time out to sea going to say??

That its a diriviteve of the GFS and so the model sucks.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I say keep it running for the record. The game forum one is 2,600 post.

[gkrangers]

If that GFDL forecast verifies, I'll form a new religion with it as the deity.

Otherwise... breaks down in uncontrollable giggling

If Irene stalled off the coast, it would be an even bigger nightmare to forecast than it is now..

[Ivanhater]

hahaha GFDL...so, when all the models shift back west...what is all of the people who shifted last time out to sea going to say??

they will stay quiet till another shift

[Wnghs2007]

I say keep it running for the record. The game forum one is 2,600 post.

Haha haha that is funny, I guess you were not around for when there was a REAL Game Forum, some of those threads had 40,000 posts +

[CronkPSU]

Looks like extrap been right all along now,

LOL, it did for like 5 days when it went straight west while all the others had it going out to sea, yet another 2005 anomaly (sp?)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I was around

[wxman57]

When will a new thread be created??? No one is gonna read 99 pages...

I don't understand the reasonig behind starting a new thread. If a new thread is started, then you would be forcing a new reader to go to another thread, read the 99 pages, then go to the new thread, right? Why not have the entire discussion in one thread to avoid duplicate threads? If someone is bored enough to read 99+ pages of posts about Irene developing, not developing, moving west, moving WNW, etc., more power to him/her.

[Wnghs2007]

When will a new thread be created??? No one is gonna read 99 pages...

I don't understand the reasonig behind starting a new thread. If a new thread is started, then you would be forcing a new reader to go to another thread, read the 99 pages, then go to the new thread, right? Why not have the entire discussion in one thread to avoid duplicate threads? If someone is bored enough to read 99+ pages of posts about Irene developing, not developing, moving west, moving WNW, etc., more power to him/her.

LOL, that is well said and I agree

[huricanwatcher]

just go to the latest page to catch up what is going on..... simple!!!

[clfenwi]

hahaha GFDL...so, when all the models shift back west...what is all of the people who shifted last time out to sea going to say??

That its a diriviteve of the GFS and so the model sucks.

You do realize that it beat the NHC's forecast in the 72, 96, and 120 hr periods during Charley? (1)

And the NHC's forecasts for all periods after 36 hours during Ivan? (2)

And was the top performer (for track forecasts) among models that NHC tracked in 2003? (3)

For a model that sucks, it does a darn good job.

(1) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004charley.shtml?
(2) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml?
(3) http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc04/presentations ... jgross.ppt

NOTE: By no means an endorsement of the latest GFDL forecast.

[storms in NC]

Looks like extrap been right all along now,

I was in your neck of the woods 2 week-ends ago. went fishing there.

[clfenwi]

If that GFDL forecast verifies, I'll form a new religion with it as the deity.

Otherwise... breaks down in uncontrollable giggling

If Irene stalled off the coast, it would be an even bigger nightmare to forecast than it is now..

Yeah, if you thought TD Irene made forecasters cry and/or pull out their hair... and the GFDL forecast verifies then... stand by to stand by!

[tallywx]

Having one unified thread is also great for posterity's sake when during the winter months, we're so bored that we'd like to read up all about Irene. Makes it easier to retrieve all the posts on her.

Say she ends up hitting Washington D.C. as a cat 5. Point is, we don't know in advance. but if she does, wouldn't it be great in hindsight to know that the entire chronicle of the storm was together in one thread?

[Wnghs2007]

hahaha GFDL...so, when all the models shift back west...what is all of the people who shifted last time out to sea going to say??

That its a diriviteve of the GFS and so the model sucks.

You do realize that it beat the NHC's forecast in the 72, 96, and 120 hr periods during Charley? (1)

And the NHC's forecasts for all periods after 36 hours during Ivan? (2)

And was the top performer (for track forecasts) among models that NHC tracked in 2003? (3)

For a model that sucks, it does a darn good job.

(1) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004charley.shtml?
(2) http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml?
(3) http://www.ofcm.gov/ihc04/presentations ... jgross.ppt

NOTE: By no means an endorsement of the latest GFDL forecast.

You misread my post, I was saying that is what all the out to sea people are going to say about the model. Because they have the mentality that anything that comes off the GFS sucks.
And the GFDL is a direct model related to the GFS.

Thought I happen to agree with them in most cases that the GFS bites crap on wheels after 84 hours in the winter and most other times btw, I do not happen to agree with them now. LOL, Now Im consfusing myself.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The ridge is filling yes? I thought it was earlier today. But it looks as though the globals are picking that up now. Too soon to tell, but a another run or two. I predicted a "crossroads" for Irene this morning. Let's see which road she takes. I gather from the last discussion the NHC sees it that way too, but they don't have the luxury of saying that like I do. They have to pick a solution which is most likely and be right. The speed of the system is tough to guess at/predict. speeding and slowing start to have larger effect from here on in. N or W ( that S thing is a model waggle)

[gkrangers]

If that GFDL forecast verifies, I'll form a new religion with it as the deity.

Otherwise... breaks down in uncontrollable giggling

If Irene stalled off the coast, it would be an even bigger nightmare to forecast than it is now..

Yeah, if you thought TD Irene made forecasters cry and/or pull out their hair... and the GFDL forecast verifies then... stand by to stand by!

The thing is, the stalling is a valid idea. *sigh*

[shaggy]

i am not sure i trust any model in such a strange pattern on a even stranger storm.Just along for a ride that may get bumpy for me here in NC thats all.Curious to see what happens when and IF it slows down in the later periods.

[Wnghs2007]

2000th POST IN THIS THREAD! YIPPE!!!!


Oh and Irene looking much better than 24 hours ago on Sat. I would not be suprised to see the system become a hurricane in the next day or two!