Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

[ronjon]

Gulf low will need to be watched - lots of cold air advection now but that will start to mix out in a few days - latest GFS has this low pressure meander around in the GOM the next 5 days. Latest VIS SAT shows cloud breaks over the southern third of the peninsula - should see some strong storms develop there with the heating this afternoon.

[ronjon]

latest obs - gale force gusts along the NE FL coast the last 12-24 hrs. Wind even picking up in TPA.

CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
MAYPORT NAS LGT RAIN 64 63 96 NE32G44 30.00F FOG
JAX CRAIG RAIN 64 63 94 N23G31 30.01F FOG
ST AUGUSTINE RAIN 68 67 96 N23G40 29.97F FOG
CLEARWATER CLOUDY 70 64 81 N23G30 29.90F
TAMPA CLOUDY 68 63 84 N21G30 29.90F
ST PETERSBURG PTSUNNY 70 64 83 N22G32 29.88F

[gatorcane]

Looks like the circulation center is elongated SSW to NNE from an area just SW of Naples up through an area just east and north of Ft. Myers...and is stationary, as some members have noted. Here is the latest FLA vis loop clearly showing where the circulation center is located:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/fires-fl-vis-loop.html

Sunshine is coming through the cloud deck now over portions of Southern FL -- will be interesting to see if we get some POPS later on this afternoon as a result. A line of some heavy rain has just moved through the Delray Beach to Deerfield Beach corridor including Boca Raton. Movement will be SSE to NNW over Southern FL and ESE to WNW over central FL.

Due note mesoanalysis of surface winds for FL and adjacent waters still show no sign of a low-level circulation at this time.

[Weatherboy1]

Yes, I believe we at least have a surface low getting its act together around/north of Key West. Nothing more than that for now. This could -- if it hangs around long enough -- turn into one of those early-season hybrid type systems where you have an upper low and surface low roughly collocated. You know the ones i'm talking about -- a tight surface LLC that is largely "naked" with a huge comma-shaped shield of cloud cover/rain wrapped around the E/NE/NW side. But again, that will be a slow development process, if it develops at all.

[maxx9512]

A slot of dry air is about to come into SWFL. If this happens the ranfall forecast for all this heavy rain will never occur.
Once again a good to "great" chance for a nice heavy rainfall (or any, for that matter) depends
how much dry air gets in. Good thing the afternoon T.S. started last week here. Would have been nice to try to catch-up
on the drought. Maybe next time!

[floridasun78]

i hear thunder near miami airport area

[cycloneye]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1233 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

VALID MAY 19/1200 UTC THRU MAY 23/0000 UTC


...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...


12Z/19 NAM AND GFS EVALUATIONS


ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS.


...LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NAM IS SLOWER AND SPLIT WITH THE SURFACE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DAY 1 AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z/19 ECMWF.
FROM DAY 2 ONWARD...THE NAM OUTPACES THE OLD ECMWF WITH THE
PRIMARY LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. LIKE THE 00Z/19 ECMWF...THE
NEW GFS STAMPS THE MAIN SURFACE CENTER JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...00Z/20 WEDNESDAY...WITH
A COMPARABLE POSITION NORTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 12 HOURS
LATER. THEREAFTER THE GFS PEELS OFF TO THE LEFT OF THE NAM AND
OLD ECMWF.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO
BEYOND WEST CUBA NEAR 23N82W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING NE. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT IS PRODUCING NE SURFACE WINDS.
20-25 KT WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE 10-15 KT
WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF N OF 25N
AND E OF 87W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE NE GULF NEAR 27N84W. THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA HAS ABUNDANT
UPPER AIR MOISTURE WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF..[b]EXPECT...A 1009 MB LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION MOSTLY N OF THE
CENTER[/b]

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[gatorcane]

I think I see what could be the start of a surface low -- right around Sarasota County just south of Tampa....movement is slowly WSW into the GOM. It is definitely feeling some good ridging building in now from the NW...that should keep it on a WSW to W course.

