GOM, homebrew?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

When do you think this will reach Florida, I wanna know if it's gonna be a rainy day tomorrow..

Tomorrow it might not be rainy in SE FL, but by Tuesday the convection should
reach you, so Tuesday/Wednesday look wet.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=118

For southeast Florida- looks like 40% rain chance tomorrow, but ramping up to 50% for Tues-Wed.
The convective complex will reach the west coast by tomorrow, and should spread over the Florida
Southeast Coast by Tuesday...

[HurricaneRobert]

If you want a watered lawn and no power for a month then I hope it goes there.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If you want a watered lawn and no power for a month then I hope it goes there.

The wind profiles around this cluster are no where near strong enough to knock out
power, looks like a rain event though.

To lose power for a month, this thing would have to bomb to a category 1 in the next 6 hours- but that
is impossible LOL...too disorganized, too much shear, moving too fast.

[lrak]

How can I say this without offending a person like me w/o that much education regarding the atmosphere allowed to see satellite loops is like letting a butcher perform brain surgery after sleeping at a Holiday Inn the night before.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

How can I say this without offending a person like me w/o that much education regarding the atmosphere allowed to see satellite loops is like letting a butcher perform brain surgery after sleeping at a Holiday Inn the night before.

I'm no expert but I'll try to help:
If a trough moves near Texas, that might pull up moisture from the BOC complex
into maybe south Texas- some rain for you. If there is no trough, Texas should stay high and dry.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I wake up this afternoon (long night) and see low clouds moving fast down the coast and a brisk Northerly wind but with high pressure. The satellite loops show a broad circulation in the GOM and I was hoping a thread was already started to explain whats up? Anyone want to help out?

What tropical system are the Brownsville Mets talking about?

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.
SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB IN RESPONSE
TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO DEVELOP
MID WEEK IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BRIEF SCA CRITERIA COULD RESULT.
GFS INDICATING COPIOUS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRST SLUG ARRIVING MONDAY FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM ON THE MEXICAN WEST COAST OVERLAPPING BROAD AREA OF
LIFT COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED SHOWERS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE
MARINE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Um, 'West Coast' of Mexico, perhaps we are talking 90E?

[lrak]

I wake up this afternoon (long night) and see low clouds moving fast down the coast and a brisk Northerly wind but with high pressure. The satellite loops show a broad circulation in the GOM and I was hoping a thread was already started to explain whats up? Anyone want to help out?

What tropical system are the Brownsville Mets talking about?

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.
SEAS CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB IN RESPONSE
TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO DEVELOP
MID WEEK IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BRIEF SCA CRITERIA COULD RESULT.
GFS INDICATING COPIOUS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRST SLUG ARRIVING MONDAY FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM ON THE MEXICAN WEST COAST OVERLAPPING BROAD AREA OF
LIFT COULD RESULT IN ENHANCED SHOWERS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER THE
MARINE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?sit ... glossary=1

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Um, 'West Coast' of Mexico, perhaps we are talking 90E?

Doh!

well at least we got a couple of post counts from the thread :P

[Ptarmigan]

Um, 'West Coast' of Mexico, perhaps we are talking 90E?

Looks like from a frontal boundary to me.

[Ed Mahmoud]

90E

[lrak]

90E is a long way away now....Hmmm why is the Western GOM still turning a bit?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

also the rain is moving in a SW direction, not too common for S Tex.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

First convective complex moved over Florida today.

Multiple complexes are in the central and western Gulf, and appear
to be rotating around a ridge of high pressure, with the cloud
tops being sheared by some sort of trough in the east gulf.

[catastrophic]

this loop looks liike there is a crirculation with outd flow on the eas side especialy if u turn on the hdw-high http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rgb.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

Florida sub-tropical threat per 12Z GFS?



Appears to develop in the BOC on the tail of the front, and looks most 'tropical' on the vorticity in 5 1/2 days, before starting to shear apart.




Tail end of front in Gulf is looking a tad disturbed. (IR color loop)

[Sanibel]

Came in to post on the same thing.


Looks active in western Gulf.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

Convection moving East slowly; large area of deep convection;
12Z GFS forecasts a tropical storm in 5 days, and brings
it towards Florida.

This needs to be watched very closely.

[lrak]

look at the amount of rain fall.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

we've had a NE flow for almost a week now, along with a coastal flood advisory. Seems like something has to give.

[boca]

Something looks to be organizing in the BOC and you can see major convection moving noerthward into the S GOM.I also see slight rotation in this system. Hopefully it will stay away from TX/LA area.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

Something looks to be organizing in the BOC and you can see major convection moving noerthward into the S GOM.I also see slight rotation in this system. Hopefully it will stay away from TX/LA area.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

CIMMS steering suggests a circulation between 850 and 700 mb with the blog crossing Tehuanepec from the Pacific, so things could get interesting. Interestingly enough, CIMMS mean level steering for a number of intervals (corresponding to cyclones of various strengths), would seem to suggest that blob should be stationary or drifting to the Southwest, due flow between ridge over Texas and Eastern trough.


Lower level (weaker system) steering showing circulation.



Instead of the front itself being a trigger, the front may just disrupt the normal onshore flow into Texas/Mexico, that usually minimizes surface convergence, and the actual trigger may be a feature from the tropics.

Some low level convergence, upper divergence, and upper anticyclonic flow, per CIMMS, but the anticyclone is in the extreme deep BOC, and shear rapidly becomes hostile North of about 23ºN




0Z WRF 500 mb forecast suggests that Eastern trough retrogrades somewhat, and steering in the Southwest Gulf eventually turns more from the West in the next three days, so anything that does/could form, might tend to head in the general direction of Florida.


Unofficial, just my amateur opinion.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks a bit less impressive.

0Z GFS similar, but a tad less impressed at 120 hours, as old 12Z was at 132 hours.




Not overwhelming support from other models.

[Sanibel]

I see the axis center as being inland.