was there a year when predictions were out of hand?

[Mecklenburg]

Nope Bertha actually was very lucky in that it didn't really have any SAL to deal with, hence why it powered up so far east.

Anyway to ram home the point that we are very unlikely to get a season below 12 storms....here is a list of where every season that got 13 or more TS since 1950 and where they were at this stage...this is ranked in order of ACE from lowest to highest in the season overall:


1: 2007- 3/0/0
2: 1990- 4/2/0
3: 1971- 2/0/0
4: 1953- 1/0/0
5: 2001- 2/0/0
6: 2000- 1/1/0
7: 1969- 2/0/0
8: 1996- 3/2/1
9: 2003- 4/2/0
10: 1998- 1/0/0
11: 2004- 2/1/1
12: 1995- 4/2/0
13: 1950- 0/0/0
14: 2005- 8/3/2

2008 at the moment--- 5/2/1


So as you can see whilst its still early we are decently ahead of even some of the more hyperactive seasons, take 1950 for example, 2nd most active season in terms of ACE ever yet at this stage nothing at all!
1969 ended up with 18 TS and only had 2 named storms at this point. So as you can odds strongly favor above 13 NS given how many of those seasons are below this one at this same point. Only 2005 really stands out though...

EDIT---Offical 3.4 numbers were -0.4, 0.1C above La Nina values...neutral but on the cool side.

and to think that season produced over 8 major hurricanes... and it's first 6 storms were actually major hurricanes parading from aug. 12 to sep. 17

[KWT]

Exactly, most of those active seasons ramped up between the 15-25th of August and so thats the sort of timeframe when we should watch if things like that happen this time.

Another season that was active was 1961, which only had 1/1/0 at this point...and that season went on to have 11/9/7 in terms of numbers and also 2 category-5's.

[Category 5]

i did recall that there was a long lull between tropical storm harvey and hurricane irene in 2005 because of SAL

Irene formed while Harvey was still active.

In all practical senses, there were NO lulls in 2005.

[x-y-no]

Wow ... August has barely started and the season bust comments are going strong ...

In another 6 to 8 weeks we'll have a good idea how this season will end up. I'm not about to abandon my season prediction.

[hial2]

All I know is that there's a chance of a lot of sock-eating come November...at least is good roughage.

[americanrebel]

What I don't like is that on average the Gulf Coast is at a 30% chance of getting hit by a major, and this year with the newest forecast, the Gulf Coast is at a 42% chance of getting hit by a major. I know 12 % difference might not sound like a lot, but think of it this way normally it is less than 1 out of 3 storms will hit the Gulf Coast and this year it is at more than 2 out of 5 storms will hit the Gulf Coast. That is very dangerous.

[Category 5]

What I don't like is that on average the Gulf Coast is at a 30% chance of getting hit by a major, and this year with the newest forecast, the Gulf Coast is at a 42% chance of getting hit by a major. I know 12 % difference might not sound like a lot, but think of it this way normally it is less than 1 out of 3 storms will hit the Gulf Coast and this year it is at more than 2 out of 5 storms will hit the Gulf Coast. That is very dangerous.

IMO those predictions are bogus.

[Derek Ortt]

guys

can we please stop with this the season is dead? Every single year, the same mantra is sung. Even in 2005 people were singing this mantra

WE ARE ABOVE NORMAL. Let me repeat WE ARE ABOVE NORMAL

I'd like to ask how many people remember the 1998 hurricane season? If you don't, my recommendation would be to study it some

If this follows 1998, we will have 18 storms this season

[Derek Ortt]

dry air is NOT always due to SAL.

Much of the dry air in 2005 came from the mid-latitudes (near the Canary Islands). Unless the Saharan Desert was transported into the NE Atlantic Ocean, much of the dry air did not come from the CV

[KWT]

Yep exactly Derek, I've studied so many past seasons and as you say if we get a peak like 1998, which is posible would give us some very impressive numbers, as would 1999 as well.

[Mecklenburg]

i did recall that there was a long lull between tropical storm harvey and hurricane irene in 2005 because of SAL

Irene formed while Harvey was still active.

In all practical senses, there were NO lulls in 2005.

oh let me correct that... there was long long lull of tropical cyclogenesis between hurricane IRENE and tropical storm JOSE

[Emmett_Brown]

I spent a good part of last night down in my laboratory huddled around my laptop, reading the new CSU and TSR forecasts in great detail. It is pretty amazing that after the last couple of over hyped seasons that the forecasts are calling for such high levels of activity. I would think that if anything, they might be a little gun shy... one more over hype, and people might start disregarding these forecasts as useless. I would think that they are aware of this, so it probably means that they are pretty confident that we are in for a busy season.

The TSR forecast was interesting because it utilizes only 2 predictors; strength of trade winds, and water temps.

The analog seasons of the CSU forecast show a lot fish storms historically, so lots of action may not necessarily mean a rough season for the coast.

[Mecklenburg]

I spent a good part of last night down in my laboratory huddled around my laptop, reading the new CSU and TSR forecasts in great detail. It is pretty amazing that after the last couple of over hyped seasons that the forecasts are calling for such high levels of activity. I would think that if anything, they might be a little gun shy... one more over hype, and people might start disregarding these forecasts as useless. I would think that they are aware of this, so it probably means that they are pretty confident that we are in for a busy season.

The TSR forecast was interesting because it utilizes only 2 predictors; strength of trade winds, and water temps.

The analog seasons of the CSU forecast show a lot fish storms historically, so lots of action may not necessarily mean a rough season for the coast.

exactly, i think this season too is overhyped as well

[Category 5]

I spent a good part of last night down in my laboratory huddled around my laptop, reading the new CSU and TSR forecasts in great detail. It is pretty amazing that after the last couple of over hyped seasons that the forecasts are calling for such high levels of activity. I would think that if anything, they might be a little gun shy... one more over hype, and people might start disregarding these forecasts as useless. I would think that they are aware of this, so it probably means that they are pretty confident that we are in for a busy season.

The TSR forecast was interesting because it utilizes only 2 predictors; strength of trade winds, and water temps.

The analog seasons of the CSU forecast show a lot fish storms historically, so lots of action may not necessarily mean a rough season for the coast.

exactly, i think this season too is overhyped as well

Oh please, we're screaming overhype already? The most active part of the season is still weeks away, give me a break.

[Category 5]

i did recall that there was a long lull between tropical storm harvey and hurricane irene in 2005 because of SAL

Irene formed while Harvey was still active.

In all practical senses, there were NO lulls in 2005.

oh let me correct that... there was long long lull of tropical cyclogenesis between hurricane IRENE and tropical storm JOSE

4 days is hardly a lull.

[Mecklenburg]

from NHC...

NOAA still expects above normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

what do they mean by that, does that mean that the NHC are now already expecting a below normal season?

[Category 5]

from NHC...

NOAA still expects above normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

what do they mean by that, does that mean that the NHC are now already expecting a below normal season?

It means that NOAA still expects an above normal hurricane season.

[Maestro]

What is "SAL"? (Sorry...Im a novice..)

[cycloneye]

What is "SAL"? (Sorry...Im a novice..)

SAL is Saharan Air Layer and that is the dust that blows in the Saharan Dessert in Northern Africa and then moves into the Atlantic Ocean.Here is a link where there is a complete explanation.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... round.html

[Mecklenburg]

when do you think the CSU and NOAA will have those remaining storms form? early september i guess..