Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean (Is invest 96L)

[CourierPR]

Hurakan, will that wave enhance this system?

[HURAKAN]

Hurakan, will that wave enhance this system?

That's very likely but we have to wait. Usually when a frontal boundary interacts with a tropical wave you get an increase in convecton and this system has already been quite persistent.

[Sanibel]

Formational curvature suggests development.

[tolakram]

Looks like shear blowing the tops off to me.

[HURAKAN]

Still there.

[Sanibel]

A little far south but this is cool because it is late action.

Almost looks like a ULL drilling down. Axis could be over Panama.

[gatorcane]

Models are still generally showing lower pressures in the SW Caribbean for the next week or so but none of them are wanting to spin anything up more than a weak surface low. Still for this late in the season, it is something to watch considering the lack of activity across the Atlantic basin (as would be expected for Nov 20th)

[HURAKAN]

Low pressure now present.

[Sanibel]

If it is still there tomorrow morning: Persistence.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

Weak persistence but conditions aren't supporting it.

It's still cool that we had an inactive Spetember followed by an active Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

We can give it a trophy for persistence.

[Frank2]

It might actually form into something - we'll see...

Here's the weather ob from my favorite station, MPTO (Panama Canal Zone) - they always have an air temp of 30C, even in the winter (of course they are not too far from the equator):

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MPTO.html

it is interesting to note that they do have a WNW wind and a lowering pressure in the past hour (too early in the day for diurnal pressure falls, since they are on the same longitude as Miami), so, that might be an indication of something to their north...

I'll guess and say that it'll be mentioned in the next TWO, since it has persisted, as others mentioned here...

Frank

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2008


CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED N OF
PANAMA NEAR 10N81W. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS NE FROM THIS SURFACE LOW TO 15N77W TO 20N64W. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE FRONT IS
INTERACTING WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE S
CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
SE CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 60W-68W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS FROM
TRINIDAD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS S OF 16N. EXPECT... LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

Most of the Atlantic is ready for the end of the season, but the Caribbean Sea doesn't want to give up.

[HURAKAN]

PJRH - MARITIME-ship
Friday Nov. 21 - 18:00 UTCAir Temperature: 78°F
Dewpoint: 77°F
Wind: N at 28 mph
Pressure: 1012.6 mb
Weather: Sleet
Wave Height: 8 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 84.2°F

I don't know what this ship is serving because sleet in the South Caribbean is very difficult to get, even in the last Ice Age.

[Frank2]

No doubt (?) it's coded wrong, since that's from a 18Z weather observation in WMO format...

Per their call sign, that came from the vessel Cold Stream (Netherlands)...

Here's their observation summary:

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shippo ... ?call=PJRH

However, even in coded form it'd be ice pellets, not sleet (it was indicated as sleet, prior to 1970, per NOAA)...

It might have been small hail from a TS, but, it should have been indicated as hail, not ice pellets...

Still, it is Friday afternoon...

LOL

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Strongest convection.

[vbhoutex]

I haven't followed this one closely, but it appears to be stationary or wandering around. It is obviously further West than it was earlier in its' existence. Is there a definitive movement or trend of movement in any one direction? They are going to have to add another P to the alphabet if this one ever gets a name. It will be Persistance. Now is that a male or female name? Oh, uh, never mind. I know that answer!!!!!