Area East of 94L Looking Interesting=(Is invest 95L)

[jconsor]

there is negative vorticity in the area

its not in a trough... its in a ridge

Derek- While I agree the upper level pattern around the system at 10N/30W is not one that traditionally favors tropical cyclone development, i'm not sure where you're getting the idea that there is negative vorticity in the vicinity. Check out http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7vor.html

Also, there is excellent upper level divergence and near sfc convergence.

[abajan]

there is negative vorticity in the area

its not in a trough... its in a ridge

Derek- While I agree the upper level pattern around the system at 10N/30W is not one that traditionally favors tropical cyclone development, i'm not sure where you're getting the idea that there is negative vorticity in the vicinity. Check out http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7vor.html

Also, there is excellent upper level divergence and near sfc convergence.

Hmm... ProMet vs ProMet. This could get interesting!

[Derecho]

there is negative vorticity in the area

its not in a trough... its in a ridge

How does something with negative vorticity develop a surface circulation with an uncontaminated 40 kt barb on QUIKSCAT?

[cheezyWXguy]

WHY IS THIS NOT AN INVEST YET!?!?! It is being somewhat sheared now, as the circulation center is on the north side of the center. However, as this passes 40 or 45 west, conditions improve greatly, as this system will not have to deal with the affects of the ull that 94L is putting up with. I see a much higher chance of development, seeing as this has deep convection AND a closed surface circulation.

[Derecho]

WHY IS THIS NOT AN INVEST YET!?!?! It is being somewhat sheared now, as the circulation center is on the north side of the center. However, as this passes 40 or 45 west, conditions improve greatly, as this system will not have to deal with the affects of the ull that 94L is putting up with. I see a much higher chance of development, seeing as this has deep convection AND a closed surface circulation.

Remember the QS pass was at 4PM eastern, and it's been moving WSW since then. Also there can be screwy QS issues with latitudes close to the equator.

[Vortex]

quite impressive this evening...Euro likes this system. Also, if it develops it looks like a large cyclone. I expect NHC to mention it in the TWO at 2am and likely an invest in the morning if it continues to persist.

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

It does look really good. It should be 95L soon at this rate...especially considering it has tropical storm-force winds.

[Clipper96]

This one has strong westerlies to work with:

[Sanibel]

Big cruiser holding convection passing 35W.

Strange synoptic around it. Looks like swirl is to its north. That could be the negative vorticity.

Go with its looks at this time of year. If it looks like it, it probably is in late August. Upstaging and overtaking 94L.

[Derek Ortt]

there is negative vorticity in the area

its not in a trough... its in a ridge

Derek- While I agree the upper level pattern around the system at 10N/30W is not one that traditionally favors tropical cyclone development, i'm not sure where you're getting the idea that there is negative vorticity in the vicinity. Check out http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7vor.html

Also, there is excellent upper level divergence and near sfc convergence.

when I was giving the HRD map discussion today, I plotted the CIMSS vorticity analysis. There was negative vorticity just SW of the system. Was a total shock to me as I was thinking this had a good chance in the morning.

[Derek Ortt]

the area of negative vorticity appears to still be there, just to the SW

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

very sharp gradient present between the disturbance and the region immediately to the south

[CrazyC83]

Do they do T-numbers on unclassified systems?

[Sanibel]

No.

[Scorpion]

Wow, it has a huge circulation. No wonder the Euro wants to make it the largest hurricane ever.

[BigA]

Could you link to the Euro please? This interests me. Thanks.

[RL3AO]

Could you link to the Euro please? This interests me. Thanks.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008082012!!step/

[cheezyWXguy]

Could you link to the Euro please? This interests me. Thanks.

last post on first page

[cheezyWXguy]

the area of negative vorticity appears to still be there, just to the SW

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

very sharp gradient present between the disturbance and the region immediately to the south

Yeah I see it...and i think it has to do with that band moving directly into the storm from the west. It likely wont develop for the next 24 hours because of this, but it should eventually stop affecting the system as it moves toward an area a little more favorable for development. It has persisted quite well and now has a closed llc. Development seems a good bet in a couple of days with this one.

[Clipper96]

Wow, it has a huge circulation. No wonder the Euro wants to make it the largest hurricane ever.

It wants to make it the largest, sloppiest tropical-storm ever, because it runs right over DR and Cuba just like Fay.