Area of disturbed wx in the EGOM

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Center relocation out over the western caribbean where the convection
is heavier?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

latest Obs show it still just north of Belize city( if there is a center).

True...1009 mb Low labeled on the fronts...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

These Images should Update Continuously.
Some Imagery: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl.html

[Ivanhater]

Model breakdown...

CMC


GFS


NOGAPS

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks Ivanhater...Those models are latching onto something.
East Gulf system...with a lot of rain on the East side of it

[jlauderdal]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Model breakdown...

No NAM from our pro-mets?

[tina25]

Jeff Masters latest blog..

Yucatan disturbance may threaten western Florida next week
A 1008 mb low pressure system in the Western Caribbean, just east of Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, has the potential for some slow development over the next few days. Visible satellite images show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that is currently not increasing in size. QuikSCAT from this morning showed top winds near 45 mph offshore of Belize in the heaviest thunderstorm activity, but no sign of a surface circulation. Wind shear is about 10-20 knots over the region, which is low enough to allow some slow development. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict the low will start to develop over the next few days, although interaction with the landmass of the Yucatan Peninsula will be a problem for it. The low should lift northeastwards beginning Monday, and the west coast of Florida can anticipate heavy rains from this system by Wednesday. NOAA is predicting up to four inches of rain may fall over southern Florida (Figure 2). Due to the very high wind shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico, this storm will not be a threat to the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 271739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KYLE...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERNMOST AZORES. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[DAVE440]

I know the probability for development is low currently...but it does look better organized than yesterday.

I'm sure everyone remembers...this is about where a tropical system was getting better organized Late Oct 2005 and eventually became Hurricane Wilma. Wilma started as a tropical wave much earlier and in the Carribean around Cuba then didn't really do much as it was hovering around Central America....but once it moved off the coast
and started getting up a head of steam....Wilma came to life.

As far as what may steer this current tropical wave and whether it may develop in days to come...it may be interesting to compare conditions that existed when Wilma was forming...to current conditions and the near term wx forecast for the vicinity then look for correlations. A task for someone better at data gathering and analysis than I am.

Here's a link which has forecast info on Wilma and what conditions were present that helped steer the system and further its development.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Wilma

[jlauderdal]

Here are some thoughts on the system, its like deja vu since i thought i had seen this idea earlier today..

the boundary to our south seemed to have been making some northward progress this morning but that appears to have halted for now.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008



MON-TUE...ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERS SFC PRES INVOF THE YUCATAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH FORCED ASCENT
IN TAIL OF H25 JET OVER THE SERN GOMEX EVENTUALLY A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SHOULD PICK UP WHATEVER IS OUT THERE AND LIFT IT NEWD TOWARD
FL. MODELS HAVE VARYING SOLNS AS TO HOW STRONG OF A SFC LOW FORMS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE A SLOPPY RIGHT-SIDED
PARTLY TO MOSTLY BAROCLINIC SYSTEM...PERHAPS TRYING TO BRIEFLY TAKE
ON TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS EARLY ON...BEFORE EJECTING/ACCELERTING
NEWD WHILST TRENDING BACK TWD A PURE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. W/R/T THE
ONGOING FCST...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND POPS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH HIGH END SCT POPS NORTH/LKLY SOUTH MON...
THE LKLY AREAWIDE TUE. THESE NUMBERS MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED UPWARD
MON NGT/TUE DEPENDING ON HOW ROBUST THE LOW AND ASCD MOISTURE
ADVECTION WINDS UP BEING.

WED-FRI...EXPECT SFC LOW OR TROUGH WILL WIND UP CROSSING FL WED...
WITH DCRSG POPS THU/FRI AS DRIER AND SLGTLY COOLER AIR WRAPS BACK
SWD INTO FL BEHIND IT.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
124 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)
A MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL STEER A LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARD
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A FOLLOWING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. MODELS VARY ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BUT AT THE VERY LEAST THE SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND RAIN. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

[Sanibel]

I'm seeing a surface feature with northerly inflow around 18N-92.4W drifting east. This is an overland position with a lot of land yet still ahead of it.

[Crostorm]

THE NEXT MAJOR CONCERN WILL BE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ORGANIZING
OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO DART NE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TUE AND BRIEFLY PASS THROUGH THE
FAR NW WATERS EARLY WED. AS IT APPROACHES...MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN
FACT...FOR AT LEAST 2 RUNS NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING S TO
SW WINS OF 20 TO 25 KT E OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH OUT TO
70W AND N OF 25N. WITH SUCH A LARGE FETCH...THE MODEL DEVELOPS
SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT BY WED MORNING AND 8 TO 12 FT LATER WED OVER
NORTHERN WATERS. MARINERS CAN ALSO EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS NEAR THIS FEATURE...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. IMMEDIATELY AFTER ITS PASSAGE...A
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GULF WED SHOULD PUSH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND MERGE WITH THE LOW HEADING NE. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF WIND IS INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE FLOW
WILL SHIFT NW TO N. ALL OF THE STRONGEST WINDS INSTEAD SHOULD
LIE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF IT.

FINALLY...TODAY THROUGH WED...NE SWELL FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SHOULD KEEP 5 TO 8 FT SEAS E OF 72W.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 272345
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED HURRICANE KYLE...LOCATED ABOUT 405 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET
MASSACHUSETTS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FALLING...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD AWAY FROM YUCATAN.
HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS DIMINISHED. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 475 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERNMOST AZORES. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[ronjon]

18Z GFS develops the low pressure as a warm core system near the Yucatan.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/08092718/45.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The system is broad and diffuse- disorganized, but it has 2-3 days at
least over some of the highest heat content waters before
hitting Florida's West Coast. There will be shear along the trough/future
baroclinic front; those factors considered, a tropical storm
or hybrid subtropical baroclinic storm is likely given the high
moisture content, but I feel that maximum winds should
be 60 mph by landfall- and that wind occuring in strong to severe
thunderstorm cells that will form along the front, on the east side.
Again, it may also be extratropical with tropical storm force winds,
but the 18Z GFS shows a warm core.

[HURAKAN]

Convection flares again.

[Ed Mahmoud]

6Z GFS develops it quickly, and just as quickly, starts to shear it apart as it approaches Florida.

[Sanibel]

Too long over land. The greater gravity of the trough it is engrained in is over in EPAC.

This could be a slow fuse developer waiting to get over water and let Kyle get further away, but right now it looks like it is dissipating.

On the other hand, though, the center is weak enough that a new one could form under the convection east of Yucatan.

[ronjon]

Focus on the north coast of the Yucatan as the day goes by. There is a broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula now that is progged to drift north. The GFS has consistently been developing the lowest pressure off the north coast.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Frank2]

In the past hour Steve Lyons (TWC) mentioned that perhaps this might form into a depression and move towards Florida if it did get organized, but, from what he said that would be the most of it...

The conditions really aren't that favorable since there are fairly strong southwesterly winds across the region at this time...