Eastern Pacific Convection

[Meso]

Yeah,there is good moisture and low shear in most areas too.I'm thinking something will pop up on the TWO within 36 hours...Invest by 60 hours and a depression within 72-84.While there is nothing to base what I'm saying on as there is not much out there...It's more of a 'guestimate' due to what the all the models have been displaying

[Meso]

Starting to look like something may start to get going some time soon

[KWT]

Oh yep thats starting to look very suspect, I think thats our next invest there Meso and its in a good location for development as well I think. Nice deep convection, it does IMO have all the hallmarks of a area worth having an invest on.

[srainhoutx]

Snipet from Caribbean Narrative from HPC concerning EPAC...

LATEST ANALYSIS OF THE POTENTIAL VELOCITY ANOMALIES SHOWS
FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS ENHANCING ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION OVER
PANAMA-COSTA RICA/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. ALONG THE ITCZ...THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS FORECAST THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THAT DEVELOPS WEST OF COSTA RICA BY 36-48 HRS...AND
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES ALONG 10N 100W BY 72-84 HRS. CROSS
SECTIONAL ANALYSIS OF THE CYCLONE...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS
MODEL...SHOWS A METEOROLOGICALLY SOUND FEATURE. SO CONSIDER
RISK/POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORMATION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

[KWT]

Yep does anyone have the model run from the 12z GFS so we can see what happens in the run?

Very curious looking system though and I do think we need to watch this, esp if there are hints of a circulation.

[Meso]

Here are the 120 hour runs from the 12z models.. About the time that the GFS and EURO form the system






And here is the NAM 66 Hours

[KWT]

So we've got pretty good model agreement then Meso and a clear are aof deep convection that appears at least to be in a fairly condusive area for development with high enough SST's...I think we may have something to watch there soon.

[HURAKAN]

It's time for the train to begin rolling for the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

I agree Sandy.

[KWT]

Some decent convection present probably related to the ITCZ, certainly is sizeable area of convection down there which needs to be watched closely, wonder when we will see a TWO mention it.

[cycloneye]

From 5 PM PDT Discussion:

...DISCUSSION...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TWO AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER E OF
120W...WHICH ARE BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. THE
FIRST IS A NEWLY-FORMED AND WESTWARD-DRIFTING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
NEAR 11N111W...POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW
ANALYZED ALONG 116W. AT PRESENT...THERE IS LITTLE HISTORY ON
THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND THE CONVECTION WHICH HAS FORMED IS
FAIRLY DISORGANIZED. THE SECOND AREA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 92W...IS MUCH BROADER AND LACKS ANY
STRUCTURE OR ORGANIZATION. LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND BOTH WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... 62322.tdsc

[Meso]

The 00z Euro is closing off a low in 72 hours then has another one forming a few days afterwards

[KWT]

Still got a good region of convection in that area we have been watching, given what the models show I think its only a matter of time before we have something of note coming out of this area of convection given upper atmospheric conditions aren't too bad at the moment.

[HURAKAN]

Should be an invest soon.

[KWT]

Agreed Hurakan I see no reason why this won't be an invest soon, I expect 94E within the next 24hrs to be honest.

[boca]

I think an invest will occur and I'm going out on a limb and say a depression will form within the next day or so. My reasoning is the system has nice inflow and you can see curvature in the clouds which shows organization.

[cycloneye]

94E later today?

[HURAKAN]

We have seen invests being put up for a bunch of clouds. Today we see an organized disturbance, and we're still waiting for the invest.

[srainhoutx]

I have to agree with 94E on the near horizon. The door is slowly opening across the Deep Tropics.

[boca]

94E later today?

Hey Luis your getting like Sandy when it comes to those nice satelite shots.