Is The 2008 Hurricane Season Winding Down Quickly?

[AnnularCane]

I think there's about 1% probability of Ike being the last named storm of the 2008 season... chances are by the end of September we'll be seeing at least Kyle and Lili...

You mean Josephine.

I wouldn't be surprised to see an autumn burst of activity.

[jinftl]

Isn't there a correlation between the MJO cycle and activity...did we enter a cycle that would equate to lower activity in the last week or 2? If so, this is temporary.....water temps are at their peak right now across the basin overall....very unlikely that conditions would have changed so much to preclude any additional development this season...under 1% chance of that if i had to guess.

Water temps are not the only criteria for development, but overall, the water is warmer than last year:



compared to 1 year ago

[somethingfunny]

Looks like the season is about over for the Northern Gulf. By this point there's not enough sunlight to erase the upwelling caused by the nonstop parade of Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike.

Then again the Caribbean has been largely empty south of Jamaica this year. The models are hinting at something popping up down there by next week...around the same time the MJO becomes positive (a factor I don't believe the models have any conception of but what do I know?) and it's still early in the hurricane season as far as recent years are concerned.

[jinftl]

Upwelling in the central gulf is significant....but the areas that are 0-1 deg C below normal.....when they are still above 82 deg in most cases...some well above....as most areas around florida are....is not going to be a huge deterrent to development that would otherwise still take place.

A track from the W Caribbean towards florida, for example (i.e., wilma or irene), would have very warm water to work with throughout its journey.

The upwelling within a short distance west of Key West will diminish soon i believe as no cold fronts are forecast in the area and with highs and lows in the 80s or higher, the water will return to warm 82+ conditions shortly...and has already warmed from last week per the loop in the 2nd map...

Looks like the season is about over for the Northern Gulf. By this point there's not enough sunlight to erase the upwelling caused by the nonstop parade of Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike.

Then again the Caribbean has been largely empty south of Jamaica this year. The models are hinting at something popping up down there by next week...around the same time the MJO becomes positive (a factor I don't believe the models have any conception of but what do I know?) and it's still early in the hurricane season as far as recent years are concerned.

[deltadog03]

Im gonna say no, its not dead, but I think winding down for sure. Mr. TUTT looks to rule the ATL for awhile.

[Jason_B]

Hopefully Ike was the last for one for the Gulf, this morning was the coolest morning since spring so obviously some changes going on in the atmosphere. I think we still have plenty of season left but IMO the action will shift more towards the east.

[jinftl]

The frontal boundary itself will need to be monitored....such areas can become areas for tropical development as they sit over areas such as where the current one is located...that front is not making it through most of florida any time soon....

[fasterdisaster]

I'd like you to know Blown Away, that in the 2 weeks or so between the cyclogenesis of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Jose in 2005, there were several threads pondering over if 2005 would slow down quickly. We all know how August 25 onward went.

[jinftl]

With the heat potential still left in the tropical atlantic, i would not be surprised to see a storm become a cat 4 or 5 in its lifespan more than see no more storms at all



vs. a year ago:

[Blown Away]

I'd like you to know Blown Away, that in the 2 weeks or so between the cyclogenesis of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Jose in 2005, there were several threads pondering over if 2005 would slow down quickly. We all know how August 25 onward went.

I agree but it's already Sept 16 and we are likely at least a week away from any cyclogenesis. The basin is dead when it's statistically supposed to be busy, by the time the MJO kicks in and an active phase begins the climatology clock has been ticking and I don't think we will see another 7 named storms, 4 of those being canes, and 2 of those majors.

[perk]

It's September 16 and we are just over the peak of the season and there is nothing out there that is even close to development and shear dominates the Atlantic basin. The models are not picking up potential development for at least another week. Maybe there will be an early October push, but it does not look good for Dr. Gray's 17 named systems forecast, we need 7 more from this point.

I disagree with you i don't think the season is over.You know we had another member make a similar prediction concerning Texas and we saw how that worked out.The season is over in November.

[jinftl]

In 2005, there was an 11-day gap between Ophelia on 9/6 and Philippe on 9/17....and Rita which also formed on 9/17. Stan didn't form until 10/1...a gap of almost 2 weeks. 9 named systems would follow Stan, including Wilma.

All seasons...even seasons like 2005...saw gaps in storm formation.

[Sanibel]

The Atlantic went suddenly hostile after Ike's departure with hostile shear throughout and subsidence zapping African waves right off the coast. Looks like early July.

Right now the weak lingering troughiness in the Caribbean reminds me of something looking to gell together in the post CV season. There's a weak frontal boundary in the Gulf and off the east coast as well.

[captain east]

The Atlantic went suddenly hostile after Ike's departure with hostile shear throughout and subsidence zapping African waves right off the coast. Looks like early July.

Right now the weak lingering troughiness in the Caribbean reminds me of something looking to gell together in the post CV season. There's a weak frontal boundary in the Gulf and off the east coast as well.

Do you mean it's looking like the late 2005 season?

[CoCo2]

I think there's about 1% probability of Ike being the last named storm of the 2008 season... chances are by the end of September we'll be seeing at least Kyle and Lili...

You mean Josephine.

I wouldn't be surprised to see an autumn burst of activity.

Josephine has come and gone. Altantic fish and fizzle. No one paid attention to her because of Ike.

[Sanibel]

Do you mean it's looking like the late 2005 season?

Sort of but weaker and earlier. No one can say with certainty in advance. Even in 2005.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It's September 16 and we are just over the peak of the season and there is nothing out there that is even close to development and shear dominates the Atlantic basin. The models are not picking up potential development for at least another week. Maybe there will be an early October push, but it does not look good for Dr. Gray's 17 named systems forecast, we need 7 more from this point.

I disagree with you i don't think the season is over.You know we had another member make a similar prediction concerning Texas and we saw how that worked out. The season is over in November.

Um, that was an Appalachian State defeating the Wolverines in the Big House in Ann Arbor kind of fluke, a hurricane hitting after several weeks of persistent upper Westerlies and several Autumn like cold frontal passages.


Anyway, however, the Central and Eastern Gulf, and the Southeast US are open to storms through October. Not shown, but Hurricane Kate shows that America's hurricane magnet, Florida, is open through November!



October 5-October 17, 1954


Note- the highest wind gust ever recorded in New York City, 113 mph, happened with Hazel after it had begun extra-tropical transition! (Per Wiki)

[Blown Away]

It's 9/17/08 and the forecast calls for 7/4/2 before the end of the season. I'll be surprised to see that total! A hurricane in Texas prior to mid September is not that unusual, the path it took to get there was unusual. Expecting 7/4/2 for late Sept/Oct is high expectations, this is not 2005!

[Ed Mahmoud]

:uarrow: It's 9/17/08 and the forecast calls for 7/4/2 before the end of the season. I'll be surprised to see that total! A hurricane in Texas prior to mid September is not that unusual, the path it took to get there was unusual. Expecting 7/4/2 for late Sept/Oct is high expectations, this is not 2005!

7 storms sounds unlikely, so Dr. Gray's numbers may not be exact, but four more hurricanes and two more majors with almost half of September and all of October to go sounds reachable. Maybe not probable, but certainly not impossible.

And, depending on how NHC feels about naming cut-off lows over the mid-Atlantic that take on some sub-tropical characteristics, quick spin ups on frontal zones in the sub-tropics, etc., even 7 named storms now to November 30 isn't completely impossible.

[jinftl]

Climatology shows we are at about 66% of the total named storms for the season as of mid-september. if that holds true in 2008, we can expect to add about 5 more to the total.....making for 15 named storms by the end of the season.