Watch this area over the next 24-48 hours:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/fires-fl-vis-loop.html

Expect some slow development of this system over the next couple of days with a moderate to low 40% chance of becoming Ana at this time. 90L is dead but this one appears it may do more as it is going to stay over the GOM for several days with lower shear and SSTs around 80F. The biggest obstace will be for it to transition from mid-levels to lower-levels and to mix out the cold air aloft to form a vertically stacked, warm-core, again a 40% chance at this time.

I am surprised nobody is here (I predict this board will be crowded again by about 24 hours from now) - 90L is dead but this one is the real one to watch this week (90L was never the real one to watch in the first place). Recall the original thread said "Late this week"...we are tracking to the forecast.

[KWT]

I do think this one needs watching Gatorcane but there is a lot of cold air present and its going to need a lot of mixing out to do, certainly at least 3 days worth if not more...

Still it does need to be watched in much the same way as Andrea needed to be watched in 2007, which took a full three days over the gulf stream to change into a subtropical system.

[cycloneye]

This post is to inform the members that invest 90L officially has been deactivated.So if a new invest pops up from this it will be 91L.

[Aric Dunn]

finally see a more well defined low taking shape just west of naples... geez just woke up long night had some fun driving around this morning had some gust to near 50 mph along the coast..

sorry not naples Ft Myers but dropping SSW

[Downdraft]

As a guy who has been fighting wildfires around Central Florida for over a month this weather is an absolute and total blessing for us. We couldn't have gotten it any better if we had planned it. A lot of fire crews around this state are doing the happy dance right now! A week ago I had a parched totally dry retention pond in my back yard, this morning the ducks are diving in it. Lots of rain, no severe threat, no tropical blow just rain, rain and more rain. Thank you weather Gods!

[ronjon]

Lowest pressure now at Ft Myers at 28.80 as of 2 PM. West wind reported at Naples amd NW at KYW and Marathon.

[Aric Dunn]

Lowest pressure now at Ft Myers at 28.80 as of 2 PM. West wind reported at Naples amd NW at KYW and Marathon.

yep makes sense ..

[Bailey1777]

Looks like alot of people have cancelled out but isn't what is going on basically the way we thought it was going to play out? Patience is a virtue!

[Aric Dunn]

I think I see what could be the start of a surface low -- right around Sarasota County just south of Tampa....movement is slowly WSW into the GOM. It is definitely feeling some good ridging building in now from the NW...that should keep it on a WSW to W course.

Watch this area over the next 24-48 hours:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/fires-fl-vis-loop.html

Expect some slow development of this system over the next couple of days with a moderate to low 40% chance of becoming Ana at this time. 90L is dead but this one appears it may do more as it is going to stay over the GOM for several days with lower shear and SSTs around 80F. The biggest obstace will be for it to transition from mid-levels to lower-levels and to mix out the cold air aloft to form a vertically stacked, warm-core, again a 40% chance at this time.

I am surprised nobody is here (I predict this board will be crowded again by about 24 hours from now) - 90L is dead but this one is the real one to watch this week (90L was never the real one to watch in the first place). Recall the original thread said "Late this week"...we are tracking to the forecast.

yeah people will be back..
lol

yeah just read this post sounds fair enough

funny i can stiil track whats left of 90L"s swirl hehe
probably see some increased winds where ever it comes ashore

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The bahamas low was too weak anyways.
The extratropical cyclone over Florida may put out a surface
low over the gulf- right now the spins at the lower
levels (I think low level) is just off the SW coast
of FL near Fort Myers. With tremendous dry air west of
the upper low, but lots of moisture right over it...
some slow development is possible IMO...
The pressure gradient is enough to produce
TS Force winds over NE FL.

[Aric Dunn]

clearly see the low developing off the west coast of florida..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/loop-rgb.html

[KWT]

Yep the low is quite obvious to see there Aric, also can see 90L's remains becoming steadily absorbed by the non tropical low. Always a guessing game with these sorts of systems as to what they do, esp when they have a good 96hrs at least over warm enough waters.