Very unofficial- Texas season over?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Despite HWRF depictions of a Gustav sharp turn West, I didn't sweat it much.

Westerlies large and in charge next 15 days per 12Z GFS. If GFS is right, nothing coming soon...


Now, after hour 180, GFS has a lobotomy from about 35 km^2 resolution to 80 km^2 resolution, but if we trust it for the big picture, well. Not just a passing trough briefly reversing the prevailing mid-Summer Easterlies either.

7.5 days...



10 days


Two weeks

[MGC]

Ed, how do you like your crow? I could send you some from some of my misguesses......MGC

[Jason_B]

[Category 5]

Threads like this are among what my "2008 is a bust" thread is referring to.

I'm running out of these by the way.

[Brent]

[MBryant]

Will he be so wrong that he winds up being right?
Stay tuned!
Same Bat Time!
Same Bat Channel!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, my point that Fall came early, the sub-tropical ridge headed South, and most of Texas remains in the Westerlies for weeks on end, spot on.


And one more model wobble (or Ike wobble) SW, and this is a Mexico storm.


Surrender? I have not even begun to fight!

[lrak]

Well keep fighting Ed, I'm right behind you


I see the sign hanging off Ike!

"Baffin Bay or Bust!"

[HurricaneRobert]

I didn't want to say anything on this thread because I thought it was tempting fate.

Fortunately there are a lot people on the other thread (including myself!) saying it's definitely going to Houston-Galveston, which I think is unjinxing it for us. So I won't say anything else.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well keep fighting Ed, I'm right behind you


I see the sign hanging off Ike!

"Baffin Bay or Bust!"

If I am wrong, is there some irony that it is your house now targetted by the GFS? Hurricane travelling I-37 from CRP to SAT...


Anyway, 12Z model says Texas, maybe 12Z Euro says La Pesca.

[southerngreen]

"TEXAS SEASON OVER?" - I guess no one told Ike!

Of course, they say it's not over till the 'plus size' lady sings, so we'll have to wait for landfall, won't we?

[lrak]

more encouraging news, models recurve NORTH. For S TX that is, I'm not wishin this thing on anybody...shear, shear, shear!

[inda_iwall]

[KWT]

Well I think this thread proves that at least for Texas to make this thread in early September was always going to look stupid and it looks like thats coming true.

[tronbunny]

Well, there's no point arguing this...
It's OK to hope for the best.

[HurricaneRobert]

I think it's going to Galveston, unfortunately. Get ready for another $50-100 billion hit to a city, plus another dollar at the pumps. As a result, October will be a bloodbath for the US economy. Ike was a general. He knew all about strategery.

[AnnularCane]

"TEXAS SEASON OVER?" - I guess no one told Ike!

Nobody ever tells the canes. Perhaps we should talk to them more.

[DanKellFla]

"TEXAS SEASON OVER?" - I guess no one told Ike!

Nobody ever tells the canes. Perhaps we should talk to them more.

stupid cane, too young to listen to reason. We are NOT inviting over for dinner.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I could be way wrong, but it seems like an early Autumn pattern has set up a month early, and our friend the Wsterlies will be back a while. One October hurricane in 60 years in Texas for a reason, storms have a hard time bucking the Westerlies.


Pattern still has time to revert back to a more normal Summer pattern in the next few weeks, but it doesn't seem like it is in any hurry to change.

Not complaining, getting better rain chances for the lawn under mid-latitude Westerlies than we did all Summer except for Edoaurd.


Looking at the 0Z GFS ensembles, a couple of members suggest a pattern still risky for Texas, but most would suggest well South of, or recurving well before, Texas.





I wouldn't cancel the hurricane policy or flood insurance yet, however.

Very unofficially, even though Ike still has time to curve more and hit Louisiana, since we are getting some sprinkles, the wind is picking up, and it is cloudy, this thread may have been a bit premature. Those PMs, BTW, about how to bake crow, aren't very nice. But anyway. Since one of the fishing piers at GLS has fallen in the ocean, we have been at least somewhat affected by a tropical cyclone.


We had a two plus week period of Westerlies aloft, several cold frontal passages, and I made a small miscalculation. I may not repeat this prediction again next season, even if I am certain.


And no, I didn't jinx Texas. Bold, but slightly wrong predictions, just like w!shcasting for or against a hurricane to hit your home town or New York City, has no apparent effect on the weather, IMHO.

[southerngale]

Just in- "Texas Season Unofficially Over?" prediction may have been a smidge premature.

Ya think?